Message-ID: <22703917.1075851534936.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2001 16:02:05 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Thursday DOW -69.75 CRB -1.15 USD +0.08 S&P -8.48 NAS +6.38 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ALEWIS (Non-Privileged)\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: ALEWIS (Non-Privileged).pst T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is lower 1.15 points to 184.18. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.08 points to 114.35. The Dow Industrials trended lower by 69.75 points, at 9163.22, while the S&P 500 edged lower 8.48 points, last seen at 1068.61. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.20 at $66.95 today. Prices closed near the session low on reported commercial selling, after briefly probing above $68.00 early in the session. Poor boxed beef movement today offset ideas that cash cattle prices might trade steady to firmer this week. There were early reports from Nebraska that quoted dressed beef prices 50 cents higher than last week. December lean hogs closed up $0.10 today at $50.47. A firmer cash hog market today limited selling interest, as did lighter hog marketings the past couple days. Still, the bulls are on the ropes in this market. GRAINS: December corn futures closed 2 3/4 cents lower at $2.05 today. Prices closed at the session low. Weekly export sales came in about as expected and the market continues to feel pressure from harvest and uninspired demand. There was no follow-through buying interest today, so a bullish key reversal was not confirmed. November soybeans closed 3 1/4 cents lower at $4.30 3/4 today. Despite very solid weekly export sales figures for soybeans, meal and oil, reported early this morning, the markets could not rally on that news. This is an ominous sign for the bulls for at least the near term. There was no follow-through buying today, so a bullish key reversal up was not confirmed. December Chicago SRW wheat closed off 1 3/4 cents at $2.83 today. Prices pushed to a fresh seven-week high today, but could not hold gains and closed near the session low. Still, bulls should not be too displeased by today's price action. The recent rally in Dec. wheat raises the possibility of a double-bottom reversal pattern developing on the daily bar chart. This morning's weekly export sales figures came in about as expected and were not market-moving. First resistance is now seen at $2.88. First support lies at the $2.80 area. SOFTS: March N.Y. sugar closed 7 points lower at 6.56 cents today. Prices took a "rest day" today after pushing to a fresh two-week high Wednesday. The bulls have seen a nice mini run since the lows scored a little over a week ago. But overall, bears still have a technical edge. December N.Y. coffee closed 85 points higher at 45.60 cents today. Prices pushed to a high of 47.50 before backing off and closing near the session low. This week's activity in coffee is a bit encouraging to the bulls. However, it's too early to make anything significant out of it. Any increase in volatility at these low price levels will favor the bullish camp. December N.Y. cocoa closed $8 lower today, at $1,058. Prices took a "rest day" today after scoring a bullish key reversal up this week. Bulls are gaining momentum. If they can push prices back above the $1,086 level and fill the downside gap created on the daily bar chart a couple weeks ago, then bulls will be right back in the ball game. December cotton closed 35 points lower at 31.18 cents in quiet trading again today. Solid USDA weekly export sales for cotton failed to lift the market. But I do look for some more short covering in the coming sessions, but make no mistake: bears are in command. November orange juice on Wednesday afternoon closed at 85.85. That's off 25 points from the Tuesday evening close. Prices are due for some corrective consolidation after the recent big gains. Bulls have the edge. Last week's USDA Florida orange figure was termed bullish. METALS: December COMEX gold futures closed off $4.20 today at $279.80 an ounce. More technical damage was done today as prices fell below the $280 level. Bears are poised to push prices on down to the $275 area in the near term. December silver futures closed $0.107 lower at $4.263 an ounce today. Prices hit a fresh five-week low today as prices fell down into the upside gap area on the daily bar chart that was created in early September. December N.Y. copper closed 70 points lower at 63.20 cents. Prices today dropped to a fresh contract low of 63.00 cents. Bulls' hopes of some "basing" activity the past couple weeks have been dashed. Prices need to push above 66 cents and see a couple closes above that level before the bulls get much confidence. Next support is seen at 63.00 cents--the contract low. ENERGIES: December crude closed off $0.50 at $21.60 today. Prices dropped to another fresh four-week low today. A big bear flag continues to form on the daily chart. If there is a downside breakout from this big bear flag, which may be occurring right now, the measuring implications point to possible losses to well below $20.00 per barrel. December heating oil closed off 128 points, at .6162 today. Prices today matched the September low and are poised for more losses. It looks like a big bear flag is forming on the daily bar chart, and this week may have been the downside breakout from that pattern. December unleaded gasoline closed 126 points lower at .5737 today. Prices scored another fresh yearly low today. It looks like prices have broken out on the downside of a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart this week. December natural gas closed $0.117 higher at $2.82 today. The nat gas market is acting well, given the liquid energies continue to deteriorate. Prices pushed to a fresh five-week high Wednesday. Bulls have gained a bit of momentum, but bears have the overall advantage. STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed 13 points higher today at .9023. Bears have gained confidence recently. Prices are presently trading below a five-week-old downtrend line drawn off the September and October highs. The December Japanese yen closed up 7points at .8285 today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month low just Tuesday. Bears have control of the yen. A steep four- week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Next support is seen at 8236 level and then the .8200 level. First resistance is seen at the .8350 area. The December Swiss franc closed 17 points higher at .6118 today. While a steep four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart, a longer-term 3.5-month-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart remains intact. The stage is set for bulls and bears to do battle this week. The December Canadian dollar closed 35 points lower at .6328 today. Significant technical damage occurred in this currency today, as prices dropped sharply and are right back down close to the April and September lows. The December British pound closed 14 points lower at 1.4410. It was another quiet day today. The recent collapse in volatility makes me suspect a bigger price move is on the horizon. Bears have the slight edge. Technical damage has been inflicted recently. The September U.S. dollar index closed 4 points lower at 114.74 today. Bulls have made progress recently, but need to keep the pressure on the bears. It appears a head-and- shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. December U.S. T-bonds closed 3/32 higher at 106 26/32. Bulls are having a very good week, so far, and they needed it. Bulls can correctly argue this market was due for some corrective consolidation. The charts are still favoring the bulls. However, very strong resistance located just above the 107 even area stopped another bull run in bonds recently. December S&P 500 futures closed slightly lower today. Today there was follow-through selling and a bearish key reversal down was confirmed on the daily bar chart. Friday's price action, heading into the weekend, will be extra important for the index. The growing anthrax scare has spooked traders this week. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CFTC Adopts More Flexible Regulations For Intermediaries http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27081 SEC Announces System For Identifying Terrorist Transactions http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27080 NYBOT Announces New Margin Requirements For FINEX http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27079 Futures In Benzene And Mixed Xylenes Starting Oct. 19 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27078 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGZ1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Dec 2001 2.800 0.117 +4.33 SCZ1 Brent Crude Oil Dec 2001 20.55 0.56 +2.66 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1350.50 35.00 +2.66 KCU2 Coffee 'C' Sep 2002 52.00 1.30 +2.54 OZ2 Oats Dec 2002 135 3 +2.27 AFN3 Aluminum Jul 2003 0.6560 0.0145 +2.18 LBX1 Random Length Lumber Nov 2001 223.20 4.60 +2.10 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 72.150 1.150 +1.59 OJX1 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Nov 2001 86.95 1.10 +1.28 RRU2 Rough Rice Sep 2002 5.060 0.060 +1.20 LOSERS DAZ1 BFP Milk Dec 2001 10.90 -0.55 -4.80 LBU2 Random Length Lumber Sep 2002 255.20 -9.80 -3.70 AGZ1 Silver 1,000 oz. Dec 2001 4.206 -0.144 -3.31 PNX1 Propane Nov 2001 0.3910 -0.0130 -3.22 SIK2 Silver May 2002 4.307 -0.128 -2.90 DBZ1 Butter Dec 2001 136.000 -4.000 -2.86 XOZ1 Oats Dec 2001 183 3/4 -5 -2.66 PLV1 Platinum Oct 2001 431.3 -10.9 -2.48 QLZ1 Central Appalachian Coal Dec 2001 34.25 -0.85 -2.42 OZ1 Oats Dec 2001 183 3/4 -4 1/4 -2.26 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS DECT DECTRON INTL 7.4500 3.3600 +82.56 RIT RIGHTCHOICE MNGD CARE INC(DEL) 62.10 17.14 +38.00 TIVO TIVO INC 5.5400 1.0500 +23.08 BONZ INTERPORE INTL 8.2822 1.5000 +21.28 TESTC TEST SECURITY 43.5500 7.5100 +20.86 LABL MULTI-COLOR CORP 21.0300 3.8500 +20.37 IPIC INTERNEURON PHARMACEUTICALS 5.6500 0.8700 +18.20 TELM TELLIUM INC 5.1100 0.7500 +17.05 ISSX INTERNET SECURITY SYSTEMS INC 25.2300 3.5600 +16.29 OLN OLIN CORP 14.60 2.03 +15.96 LOSERS CPWM COST PLUS 16.9300 -6.3200 -27.71 SURE SUREBEAM CORP'A' 8.2000 -3.0900 -27.47 MNS MSC.SOFTWARE CORP 9.90 -2.75 -21.74 CPHD CEPHEID 5.4300 -1.2600 -18.86 DMRC DIGIMARC CORP 11.5600 -2.5600 -18.44 MIMS MIM CORP 10.6200 -2.2700 -17.53 TTN TITAN CORP 18.62 -3.89 -17.27 ESRX EXPRESS SCRIPTS INC 40.2900 -7.9200 -16.49 RX IMS HEALTH 22.89 -4.47 -16.34 SLNK SPECTRALINK CORP 14.6800 -2.6800 -15.67 *FREE: 38 PAGE BOOKLET - "TRADING TACTICS of the PROS" A must read!! Written by a legendary trader. http://www.ino.com/specials/firstamerican/tactics.html _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.