Message-ID: <3250652.1075840976949.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:21:03 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Monday DOW +25.67 CRB -1.98 USD +0.05 NAS +6.22 S&P -0.22 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index has retreated 1.98 points to 187.87. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.05 points to 119.90. The Dow Industrials advanced 25.67 points, at 9865.75, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.22 points, last seen at 1133.06. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 6.22 points to 1943.92. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE: FUTURES INTRODUCTORY COURSE BOOKLET Learn To Analyze The Markets Like A Professional http://www.ino.com/specials/ira/academy.html _____________________________________________________________________ THE GOLDEN SECRET OF PRICE, TIME AND MARKET SYMMETRY http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWPD-DayTrade _____________________________________________________________________ Best Selling Day Trading Guide - NOW WITH FREE BONUS AUDIO TAPE! Dear Andrew: See How One Trader Average A Documented $42,704 Profit Per Month... ...For 3 Straight Years! You can know when and where price will turn in every market. Short-term and intra-day moves and turning points can be pinpointed - absolutely! Discover the price and time forces that propel and even drive the market each trading day. These forces are nothing less than amazing. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed slightly higher on Monday in subdued trading as traders and investors await the FOMC meeting decision regarding interest rates on Wednesday. The NASDAQ is hovering above the 25% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 1930.89. Momentum indicators are bottoming and turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low is in or near. The NASDAQ closed up 6.22 points at 1943.92. The March S&P 500 index also closed slightly higher on Monday up 2.20 points at 1135.50 while hinting that last week's lows might have marked a double bottom with December's lows. The Dow closed slightly higher on Monday although trading was sluggish ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. As the earnings season winds down, market watchers say the focus is shifting to the economy while investors are cautious ahead of the barrage of economic data expected later this week. Last week's breakout above January's downtrend line signaled that a short-term bottom has likely been posted. However, the Dow is likely to remain range bound possibly into early spring or until it sees significant economic improvement. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Monday as traders await the Fed.'s decision regarding interest rates on Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see another narrow range day on Tuesday as March continues to consolidate above the December-January uptrend line crossing near 101-00. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-February. Most traders are not looking for any change in interest rates based upon last week's comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan regarding a potential turnaround in the U.S. economy. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index posted a key reversal down on Monday thereby renewing its decline off January's high. The CRB index has now retraced 62% of the October-January rally crossing at 187.85. Momentum indicators are oversold but indicate that additional weakness is possible near-term. Weakness in some precious metals, fiber, some foods and energies pressured the CRB index today. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level crossing at 185.93 is the CRB's next likely target. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Monday amidst lackluster demand and growing inventories, which continue to offset lower production by OPEC and non-OPEC nations. The energy markets are likely to remain range bound for some time until we see a pickup in demand. March crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday hinting of a possible end to last week's short covering rebound. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that we could see sideways to higher prices into the first half of February. Multiple closes above broken trendline support crossing near 20.00 could trigger additional short covering gains near-term. March heating oil closed modestly lower on Monday thereby ending last week's short covering bounce that failed to test minor resistance crossing at 54.70. Closes above 54.70 or below 51.30 are needed to confirm a breakout of January's trading range. March appears to be forming a triple bottom but this has yet to be confirmed. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February. March unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Monday after retracing 50% of this month's decline last week. However, the modest sell off on Monday leaves March posted to extend its rebound off January's low into early-February. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Longer-term, I am looking for March to work its way higher possibly testing the 62-cent area by early-February. March Henry Hub natural gas posted a new contract low on Monday amidst low demand and bearish extended weather forecasts for high-demand regions of the country. Today's close below 2.00 sets the stage for a test of weekly support crossing at 1.76 later this winter. Momentum indicators are oversold but suggest that additional weakness near-term is possible. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar soared to new contract highs on Monday but fell short of testing last year's high crossing at 121.29. Profit taking late in the session tempered some of today's gains as March closed mid-range for the day. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. If the rally continues, last year's high, which coincides with monthly fib resistance crossing at 121.58 are March's next upside targets later this week. I am looking for lackluster trading on Tuesday as the market will likely take a breather ahead of Wednesday's decision by the FOMC regarding interest rates. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting at the very least that we could see a brief pause near current prices. The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday but fell short of testing December's spike low crossing at .5797 before a short covering rebound unfolded ahead of the close. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a short covering bounce on Tuesday. However, the daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely into early-February. The March Canadian Dollar posted a potential key reversal up on Monday thereby ending the two-day correction off last week's high. Additional strength on Tuesday along with a close above this winter's downtrend line crossing near .6250 is needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish with today's reversal pattern but needs to see additional strength before giving buy signals. The March Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Monday due to short covering but remains below broken weekly support crossing at .7558. Closes above .7558 and last fall's downtrend line crossing near .7600 are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted. Today's rally turned a number of momentum indicators, which have been diverging, bullish thereby increasing the odds that a short-term bottom might be in place. If the decline continues, next level of long- term support crossing at .7371 is March's next target later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed modestly higher on Monday due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 278.70. However, the strong U.S. Dollar is hurting overseas jewelry and investor demand for gold, which leaves the market vulnerable to additional long-liquidation into early- February. Stochastics are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early-February. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 276 is February's next target. March silver closed lower on Monday as it renewed this month's decline following last Friday's short covering bounce, which led to a test of broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.327. Today's resumption of January's sell off sets the stage for a test of the 75% retracement level crossing at 4.221 later this week. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early February. March copper closed lower on Monday thereby confirming last Friday's downside reversal. Momentum indicators are turning bearish with the sell off from last Friday's high thereby increasing the odds that a double top with the early January high was posted last week. Closes below last week's low crossing at 69.20 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Monday in sympathy with wheat along with a lackluster weekly inspection report released this morning. This morning's report came in at 27.030 million bushels down 14.6% from the previous week but up 7% from the same period last year. Additional pressure came from weekend rains across dry portions of southern Brazil and Argentina, which will help stabilize yields. The soaring U.S. Dollar is also having an impact on export demand despite relatively low domestic prices. The sharp declines in Asian currencies continue to make U.S. corn and soybeans less competitive on the world market, which has resulted in sluggish export demand. Unless we see a significant setback in the U.S. Dollar and or further yield reductions in South American's corn crop potential the corn market is likely to struggle into the first half of February when a mid-winter low is due to be posted. March wheat closed sharply lower on Monday following last Friday's commitment of trader's report, which showed a larger-than-expected speculative long position in the market. This report triggered long-liquidation through out the day and was exacerbated by this morning's disappointing export inspection report. The report came in at 13.449 million bushels compared with last week's 19.691 million bushels. Once March wheat traded below December's uptrend line crossing near 2.94, sell stops were triggered thereby exaggerating today's loss. Momentum indicators remain bearish indicating that additional weakness is possible into early-February. I am looking for a test of the late-December reaction low crossing at 2.83 by the middle of February. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans actually managed to close fractionally higher following a gap lower opening that was triggered by weekend rains across dry regions of Southern Brazil including the stage of Rio Grande do Sul. The gap lower opening triggered additional selling as March filled the gap at 4.26 3/4. However, stop loss selling combined with ideas that the bearish weekend weather across South America had largely been factored into prices with last Friday's sharp sell off allows for a short covering rally to unfold into the close. Light support came from today's strong export inspection report that came in at 35.475 million bushels, up from last week's 33.731 million bushels. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-February. I would not rule out a test of the early January low, which crosses at 4.15 3/4. March soybean meal gapped down on the open following overnight weakness triggered by weekend rains across South America. However, a short covering rally unfolded when March was unable to fill the January 11th gap crossing at 147.90 in early trading. Once this morning's gap at 150.30 was filled additional short covering was triggered which led to the posting of an upside reversal on Monday. Today's high- range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening in access trading. Additional strength on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's friendly reversal pattern. At the same time, momentum indicators remain bearish warning bullish traders that additional weakness is possible into early-February. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed lower on Monday however, a short covering rally into the close tempered early losses. April gapped down on the open despite calls for a steady to firmer opening. Last Friday's monthly hogs and pigs' report indicated that 3% more hogs could come to the market in the May/June time frame than had previously been expected, which triggered the lower opening. Opening losses were limited due to steady to 50-cents higher cash bids. Technically, April hogs remain below broken trendline support. However, today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Tuesday. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 61.50 would open the door for a possible challenge of the contract high crossing at 61.90. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish following the rebound off last week's low and leaves the door open for sideways to higher prices into the first half of February. April cattle posted a new high close for the year on Monday. Support was due to spread shifting from February to the April contract along with expectations for steady to higher cash bids this coming week. April cattle are poised to test October's high at 75.45 possibly later this week. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Tuesday. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed lower on Monday amidst increased fund and producer selling. With first notice day coming up, it means that the market will see increased producer pricing. The stage is set for a test of this winter's low crossing at 44.75 possibly on Tuesday. Multiple closes below this support level would confirm a trading range breakout while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into late winter. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cocoa closed slightly lower on Monday after a gap higher opening failed to attract follow-through buying. Short-term momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, closes above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. March sugar closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's short covering rebound. Session highs fell short of testing last week's gap crossing at 730. If this gap were closed, it would signal that a double bottom with December's low crossing at 690 has likely been posted. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but oversold hinting that at the very least we should see some kind of short covering rebound off the 690 support level. March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday thereby signaling an end to last Friday's short covering bounce. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that a test of trading range support crossing near 34.91 is possible later this month. Until participants can get a better handle on the size of this year's cotton crop and or export demand improves, March cotton will remain range bound from 39.80 down to 34.91. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ NYSE And Dow Jones Sign Stock Index Agreement http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27739 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS SEK3 Sugar #14 Domestic May 2003 20.95 0.95 +4.52 QLH2 Central Appalachian Coal Mar 2002 27.00 0.79 +2.93 LBU2 Random Length Lumber Sep 2002 293.60 6.50 +2.25 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.2925 0.0050 +1.72 SMH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 153.3 2.1 +1.39 PLF2 Platinum Jan 2002 465.2 5.3 +1.13 CLV2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Oct 2002 20.58 0.23 +1.12 XPH2 British Pound Mar 2002 1.4200 0.0156 +1.11 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10155 100 +0.99 CCZ3 Cocoa Dec 2003 1167 11 +0.93 LOSERS NGJ2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Apr 2002 2.079 -0.110 -5.05 PAM2 Palladium Jun 2002 377.00 -14.15 -3.65 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.192 -0.147 -3.39 RAM2 South African Rand Jun 2002 0.084175 -0.002550 -3.00 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 187 1/2 -5 3/4 -2.98 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 291 1/4 -8 -2.68 PBG2 Frozen Pork Bellies Feb 2002 74.725 -2.000 -2.60 KWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 288 3/4 -7 1/4 -2.45 HGM2 Copper Jun 2002 0.7085 -0.0170 -2.36 WN2 Wheat Jul 2002 295 1/2 -7 -2.31 FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar & Free Online Trading Software CD Rom http://www.ino.com/specials/linngroup/calendar.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS TESTV TEST SECURITY 57.9700 16.5500 +40.02 XOSY IXOS SOFTWARE ADS 6.3500 1.0100 +18.91 ROOM HOTEL RESERVATIONS NTWK'A' 52.2500 7.9090 +17.87 TVLY TRAVELOCITY.COM INC 26.6000 3.7600 +16.53 NWRE NEOWARE SYSTEMS 8.0200 1.0900 +15.68 RNBO RAINBOW TECHNOLOGIES 12.2500 1.6000 +15.09 SNOW SNOWBALL.COM INC 7.0000 0.8500 +13.82 XRX XEROX CORP 11.24 1.30 +13.13 ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 9.00 1.02 +12.78 MDCI MEDICAL ACTION INDUSTRIES 17.5700 1.9900 +12.70 LOSERS WWCA WESTERN WIRELESS'A' 9.9000 -5.5300 -36.31 ELN+B ELAN CORP PLC WTS CL B 14.50 -6.05 -28.81 NOVT NOVOSTE CORP 8.1800 -3.1790 -28.31 EXLT EXULT INC 8.7400 -3.2500 -27.11 AFFX AFFYMETRIX INC 30.9300 -5.8500 -15.90 ACRT ACTRADE FINANCIAL TECH LTD 22.7500 -3.5790 -13.45 FWC-A FOST WHEELER PFD CAP TR I 9% 5.99 -0.85 -12.41 MXT METRIS COS INC 14.25 -2.00 -12.30 HPLA HPL TECHNOLOGIES 12.2000 -1.6500 -11.96 PCCC PC CONNECTION 11.7800 -1.5400 -11.80 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. 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