Message-ID: <18543769.1075861163063.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 14:58:00 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Monday USD +0.67 S&P +12.41 NAS +35.84 CRB +0.58 DOW +109.47 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ALEWIS (Non-Privileged)\Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: Lewis-A X-FileName: ALEWIS (Non-Privileged).pst M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index has climbed 0.58 points to 188.97. The US Dollar Index advanced 0.67 points to 117.08. The Dow Industrials advanced 109.47 points, at 9976.46, while the S&P 500 rose 12.41 points, last seen at 1151.06. The Nasdaq Composite rose 35.84 points to 1934.42. _____________________________________________________________________ * FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html _____________________________________________________________________ WHAT YOU MUST KNOW TO TRADE OPTIONS ON FUTURES http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWOV-Visually _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: Introducing the best guide to mastering the essentials of option trading we've ever seen. Paul Forchione, former option floor trader and trading advisor introduces TRADING OPTIONS VISUALLY. In this complete step-by-step guide, you will learn the safety first strategies that create millionaires. PLUS, you get complete support directly from the author and 12 weeks of Mr. Forchiones weekly advisory service! THIS OPPORTUNITY IS PERFECT RIGHT NOW!! 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Multiple closes above this resistance level would set the stage for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2000/2001 decline crossing at 2071.93 later this year. The December S&P 500 index also closed higher on Monday and is poised to test September's high crossing at 1163.90 possibly on Tuesday. The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's breakout above this summer's downtrend line. The stage is set for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the May/September decline crossing at 10,094.10 in the near future. Investors remain encouraged by reports of U.S. military victories in Afghanistan and ideas that the worse might be over for the economy. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest December T-bonds posted an inside day with a modestly higher close due to short covering following last Friday's spike below the 75% retracement level of the Sept./Oct. rally crossing at 104-29. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see another day or two of consolidation above last Friday's high. However, momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the end of November If the decline resumes, September's low crossing at 102-17 is December's next likely target. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Monday due to strength in energies, grains and livestock markets. However, closes above last week's high crossing at 190.46 are needed to renew this fall's rally. Momentum indicators are overbought and have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of November. Closes below last week's low at 186.23 would extend the CRB's decline off last week's high. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Monday with the exception of crude oil due to short covering ahead of the close. Early weakness was tied to indications that Russia is not considering any cuts in production. However, a short covering rebound in the markets ahead of the close as traders begin to square some of their short positions ahead of Tuesday's API inventory report erased early losses. December crude oil closed lower on Monday but near session highs due to a bounce ahead of the close. Early weakness led to a spike below the 75% retracement level of the 1998/2000 rally crossing at 16.83. Closes below this support level could lead to a test of the January 1999 reaction high crossing at 13.75 later this year. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible into the end of November. December heating oil closed slightly higher on Monday due to a short covering bounce ahead of the close. Session lows fell short of testing the 75% retracement level of the 1999/2000-rally crossing at 48.50. Monday's high-range close leaves the door open for additional short covering on Tuesday ahead of this week's API inventory report. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the end of November. December unleaded gas posted a key reversal up on Monday. However, today's short covering bounce fell short of testing broken support crossing at 51.87. I would not be surprised to see additional short covering on Tuesday as December consolidates some of its recent losses. However, the door remains open for a possible test of the June 1999 low crossing at 47.00 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December Henry Hub natural gas closed higher on Monday confirming last Friday's upside reversal. Forecasts calling for colder temperatures to move across the high demand regions of the country by the end of November prompted today's short covering rally. Closes above last week's high crossing at 2.87 would greatly increase the odds that last week's low marked a double bottom with October's low. Short- term momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or near. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The December Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Monday but ended the day below last Wednesday's high at 117.05. Closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm a breakout above this falls trading range. Profit taking ahead of the close erased most of today's gains while leaving the door open for a setback on Tuesday. If today's gap were filled, it would indicate that the gap was an exhaustion gap and today's high was nothing more than a spike above trading range. Stochastics are bullish but becoming overbought hinting a short-term top might be in or is near. The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday but near session highs due to a late-day bounce. Closes above last Friday's high at .6045 would renew its short covering bounce off last Wednesday's low. Closes below last week's low at .5961 are needed to renew December's decline and set the stage for a likely test of the 50% retracement level of the July/September rally crossing at .5944. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the later part of November. The December Canadian Dollar closed modestly higher on Monday as it extended last week's breakout above October's broken downtrend line. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. If the rebound off last week's low continues, the 25% retracement level of the July/November decline crossing at .6322 is December's next upside target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. The December Japanese Yen closed below October's low crossing at .8132 on Monday thereby opening the door for additional weakness into the end of November. If the decline off September's high continues, July's low crossing at .8060 is a potential target later this year. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of November. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals December gold spiked below August's reaction low crossing at 272.60 before a short covering bounce tempered some of today's losses. Closes below this key support level would open the door for a possible test of August's reaction low crossing at 268.40 later this year. Strength in the U.S. Dollar and equities provided much of today's pressure on the market. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the end of November. December silver posted a new low close for November, as it appears poised to renew this fall's decline following the recent breakout below key support crossing at 4.15. Close below 4.055 cents would open the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 3.90 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December copper closed higher on Monday confirming last Friday's key reversal up. However, today's low-range close leaves the door open for a possible setback on Tuesday. Closes above last week's high at 69.60 are needed to renew December's rebound off November's low. Closes below 66.70 would all but confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted. Short-term momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought hinting that a round of profit taking could begin later this week. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn gapped up and closed higher on Monday due to technical buying. Session highs tested the bottom of October's gap crossing at 2.21 1/2. Closes above this resistance level would likely trigger additional fund short covering now that this year's harvest is almost wrapped up. However, it will take closes above the top of October's gap crossing at 2.25 1/4, which coincides with this summer's downtrend line to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of November. March wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's impressive rally. I would not be surprised to see a steady to lower close on Tuesday as March might try and consolidate some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of November. If the rebound off last week's low continues, October's high at 3.03 is March's next target. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains January soybeans closed fractionally lower on Monday due to light profit taking after filling October's gap at 4.54 in early trading. Additional pressure came from spillover weakness from soybean meal however, losses were limited due to light producer selling. Closes above today's high are needed to open the door for a larger-degree post-harvest rebound that could last into the end of the year. Momentum indicators remain overbought while trend-following indicators such as the ADX are entering bullish trend modes signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. December soybean meal closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Monday after testing the upper boundary of the October/November trading range crossing at 167. Today's low- range close leaves the door open for additional selling on Tuesday. Until December closes above 167, it will remain a trading range affair. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs closed higher on Monday but near session lows due to bull spreading by commercials and funds. Continued weakness in the cash market along with spillover selling late in the day from bellies also tempered early gains. If the rebound off last week's low continues, the early- November high crossing at 55.12 is February's next target. Closes above this resistance level are needed to extend February's rally off October's low. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of November. February cattle closed higher on Monday for the fifth day in a row despite most traders calling last Friday's cattle-on- feed report bearish. February's ability to rally on bearish news confirms that the early-November decline had already factored in last Friday's bearish report. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. Closes above the September/October downtrend line crossing near 70.50 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed lower on Monday due to first-notice day sales by hedgers. With the market closed Thursday and Friday, today's losses might have been somewhat exaggerated. March needs to close above last week's high, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the May/October decline crossing at 53.04. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to open the door for a larger-degree rebound into the end of the year. Closes below last week's low at 47.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. March cocoa closed higher on Monday but near mid-range as it consolidates above last February's high at 1257. If this resistance level is cleared, the March 1999 reaction high crossing at 1341 is March's next upside target. Momentum indicators have become overbought while trend-following indicators such as the ADX are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of November. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. March sugar closed higher on Monday and appears poised to test the 50% retracement level of the June/October decline crossing at 755 later this month. Weekly momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into late-November. Closes below last Wednesday's gap crossing at 726 would increase the odds that a short- term top has likely been posted. March cotton closed lower on Monday amidst selling ahead of first notice day. Heavy commercial and producer selling on Monday overshadowed last Friday's bullish export report indicating that the short covering rebound off October's low might be coming to an end. While export demand has been strong with cumulative sales running at 83.3% of USDA's projection compared with 61.9% for this time of near, this year's bumper U.S. crop will continue to limit near-term upside potential in the market. Momentum indicators are bullish but overbought warning bullish traders to use caution. Closes below last Thursday's low at 35.00 would confirm that a short-term top was posted last Wednesday. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CBOT T-Bond Volume And Open Interest Jumps http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27529 Hong Kong, Shanghai And Shenzhen Start Joint Data Service http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27528 CME Open Outcry Trading Posts Record Day http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27527 CFTC Seeks To Suspend Midland Euro Of California http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27526 CME Reduces Thresholds For Eurodollar Block Trading http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27525 CME Receives Favorable IRS Ruling For Holding Company http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27524 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGZ1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Dec 2001 2.791 0.173 +6.56 HOU2 Heating Oil Sep 2002 0.5527 0.0244 +4.45 NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1628.00 42.00 +2.65 XHZ1 Lean Hogs Dec 2001 49.20 1.15 +2.39 LHZ1 Lean Hogs Dec 2001 49.200 1.150 +2.29 XLZ1 Live Cattle Dec 2001 66.27 1.45 +2.23 PLF2 Platinum Jan 2002 437 9.1 +2.13 LCZ1 Live Cattle Dec 2001 66.275 1.350 +2.08 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10815 220 +2.08 SIZ5 Silver Dec 2005 4.429 0.089 +2.00 LOSERS PNF2 Propane Jan 2002 0.2950 -0.0250 -8.00 KCZ1 Coffee 'C' Dec 2001 45.95 -3.65 -7.50 SCF2 Brent Crude Oil Jan 2002 18.00 -0.56 -3.15 CLN2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2002 19.61 -0.60 -3.09 XOK2 Oats May 2002 191 1/2 -5 1/2 -2.83 HUJ2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Apr 20 0.5980 -0.0098 -1.65 XEZ1 Soybean Meal Dec 2001 163.2 -2.6 -1.57 OK2 Oats May 2002 191 1/2 -3 -1.54 CTZ1 Cotton Dec 2001 34.09 -0.51 -1.47 SMZ1 Soybean Meal Dec 2001 163.2 -2.4 -1.45 *TWO FREE VIDEOS ON OPTIONS TRADING! Learn How To Optimize Your Stock Portfolio With Options http://www.ino.com/specials/oic/video.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SCMM SCM MICROSYSTEMS 11.7500 3.6300 +43.89 LSBC LARGE SCALE BIOLOGY 5.4000 1.4386 +39.96 JAZZ JAZZTEL PLC ADS 6.3000 1.7400 +37.42 HAND HANDSPRING INC 5.4100 1.4090 +35.23 CANI CARREKER CORP 5.8700 1.4799 +34.34 DITC DITECH COMMUNICATIONS CORP 6.0700 1.4800 +32.10 LCBM LIFECORE BIOMEDICAL 12.2200 2.8900 +29.49 ORCI OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION 6.0800 1.2700 +26.40 REXL REXHALL INDUS 6.2200 1.2800 +25.91 INVN INVISION TECHNOLOGIES 18.4200 3.6480 +24.60 LOSERS RDY DR. REDDY'S LABS ADS 17.55 -4.09 -18.98 BTY BRITISH TELECOM 42.25 -8.35 -16.53 RLRN RENAISSANCE LEARNING INC 25.8800 -4.6550 -15.23 ICTS ICTS INTL NV 6.7000 -1.2000 -15.19 VINT GOLDEN STATE VINTNERS'B' 5.4000 -0.8200 -14.91 SNAP SYNAPTIC PHARMACEUTICAL 5.6500 -0.7700 -13.05 CRY CRYOLIFE INC 26.69 -3.91 -12.78 HLEX HEALTHEXTRAS INC 6.1600 -0.8200 -12.62 LWAY LIFEWAY FOODS INC 5.7295 -0.8000 -12.12 RMCI RIGHT MGMT CONSULTANTS 19.2000 -2.6400 -12.04 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. 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