Subject: How to make $600 MM this month
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 21 May 2001 15:28:21 -0700 (PDT)

John,

I think that diversification here is key. Provided that the correlation between power and gas or between different regions is less than 1 (which is almost always the case), simply spreading the investment over other commodities/regions will increase portfolio returns (i.e. same nominal P&L, less volatility).

More specifically, I would suggest the following:

1. ratchet up West "Bets"
	- I think that Tim is playing defense as of late ($7 MM P&L this month vs $600 MM in the last four months), yet he is one of the best traders
		and has the highest return on VaR for the past couple of years
	- Q4 Palo at $140 looks cheap as compared to MidC at $240, Q2-02 prices in the $80s look cheap as well
	- I will get more specific strategies on Friday after my return from Portland 
	- Cash trading - spot prices in the West were up ~$100 today

2. East desk has taken risk down in the last few days after making $122 MM this month alone. They need to reassess where they stand today and act appropriately. Some ideas are:
	- Long NY power
	- I would assess getting long SE/SERC this summer at prices below $100

3. NG Desk
	- NE: Long NY and Florida in anticipation of tight power and transmission/transportation constraints this summer
	- What is Tom Martin's secret - consistently high return on VaR and consistently positive P&L. Can it be replicated on other desks?

4. SA - get long power in Brazil by all means: close the Petrobras deal, any other prospects?

In general, I would challenge every region head to come up and describe profitable strategies (other than Nymex), based on their expertise, fundamentals, weather, etc.

Other wild ideas: 

5. Buy aluminum and steel - since a lot of smelters have been closed because of high electricity prices, aluminum and steel should get expensive

6. I am in Vegas the weekend of July 12th.

Vlady.