Message-ID: <24513123.1075840984141.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 14:28:31 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Friday NAS -55.48 USD -0.21 DOW -77.36 S&P -11.30 CRB -1.84 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST F R I D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index is falling 1.84 points to 190.07. The US Dollar Index moved lower 0.21 points to 117.64. The Dow Industrials eased 77.36 points, at 9771.85, while the S&P 500 declined 11.30 points, last seen at 1127.58. The Nasdaq Composite eased 55.48 points to 1930.34. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html _____________________________________________________________________ NEW FOR 2002 - FROM GEORGE ANGELL - 'SNIPER TRADING' http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/W047139422-Sniper Sniper Trading - NEW _____________________________________________________________________ WHAT YOU MUST KNOW TO TRADE OPTIONS ON FUTURES http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWOV-Visually _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: Introducing the best guide to mastering the essentials of option trading we've ever seen. Paul Forchione, former option floor trader and trading advisor introduces TRADING OPTIONS VISUALLY. In this complete step-by-step guide, you will learn the safety first strategies that create millionaires. 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Closes below this support level and December's low would open the door for a larger-degree setback during the last half of January. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The NASDAQ closed down 55.48 points at 1930.34. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Friday but held above the 25% retracement level of the rally off September's low crossing at 1122.57. Closes below this support level and December's low at 1115 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during the last half of January. The March S&P 500 closed down 5.20 points at 1128.80. The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates above key fib support crossing at 9706.20. Light pressure came from profit taking ahead of the three- day weekend. Losses were limited following the release of better-than-expected consumer confidence data. Next week's gross domestic product numbers hold the keys to near-term direction in the market. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but nearing oversold levels hinting that a low might be near if next week's data is neutral to positive. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed sharply higher on Friday despite a sharp jump in the University of Michigan's mid-month report on consumer sentiment for January. The report came in at 94.2 compared with a pre-report estimate of 89.8 and last month's 88.8. The Michigan report comes amid a slew of reports that economists and policy makers say suggest that the worst may be over for the U.S. economy. This lowers the chances that the Fed will be willing to make additional cuts in interest rates when it meets later this month. Today's rebound erased most of Thursday's loss however March bonds remain below January's broken uptrend line. March will need to close above this week's high at 104-11 to renew its rally off December's low. If the rally resumes, the 50% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 104-25 is a potential target. Until then, this week's trendline breakout has opened the door for sideways to lower prices during the last half of January. Momentum indicators are overbought signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the latter part of January. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday due to weakness in grains, precious metals, food and fiber. Today's decline confirmed a breakout below last fall's uptrend line crossing near 191.15 and opens the door for sideways to lower prices into the latter part of January. If the decline continues, December's reaction low crossing at 187.73 is the CRB's next likely target. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed mixed on Friday. Early short covering gains faded ahead of the close and the extended weekend. The fundamental outlook remains bearish however, the prospects for tighter supplies following the recent production cutback by OPEC continues to prevent traders from aggressively betting on lower prices at this time. March crude oil closed higher on Friday but near session lows as early short covering gains faded ahead of the close. March remains poised to test December's reaction low crossing at 18.45 possibly next Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. I would not be surprised to see March crude test November's low at 17.55 before buying returns to the market. March heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close thereby confirming Thursday's key reversal down. March is consolidating above last fall's low at 51.30. However, mild winter weather across high demand regions of the country along with weak industrial demand continues to weigh on prices leaving March vulnerable to a downside breakout of this winter's trading range possibly next week. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 54.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. March unleaded gas posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it consolidates above last fall's uptrend line crossing near 54.75. Closes below this support level would open the door for a likely test of last fall's lows beginning at 53.00 and extending down to 51.90. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the last half of January. Closes above Monday's high at 58.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. March Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Friday thereby confirming Thursday's key reversal down. Losses were tempered due to thin pre-holiday trading volume and colder temps moving across the upper Midwest this week. If the decline continues, last week's low at 2.155 is March's next target. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted a downside reversal on Friday due to profit taking ahead of the weekend after rallying for the past three trading sessions. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a test of December's high crossing at 118.85 is possible later this month. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for additional weakness early next week with Tuesday's gap crossing at 117.75 being a possible target. The March Swiss Franc closed modestly higher on Friday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss. March continues to consolidate above last fall's trading range support crossing at .5973. Multiple closes below this support level or above neckline resistance crossing near .6067 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a slightly higher close due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp losses as it plunged to new contract lows. I would not be surprised to see another day or two of consolidation however, this week's breakout into new lows has opened the door for sideways to lower prices during the last half of January. The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday spiking below long-term support crossing at .7558 before a short covering rebound ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss. Closes below .7558 would renew the larger-degree downtrend while opening the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at .7210 later this winter. Momentum indicators are poised to turn bearish with additional weakness. Closes above last Monday's high at .7696 would confirm that a short-term bottom has likely been posted. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed lower on Friday and is poised to test December's uptrend line crossing near 281.40, which coincides with December's high. Closes below this uptrend line would all but confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish signaling that a double top was likely posted on Wednesday. I will take closes above 289.90 to renew February's rally off December's low. March silver closed sharply lower on Friday falling just short of testing the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.327. If the decline continues, fib support crossing at 4.221 is March's next targets. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March copper closed lower in lackluster trading on Friday as it tested this week's low at 69.70. Closes above 72.40 or below 69.50 are needed to breakout of its current trading range thereby clearing up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that time might be running out for bulls. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Friday after Sparks Commodities released their corn acreage estimate for this year at 78.6 million acres up 3.7% from last year. The increased corn acreage projection trumped early expectations for a short covering rebound ahead of the three-day weekend. However, some analysts indicated that Spark's corn acreage estimate may be 600,000 to 1 million acres too high as actual acreage often falls below early planting estimates. Nevertheless, March corn fell below last year's uptrend line leaving this week's earlier breakout suspect for the time being. The market will need to see increased export demand in the near future to limit the sell off from Thursday's high. Near-term downside risk appears limited to a test of minor support crossing at 2.10 1/4. March wheat closed lower on Friday thereby confirming Thursday's trendline breakout and key reversal down. The door is open for additional weakness and a likely test of December's uptrend line crossing near 2.91 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible now that this winter's technical rally has ended. Weak export demand will continue to pressure the market during the last half of January. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed lower for the second day in a row on Friday, which led to a test of January's steep uptrend line crossing near session lows. Profit taking ahead of the weekend was triggered by uncertainty over South American weather, questions over Chinese demand ahead of March 20th and spillover weakness from meal. Momentum indicators have become overbought warning traders that a round of long- liquidation to consolidate some of this month's gains might unfold into the latter part of January. March's inability to test November's high at 4.57 1/2 was noted by bears as they tied this fact with the idea that underlying support for the market has weakened this week. I am looking for a breakout below January's uptrend line early next week and a likely setback to the 4.30 area in the near future. March soybean meal closed sharply lower due to profit taking ahead of the weekend on Friday following Thursday's test of the 62% retracement level of the July/January decline, which crosses at 163. Today's sell off turned a number of momentum indicators, which have become overbought neutral to bearish warning traders of a possible sell off into the end of January. Initial support begins at 154.80. If this support level is exceeded, the gap at 147.90 is a possible target later this month. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed higher on Friday amidst spread and fund related buying. Additional support came from higher cash bids and dramatic improvement in pork product values. Expectations for higher cash bids early next week should support steady to firmer futures prices as April closed above key weekly resistance crossing at 61.13. If the rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 63.60 is April's next target. This afternoon's cold storage for bellies came in at 44.187 million pounds. Closes below the December- January uptrend line and Monday's low crossing at 60.15 are needed to confirm a top has likely been posted. April cattle closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of this afternoon's monthly cattle-on-feed report. The report showed On Feed as of January 1 9.910 million head 98% of year ago levels. Placements for December came in at 1.330 million head 92% of year ago levels and Marketings for December came in at 1.545 million head 103% of year ago levels. Traders called the report positive. The marketing number is slightly better than expectations. The large trade volume last wee suggests that the market is making good progress toward cleaning up front-end supplies. The report should be positive for the nearby contracts when trading resumes on Tuesday. Technically, April cattle closed just below the 62% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 74.34. Closes above this week's high at 74.87 are needed to renew April's rally off November's low and set the stage for a test of October's high at 75.45 later this winter. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed sharply lower on Friday due to aggressive fund selling ahead of the three-day weekend. Unless the near ideal weather pattern in Brazil shifts and or there is a major surprise over the size of Vietnam's crop, coffee prices are likely to remain under pressure during the last half of January. Momentum indicators have already turned bearish with this week's sell off and point to additional weakness over the next week or two. March cocoa gapped down and closed lower thereby signaling an end to this week's short covering bounce. Closes below 1260 are needed to confirm this week's trendline breakout, which would also open the door for a large-degree decline into the end of January. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. March sugar closed lower on Friday but fell short of testing of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 720. I would not be surprised to see this support level tested in early trading on Tuesday. However, I would not rule out a short covering rebound off this key support level as March consolidates some of this week's losses. Closes below last fall's uptrend line would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of January. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March cotton posted a key reversal down on Friday due to profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend. Additional weakness on Tuesday would confirm today's key reversal down and that today's high marked a double top with last week's high. I am looking for sideways to lower prices into the end of January as burdensome supplies along with uncertainty over a recovery in the world economy leave upside potential limited for the time being. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CFTC And China's Regulatory Agency Sign MOU http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27720 SEC Approves New Nasdaq Data Product For Professionals http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27719 NFA Announces Board Of Directors Election Results http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27718 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGF4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2004 3.358 0.188 +5.64 ARH2 Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Mar 1.2149 0.0595 +4.88 PNG2 Propane Feb 2002 0.2875 0.0100 +3.60 HOQ2 Heating Oil Aug 2002 0.5366 0.0100 +1.85 RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.086125 0.001375 +1.59 HUQ2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Aug 20 0.6169 0.0088 +1.42 PBH2 Frozen Pork Bellies Mar 2002 76.400 1.000 +1.32 DAG2 BFP Milk Feb 2002 12.10 0.15 +1.24 RRH2 Rough Rice Mar 2002 3.830 0.045 +1.19 CZ4 Corn Dec 2004 256 1/2 3 +1.17 LOSERS AGH2 Silver 1,000 oz. Mar 2002 4.150 -0.295 -6.64 KCH2 Coffee 'C' Mar 2002 47.40 -1.60 -3.28 CCH2 Cocoa Mar 2002 1286 -37 -2.80 YIH2 Mini NY Silver Mar 2002 4.351 -0.119 -2.66 XEH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 157.7 -4.3 -2.66 SMH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 157.7 -4.1 -2.53 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1554.50 -40.00 -2.51 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.30 -0.18 -2.41 LBX2 Random Length Lumber Nov 2002 266.00 -6.50 -2.39 SIK2 Silver May 2002 4.350 -0.105 -2.36 FREE: FUTURES INTRODUCTORY COURSE BOOKLET Learn To Analyze The Markets Like A Professional http://www.ino.com/specials/ira/academy.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS FWC-A FOST WHEELER PFD CAP TR I 9% 6.75 1.53 +28.76 ELON ECHELON CORP 16.7300 3.6000 +27.27 TSA SPORTS AUTHORITY 6.72 1.22 +22.18 MWRK MOTHERS WORK 12.0300 1.7900 +17.53 MROI MRO SOFTWARE INC 29.2000 4.2400 +16.87 APL ATLAS PIPELINE PTNRS LP 28.04 3.85 +16.11 VVUS VIVUS INC 8.0800 1.0600 +15.14 PRN PUERTO RICAN CEMENT 24.15 2.95 +14.71 MKT ADVANCED MARKETING SVCS INC 23.25 2.90 +14.15 DTAGY DIGITALE TELEKABEL ADS 9.2800 1.0300 +13.79 LOSERS IMCL IMCLONE SYSTEMS 21.1500 -8.9300 -29.69 MCTR MERCATOR SOFTWARE INC 6.5000 -1.4800 -18.52 CCI CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP 6.98 -1.15 -14.56 ELN ELAN CORP ADS 38.65 -6.23 -13.91 LABL MULTI-COLOR CORP 14.0000 -2.0000 -13.33 NEOL NEOPHARM INC 17.0500 -2.4600 -12.83 BREL BIORELIANCE CORP 19.1500 -2.6475 -12.37 RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMER 27.95 -3.91 -12.25 ARDM ARADIGM CORP 5.2500 -0.7000 -12.22 APPX AMER PHARMACEUTICAL PTNRS 14.8300 -1.9600 -11.74 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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