Message-ID: <24015308.1075840980984.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 14:29:44 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Wednesday DOW +17.16 USD +0.70 CRB +0.24 NAS +39.85 S&P +8.87 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com>@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index has gained 0.24 points to 189.33. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.70 points to 118.45. The Dow Industrials gained 17.16 points, at 9730.96, while the S&P 500 advanced 8.87 points, last seen at 1128.18. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday following the release of positive earnings reports by a number of tech stocks such as Novellus, a maker of wafers for the chip industry. Hyperion Solutions, a maker of client server software also posted better than expected earnings. The NASDAQ closed higher on Wednesday but fell short of testing the 25% retracement level of the rally off last September's low, which crosses at 1930.89. This leaves the door open for additional weakness with the 38% retracement level crossing at 1826.96 later this winter. The NASDAQ closed up 39.85 points at 1922.38. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated above the 25% retracement level of the rally off September's low crossing at 1122.57. Multiple closes above last week's high at 1150 will be needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The March S&P 500 closed up 7.70 points at 1129. The Dow closed slightly higher on Wednesday amidst support from on-target earnings reports from Boeing, Caterpillar, Merrill Lynch and Pfizer. Slightly better than expected earnings figures came from Exxon Mobil. The Dow managed to closes just above key fib support crossing at 9706.20. Closes above minor resistance crossing at 9857.70 would help temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Short- term momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold hinting that at the very least we could see a short covering bounce possibly into the end of January. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday thereby confirming last week's breakout below January's uptrend line. Much of today's pressure was due to a rebound in the equity markets and uncertainty over Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's comments on Thursday regarding the economy. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish from overbought conditions with today's sell off and signal that additional weakness is possible into the end of January. If the decline continues, the December-January uptrend line crossing near 100-20 is March's next target. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday due to light short covering triggered by strength in some livestock markets, some foods and energies. The CRB is pausing around the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 189.40. If this decline continues, the 62% retracement level crossing at 187.85 is the CRB's next target. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Wednesday with the exception of natural gas, which posted a new contract low. Contract rolling from February to the March contract along with continued technical short covering off last week's lows continues to underpin this week's rebounds in crude oil and the products. The reaction to this afternoon's inventory report will speak volumes about the underlying tone of the markets. If prices continue to rebound following a bearish report it would indicate that the bearish news has already been factored into prices. March crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and above January's downtrend line thereby hinting that a short-term bottom might be in place. Closes above last fall's broken uptrend line crossing near 20.00 are needed before a bottom is confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but turning neutral to bullish with this week's rebound hinting that a low is in or near. March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday but remains locked in last week's trading range. Closes above 54.70 or below 51.20 are needed to confirm a breakout of this trading range and point the direction of the next minor trending move. Momentum indicators are bearish but oversold while trend-following indicators are in position to confirm a trading range breakout. This afternoon's API inventory report might provide the catalyst needed for a trend change. March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday thereby confirming the recent breakout above January's downtrend line. Today's rally turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or near following last week's test of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 55.10. Closes below this uptrend line would open the door for a test of last fall's lows beginning at 53.00 and extending down to 51.90. March Henry Hub natural gas closed into new contract lows on Wednesday pressured by this week's AGA inventory report, which showed a draw in stocks of 124 billion cubic feet, which was termed bearish by traders. US storage is estimated at 73% full. This week's breakout into new contract lows has set the stage for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1.76 later this winter. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted a key reversal up on Wednesday and spiked above December's high before light profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains. Closes above today's high would confirm a breakout into new contract highs while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 120.11 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible if March can close above December's high crossing at 118.85. Support begins at last Friday's low crossing at 117.85. The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Wednesday and is once again poised to test the lower boundary of last fall's trading range support crossing at .5973. Multiple closes below this support level or above neckline resistance crossing near .6067 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of January. The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal up. Today's close above broken support crossing at .6230 tempers the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, I would not be surprised to see a setback on Thursday as March might try to consolidate some of this week's gains. Momentum indicators are diverging and turning bullish with this week's rebound hinting that a low is in or near. The March Japanese Yen posted a new contract low on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's breakout below key weekly support crossing at .7558. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely. If the decline continues, weekly support crossing at .7371 is March's next likely target. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below December's uptrend line thereby confirming a top and trend change has taken place. Session lows tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 278.70. While a pause is possible near-term level, the door remains open for additional weakness with fib support crossing at 276 being February's next target. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extended its breakout below the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.327. The door remains open for a test of the next level of fib support crossing at 4.221 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March copper closed higher due to technical short covering for the second day in a row on Wednesday. However, closes above last week's high crossing at 71.40 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above 72.40 are needed to renew March's rally off this month's low. Momentum indicators are neutral as they wait for a breakout of January's trading range. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday due to renewed fund selling amidst rising prospects for showers in South America's key corn growing regions later this week. Additional pressure came from reports of recent wheat sales by Argentina, which will provide increased competition for U.S. corn in the world market. Bearish traders continue to point to sluggish U.S. corn exports, which are running some 9% below year ago levels and are willing to overlook tighter ending stocks for this year. March spiked to new contract lows during the session but failed to uncover fresh sell stops below the previous contract low, which then triggered a short covering rebound. Light support came from a higher close in wheat and expectations for a strong export sales report on Friday. Closes below today's low would confirm a breakout below this winter's trading range thereby opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. March wheat posted a key reversal up on Wednesday amidst technical short covering. Today's rally managed to fill Tuesday's gap at 2.97 1/2, which is slightly positive from a technical standpoint. However, March remains vulnerable to test December's uptrend line crossing near 2.93 possibly on Thursday. Closes below this support level would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of January. Renewed selling by Argentina after being out of the market since late-December limited today's gains and will act as a weight on the market near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into the end of January. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans plunged below gap support crossing at 4.37 amidst increased chances for precip across the dryer regions of South America by the weekend. Additional pressure came from today's sharp sell off in soybean meal. While a short covering bounce is possible on Thursday, the stage is set for a likely test of the early-January gap beginning at 4.28 1/2 and extending down to 4.26 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. I would not rule out a test if not spike to new contract lows later this winter following the sharp decline off last week's high. March soybean meal closed sharply lower on Wednesday filling the gap crossing at 154.80 and is now poised to test the gap crossing at 150.30 possibly on Thursday. News that meal tightness in Europe is only temporary along with increased chances for precip across South America continues to pressure the market. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness into the end of January is likely. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed modestly higher on Wednesday due to technical short covering following a test of the 25% retracement level of the rally off last fall's low. The mid- range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday, as the market will continue to look to the cash and product markets for near-term direction. April continues to hold a stiff premium to the cash market, which will continue to limit upside potential near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low at 59.32 would confirm this week's trendline breakout while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-February. April cattle closed higher on Wednesday, as bulls are not going to give up control of the market without a fight. Today's short covering bounce was triggered by rising hopes for higher cash and boxed beef values later this week. However April closed below the 50% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 71.36. Momentum indicators are diverging and have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. However, closes below initial trendline support crossing near 70.87 are needed before a short-term top can be confirmed. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Early weakness was due to small speculator selling however, industry and trade buying tempered early losses as the market tried to catch its breath today following the sharp decline off last week's high. However, near ideal growing conditions in Brazil's coffee region continue to keep expectations for a record coffee crop high on trader's minds thereby limiting near-term upside potential. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into the end of January. This sets the stage for a possible test of this winter's low crossing at 44.75 later this month. March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday and filled the gap crossing at 1355 thereby tempering the bearish outlook in the market. Today's rebound confirmed Tuesday's key reversal up while turning a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bullish. This sets the stage for sideways to higher prices into the end of January. However, March will need to close above 1422 or below 1260 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and clear up near-term direction in the market. March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday and is poised to test last fall's uptrend line crossing near 721. Closes below this support level would open the door for a likely test of December's low crossing at 690 later this winter. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into the end of January. March cotton closed lower on Wednesday however, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses. The high-range close leaves the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Thursday. However, upside potential appears limited given the large net long position held by speculators. This leaves the market vulnerable to additional long-liquidation into the end of the month if export sales begin to taper off from recent levels. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish with the sell off from last Friday's high warning traders that a test of trading range support crossing near 34.91 is possible later this winter. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ NYSE OpenBook To Go Live Thursday http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27732 Montreal Exchange To Start Trading Sponsored Options http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27731 Nasdaq Expands Primex System To All Nasdaq 100 Stocks http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27730 Multi-Market Access For Singapore Futures Traders http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27729 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.088500 0.003725 +4.39 CCN3 Cocoa Jul 2003 1183 47 +4.03 CLZ7 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2007 20.42 0.71 +3.45 HUH2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Mar 20 0.5738 0.0160 +2.87 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1547.00 40.50 +2.69 HOQ2 Heating Oil Aug 2002 0.5480 0.0129 +2.38 ON2 Oats Jul 2002 161 3/4 3 3/4 +2.37 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 196 1/2 4 1/2 +2.33 SCH2 Brent Crude Oil Mar 2002 19.12 0.36 +1.92 QLG2 Central Appalachian Coal Feb 2002 28.50 0.50 +1.79 LOSERS PAH2 Palladium Mar 2002 383.50 -14.50 -3.64 SMN2 Soybean Meal Jul 2002 147.1 -4.1 -2.71 PBK2 Frozen Pork Bellies May 2002 77.100 -1.750 -2.23 PLJ2 Platinum Apr 2002 467.1 -9.2 -1.94 XEK2 Soybean Meal May 2002 151.2 -2.7 -1.79 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.31 -0.12 -1.62 YGM2 Mini NY Gold Jun 2002 280.3 -4.6 -1.61 SU2 Soybeans Sep 2002 443 1/2 -7 -1.55 NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.076 -0.031 -1.47 DBU2 Butter Sep 2002 143.250 -2.250 -1.37 FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ARTL ARISTOTLE CORP 8.5000 1.7600 +23.47 MERQ MERCURY INTERACTIVE 35.8600 6.5700 +22.43 SIMG SILICON IMAGE 6.4900 1.0900 +20.15 FMKT FREEMARKETS INC 22.1000 3.5800 +19.56 AMRN AMARIN CORP PLC ADS 21.0000 3.2500 +18.41 PCSA AIRGATE PCS INC 26.0200 4.0400 +18.38 ORB ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP 5.20 0.77 +17.70 XETA XETA TECH INC 5.5500 0.8500 +17.00 PCIS PRECIS INC 11.9500 1.7000 +16.75 NLCI NOBEL LEARNING COMMUNITIES 7.4500 1.0600 +16.72 LOSERS ENTU ENTRUST INC 6.9500 -3.2100 -31.75 VSL VIDESH SANCHAR NIGAM LTD ADS 5.83 -2.65 -31.18 TEST TEST SECURITY 1 10.0000 -3.6500 -26.74 EOT EOTT ENERGY PARTNERS L.P. 8.06 -2.13 -20.90 IDNX IDENTIX INC 10.0500 -1.9600 -16.37 ROSS ROSS SYSTEMS INC 7.5500 -1.4000 -16.28 MAXC MAXCO INC 6.0000 -1.0000 -14.29 TESTV TEST SECURITY 46.2100 -7.4500 -14.00 CCRD CONCORD COMMUNICATIONS 19.5300 -2.9410 -13.09 CTEC CHOLESTECH CORP 15.5000 -2.2100 -12.47 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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