Message-ID: <25318794.1075845216077.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 31 May 2001 14:22:51 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@ect.enron.com Subject: Andrew, Thursday CRB -0.77 S&P +7.74 USD +0.82 DOW +39.30 NAS +25.99 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Lewis, Andrew H.\Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: Lewis, Andrew H..pst T H U R S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is declining 0.77 points to 209.00. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.82 points to 119.07. The Dow Industrials moved up 39.30 points, at 10911.94, while the S&P 500 gained 7.74 points, last seen at 1255.82. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 25.99 points to 2110.49. FREE Complete Copy: "Charting Made Easy" by John Murphy. 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However, both the Nasdaq and the September S&P 500 index failed to fill Wednesday's gaps thereby leaving the doors open for additional weakness into the first half of June. Momentum indicators remain bearish warning traders and investors that the sell off's from May's highs are likely to continue. The Dow closed higher as it posted an inside day due to short covering. However, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term are likely. If the decline off this month's high continues, May's reaction low crossing at 10,774.10 is the Dow's next target. INTEREST RATES June bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday and above broken support crossing at 99-31 thereby tempering the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Much of today's support was due to position squaring ahead of Friday's unemployment report. Closes above this spring's downtrend line crossing near 100-26 or below weekly fib support crossing at 98-07 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Today's rally turned the daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) down signaling that the near-term trend has turned sideways. The CRB INDEX closed lower for the eighth day in a row and spiked below April's low crossing at 208.87. Multiple closes below this support level would confirm a breakout and resumption of this year's downtrend. While lower prices are possible, I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Friday as the CRB index has become oversold. Much of today's pressure was due to weakness in precious metals, foods and crude oil. ENERGY MARKETS were mixed on Thursday despite concerns over Iraq's threats to curtail oil exports. Early session losses were tempered after a temporary extension to the oil-for- food program for Iraq was extended for up to six month's. July crude oil closed lower on Thursday but near session highs due to a late-session short covering bounce. Session lows fell short of testing the 50% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 27.51. While momentum indicators are still bearish, today's high-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. July heating oil closed below this spring's uptrend line crossing near 77.45. Early session weakness spiked below the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for sideways to higher trading on Friday. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices into early-June are possible. July unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. Early weakness led to a spike below May's reaction low crossing at 91.20. However, a short covering rally ahead of the close erased much of today's losses and leaves July in position to post a short covering bounce on Friday. July Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Thursday after early strength tied to spillover short covering from Wednesday faded during the session. July is consolidating above last October's low crossing at 3.86. Closes below this key support level would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 1999-01 rally crossing at 3.64 later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bearish mode signaling that additional weakness is possible. CURRENCIES The September Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Thursday thereby confirming the recent trading range breakout. Today's rally opened the door for a test of weekly resistance that crosses at 121.58, which marks the 50% retracement level of the 1985/1992 decline later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has entered a bullish trend mode signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. The September Swiss Franc gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby confirming the recent breakout below key support crossing at .5643. The door is open for additional weakness and a possible test of weekly support crossing at .5508 later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) has entered a bearish trend mode signaling that additional weakness is possible. The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday negating Wednesday's key reversal down. Until September closes below April's uptrend line crossing near .6440, the overall trend remains sideways to up. Stochastics and RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term are still possible. Closes above .6541 are needed to renew this spring's rally. The September Japanese Yen gapped up and closed into new highs for the month thereby confirming a breakout above this spring's trading range crossing at .8425. Today's high tested the 25% retracement level of the 2000-01 decline crossing at .8524. Closes above this resistance level are needed to extend this spring's corrective rally. PRECIOUS METALS August gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. Today's loss led to a close below April's uptrend line. Multiple closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of this spring's low crossing at 257.30 later this year. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness into the first half of June appears likely. July silver closed lower on Thursday as it continues to extend its decline off last week's high. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices into early-June are possible. July has been lower for the past three trading sessions, which could set up a short covering bounce on Friday. Longer-term, a test of May's low at 4.315 is possible. July copper extended this week's decline on Thursday but fell short of testing May's low at 74.75. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open a short covering bounce on Friday. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness into early-June appears likely. GRAINS July corn closed higher on Thursday due to end of the month profit taking on net short positions by funds. Spillover support from sharply higher soybean prices also underpinned the corn market. Additional support came from growing concerns that the below normal temps across the Midwest are slowing crop development. If those concerns continue to grow over the next week or two it could lead to a modest short covering bounce. However, traders are expecting to see the USDA lower their export projection in the June supply/demand report, which will only added to the bearish carryout level. Traders will be watching Friday's export sales report for signs of improving export demand. July wheat posted an inside day with a higher close due to increased concerns over disease in the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop and some end of month short covering. Today's close above broken support crossing at 2.65 tempers the near-term bearish outlook in the market as momentum indicators have also turned neutral to bullish. I would not be surprised to see a steady to higher close on Friday if tomorrow's export sales report comes in at or just above expectations. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed sharply higher on Thursday as wet weather across the heart of the U.S. soybean belt has raised concerns over emergence and early crop development. Fund short covering was triggered once July moved above the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Today's close above April's broken uptrend line tempered the bearish short-term outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above 4.53 1/2 to renew this spring's rally. Demand remains strong, which continues to underpin the market. July soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday and above this spring's uptrend line thereby tempering the bearish outlook in the market. However, closes above last week's high at 168 are needed to renew this spring's rally. Friday's export sales report may help provide additional strength to the meal market. LIVESTOCK August hogs closed higher for the third day in a row on Thursday and above the 62% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 63.40. While a setback is possible on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend, this week's rally has opened the door for a possible test of April's gap crossing at 64.90 later this year. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. August cattle gapped up and closed above the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 73.83 on Thursday. Today's rally renewed May's advance and set the stage for a test of January's high crossing at 75.00 later this spring. Expectations for steady to $1.00 higher cash trades this week triggered today's rally. Momentum indicators are bullish but have become overbought warning traders to use caution as a top may be near. FOOD & FIBER July coffee plunged below April's low crossing at 58.80 on Thursday thereby renewing this year's downtrend. Today's move to new lows opened the door for a test of long- term support crossing at 51.70 later this year. Moderating temps across Brazil's coffee growing region along with abundant supplies by North American roasters and huge exchange stocks continue to weigh on coffee prices. July cocoa closed lower on Thursday and below trading range support crossing at 955. Session lows fell just short of testing the 62% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 929. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Friday that could lead to a test of broken support at 955. However, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness into early-June is possible. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level at 862 is July's next target. July sugar posted an inside day with a lower close as it tried to consolidate some of this week's losses. However, the door to lower prices remains open following Tuesday's trendline breakout. While another day or two of consolidation is possible, the door is open for additional weakness into early-June with 832 then 808 being possible targets. July cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday as it continues to consolidate above psychological support crossing at 40-cents. Talk of lost cotton production in west Texas provided minor support. However, beneficial rain farther south in west Texas tempered gains. The Delta and Southeast are expected to see more rain next week with most of the U.S. cotton crop in good shape. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei down 1.7%, techs remain under pressure http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25610 Add2: US Equities Review: Techs pace modest market rebound http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25618 UK Stocks Review: Resurgent techs push FTSE back up to flat line http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25616 FOREX US FX Review: Euro tanks on receding ECB intervention fears http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25612 Asia FX Review: Yen well bid across the board in Asia Thursday http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25617 Europe FX Review: Euro plunges to its lowest level this year http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25611 CREDIT US Credit Review: Climbs on weak labor, manufacturing data http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25608 Europe Credit Review: Bonds hit by euro losses, Gilts outperform http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25613 Japan Credit Review: Yen bonds higher amid weak Nikkei stock http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25615 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Coffee, cocoa crash; soybeans, cattle climb http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25614 EXCHANGES New WCE Canola Meal Futures Contract Launch Date Set http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24501 WCE Delists Oats Futures Contract http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24500 NYSE Announces Disciplinary Actions Against 13 Individuals http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24499 HKFE Revises Margins For Stock And Stock Index Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24498 HKEx, Shanghai And Shenzhen Agree To Exchange Securities Market Data http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24497 DJ Average To Begin 'Indicative' Calculation At 3am Eastern http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24496 CME To Add May Contract For Lean Hogs http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24495 Amex Lists 100th ETF With Vanguard VIPERs Offering http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24494 Mini FTSE 100 Contract Cleared For US http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24493 Kansas Wheat Options Set New Open Interest Mark http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24492 CFTC Security Futures Products Procedural Proposals http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24491 Revisions To Winnipeg's Field Pea Contract Approved http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24490 LIFFE Announces Fee Holiday For Swapnote Contracts http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24489 Deutsche Borse And Eurex Plan Joint Market For US Products http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24488 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 3 17/32 +3.52 SMZ1 Soybean Meal Dec 2001 150.9 5.1 +3.50 XSX1 Soybeans Nov 2001 432 1/4 13 3/4 +3.27 SN1 Soybeans Jul 2001 451 13 1/2 +3.09 XEN1 Soybean Meal Jul 2001 165.7 3.3 +2.06 ON1 Oats Jul 2001 114 1/2 2 1/4 +2.00 HUM1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jun 20 1.0632 0.0188 +1.81 XRN1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 15.01 0.24 +1.62 RRU1 Rough Rice Sep 2001 5.420 0.080 +1.50 CN1 Corn Jul 2001 192 3/4 2 3/4 +1.45 LOSERS KCU1 Coffee 'C' Sep 2001 60.20 -2.10 -3.38 NGH3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2003 3.907 -0.130 -3.24 BDN1 Oriented Strand Board Jul 2001 212.00 -6.50 -2.95 CCN1 Cocoa Jul 2001 936 -25 -2.59 EJM1 Euro/Japanese Yen Jun 2001 100.55 -2.39 -2.32 KIZ1 Kilo Gold Dec 2001 271 -6 -2.17 ZXM1 New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar Jun 2001 0.4088 -0.0084 -2.02 HUV1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Oct 20 0.8078 -0.0151 -1.87 PLN1 Platinum Jul 2001 603.1 -10.1 -1.65 SIN2 Silver Jul 2002 4.561 -0.068 -1.48 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS CVSN CHROMAVISION MEDICAL SYSTEM 5.30 1.29 +31.77 NCPM NCO PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT INC 6.50 1.24 +23.62 WWIN WASTE HOLDINGS 7.95 1.35 +21.95 IDN INTELLI-CHECK INC 8.55 1.45 +20.71 AMWD AMER WOODMARK 34.84 5.62 +19.34 AUGT AUGUST TECHNOLOGY 14.35 2.25 +18.37 PRX PHARMACEUTICAL RESOURCES 24.96 3.86 +18.29 IDT* IDT CORP W/I 14.70 2.25 +17.65 CXW CORRECTIONS CORP OF AMERICA 12.95 1.90 +17.19 TPTH TRIPATH IMAGING INC 8.77 1.29 +17.18 LOSERS HABKE HAMILTON BANCORP 6.98 -1.75 -19.77 CEC CEC ENTERTAINMENT 43.30 -10.60 -19.67 XXIA IXIA 13.50 -2.35 -15.79 IDT.B* IDT CORP CL B W/I 11.65 -1.95 -14.34 ARTL ARISTOTLE CORP 8.75 -1.19 -13.30 RARE RARE HOSPITALITY INTL 23.27 -3.55 -13.12 TZA TV AZTECA,S.A. ADS 7.50 -1.08 -12.74 BUCA BUCA INC 21.80 -3.19 -12.68 CHBS CHRISTOPHER & BANKS CORP 38.56 -5.39 -12.26 PROX PROXIM INC 14.30 -1.94 -11.95 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@ect.enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.