Message-ID: <12655501.1075845224467.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2001 14:11:51 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@ect.enron.com Subject: Andrew, Wednesday USD +0.56 CRB -0.45 DOW -105.60 S&P -13.54 NAS -15.93 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Lewis, Andrew H.\Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: Lewis, Andrew H..pst W E D N E S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index is trending lower 0.45 points to 209.76. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.56 points to 119.26. The Dow Industrials moved down 105.60 points, at 11070.24, while the S&P 500 edged lower 13.54 points, last seen at 1270.03. 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Momentum indicators have turned neutral to slightly bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. However, it will take closes above May's highs to renew this spring's rallies. The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday due to light profit taking, which was triggered by comments from Hewlett-Packard that it sees continued deterioration in the global economy and that it is cautious on its third- quarter revenue projections. Closes above 11,350 or below 10,835.40 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the Dow. Until then, look for two-sided trading to continue. INTEREST RATES September bonds posted an inside day with a higher for the sixth day in a row. Weakness in the equity markets underpinned September bonds, which remain in a short-term uptrend following last week's breakout above this spring's downtrend line. The door remains open for additional gains with the 38% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 101-15 being September's next target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. The CRB INDEX closed lower for the third day in a row but remains above trading range support crossing at 208.43. Weakness in energies, some foods, precious metals and cattle weighed on the CRB index. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open for sideways to higher prices near-term. Closes below 208.43 would confirm a trading range breakout thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline during June. Closes above broken support crossing at 213.20 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. ENERGY MARKETS closed lower on Wednesday following the release of this week's API and DOE inventory reports. Both reports showed increases in crude, heating oil, and gasoline stocks during the past week. News that OPEC will keep crude oil production at current levels and will make up any short fall due to Iraq's decision to halt crude oil exports weighed on energy prices. The latest AGA inventory data report for natural gas showed that supplies increased 117 billion cubic feet during the past week. July crude oil posted a key reversal down on Wednesday but closed above the 50% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 27.51. Wednesday's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday as a number of momentum indicators have become oversold hinting that a low might be in or near. Closes below today's low could lead to an eventual test of April's low crossing at 25.90 later this month. July heating oil closed lower on Wednesday and posted a key reversal down. However, a short covering bounce ahead of the close erased much of today's losses leaving the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. July tested last week's low, which coincides with the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66. Multiple closes below these support levels would open the door for additional weakness during June. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. July unleaded gas plunged to new lows for the month following this week's bearish inventory data reports and closed below this year's uptrend line and the 50% retracement level crossing at 88.93. If the decline continues the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 85.62 is July's next target. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. July Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Wednesday following today's bearish AGA inventory report thereby confirming Tuesday's key reversal down. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Thursday. Longer-term, the stage is set for sideways to lower prices into the end of June as seasonal weakness is likely to continue as stocks build. CURRENCIES The September Dollar posted a key reversal up on Wednesday leaving the door open for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 121.50 later this month. Additional strength on Thursday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible. The September Swiss Franc posted a key reversal down on Wednesday, erasing all of this week's gains. Additional weakness on Thursday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. Closes below last week's low at .5564 would renew this spring's decline and set the stage for a test of weekly support crossing at .5508 later this month. The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it broke out above trading range resistance crossing at .6541. Light profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. Multiple closes above .6541 are needed to confirm today's breakout and resumption of this spring's rally. If the rally continues, the 62% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at .6573 is Sept.'s next target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices during the first half of June are possible. The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Thursday however, momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. PRECIOUS METALS August gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it continues to consolidate around the 75% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 267.20. Closes above 269.60 or below 265.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. If the decline resumes, the reaction low crossing at 263.20 is August's next target. July silver closed slightly lower in narrow trading, as the door remains open for a test of trading range support crossing at 4.31 cents. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that a trading range breakout is possible in the near future. Closes below 4.31 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 4.15 later this month. July copper posted a downside reversal on Wednesday hinting that this week's short covering bounce may have come to an end. However, it will take closes below Monday's low crossing at 74.55 to renew the decline off May's high thereby opening the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 74.10 later this month. GRAINS July corn posted an upside reversal on Wednesday due to expectations that next week's crop conditions report will show further deterioration in the corn crop due to cool/wet conditions. Extended weather forecast are calling for warmer weather by the weekend or early next week however, additional rain is also in the forecast, which will continue to delay the last of the soybeans to be planted. Additional gains on Thursday are needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. Closes above minor resistance at $2.00 is needed to open the door for a possible test of May's high at 2.11 1/2 later this month. July wheat closed higher on Wednesday due to technical short covering. Early weakness was tied to so called harvest pressure as combines have moved into southern Oklahoma. Early weakness tested the contract low at 2.58 1/2 before short covering materialized. Additional support came from spillover strength in soybeans and meal. While another day or two of short covering is possible, the door remains open for additional weakness during June. Closes below today's low would renew this spring's decline and open the door for a test of long-term support crossing at 2.50 later this month. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday due to mixed extended weather forecast. Those forecast are calling for warmer temps across the Midwest by the weekend however, there is also plenty of rain in the forecast, which will keep Midwest bean fields soggy and limit completion of spring planting. Additional support stemmed from talk of new Chinese soybean buying for August delivery. Today's new high close for the month confirmed the recent trading range breakout thereby opening the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 later this month. July soybean meal posted a key reversal up and closed above May's at 168 to renew this spring's rally and tested the 62% retracement level crossing at 169.40. Momentum indicators have turned bullish with today's gains signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If the rally continues, fib resistance crossing at 175.40 is July's next target. Basis levels remain strong due to strong foreign and domestic demand and slow producer selling of soybeans. LIVESTOCK August hogs closed unchanged as a short covering bounce ahead of the close erased early losses. If the rally resumes, April's high crossing at 65.95 is August's next target. Closes below last week's gap at 64.00 would strongly suggest that a short-term top has been posted. Momentum indicators remain bullish but are entering their respective overbought zones warning bulls to use caution as a short- term top might be near. August cattle closed lower on Wednesday and in doing so turned a number of momentum indicators bearish from overbought levels signaling that a broad double top with January's high might be in place. Today's sell off was triggered by a growing sentiment that a seasonal break is underway. Talk of sagging boxed beef and cash markets also weighed on prices. Some traders suggested that packers would either have to cut kills or hold off buying large numbers of cattle in the cash market to make up for recent profit margin reductions. FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed lower on Wednesday due in large part to a lack of short covering buying and forecasts calling for mild weather in Brazil's coffee growing region this weekend. Momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a short-term low is in place or near. Closes above 60.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. July cocoa posted a quiet inside day with a lower close as it consolidated some of this week's short covering gains. July remains below broken trading range support crossing at 955 leaving the door open for sideways to lower trading if Monday's low is exceeded. However, momentum indicators are becoming oversold warning bears to use caution when pressing the short side of the market. July sugar posted a key reversal down on Wednesday hinting that the short covering bounce off last week's double bottom might have come to an end. Additional weakness on Thursday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that a resumption of May's decline is possible. If the decline resumes, fib support crossing at 832 then 808 are targets. July cotton closed higher on Wednesday keeping the short covering bounce off last week's low alive for the time being. However, July needs to close above this year's downtrend line crossing near 43.95 to confirm that a bottom and trend change has taken place. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei -0.05% despite earlier gains http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25653 Add2: US Equities Review: Lower after H-P, JP Morgan warn http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25651 UK Stocks Review: FTSE-100 falls as Vodafone, oils offset banks http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25659 FOREX US FX Review: Sterling hits 15 1/2-year low on EMU fears http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25655 Asia FX Review: JPY offered against USD and EUR by US names http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25652 Europe FX Review: Sterling hits 7-month low on EMU entry talk http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25654 CREDIT US Credit Review: Little changed; some relief on Meyer remarks http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25650 Europe Credit Review: Mkt falls despite signs of econ weakness http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25656 Japan Credit Review: June falls on profit-taking, weak longer cash http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25658 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Energy, coffee backtrack; soybeans climb http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25657 EXCHANGES PCX To Trade AFC Enterprises, Corrects Symbol for Canius http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24525 David Lester Appointed C.I.O. Of London Stock Exchange http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24524 CFTC Charges Los Angeles Commodity Firm With Fraud http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24523 U.S. May Options Volume Up 26.3 Percent Over 2000 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24522 Eurex Extends Trading Hours For Swiss Derivatives http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24521 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS CTN1 Cotton Jul 2001 42.03 1.12 +2.73 SMN1 Soybean Meal Jul 2001 169.2 3.6 +2.17 XEN1 Soybean Meal Jul 2001 169.2 3.6 +2.17 DBV1 Butter Oct 2001 190.000 4.000 +2.15 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 1/32 +2.00 SN1 Soybeans Jul 2001 461 1/2 8 1/4 +1.82 XCN1 Corn Jul 2001 198 1/2 3 1/2 +1.79 MXM1 IPC Stock Index Jun 2001 6811.00 119.00 +1.78 XSN1 Soybeans Jul 2001 461 1/2 8 +1.77 CX1 Corn Nov 2001 214 3 1/4 +1.54 LOSERS PNN1 Propane Jul 2001 0.4800 -0.0205 -4.12 LBX1 Random Length Lumber Nov 2001 292.80 -10.00 -3.30 HUN1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jul 20 0.8804 -0.0279 -3.08 NGK2 Henry Hub Natural Gas May 2002 3.710 -0.097 -2.57 KCN1 Coffee 'C' Jul 2001 58.40 -1.20 -2.01 CLN1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2001 27.72 -0.53 -1.88 XPM1 British Pound Jun 2001 1.3906 -0.0210 -1.49 NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1949.00 -29.00 -1.48 PAU1 Palladium Sep 2001 625.00 -9.20 -1.45 BPU1 British Pound Sep 2001 1.3862 -0.0202 -1.44 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ULAB UNILAB CORPORATION 23.00 6.92 +43.25 PCLN PRICELINE.COM INC 7.06 1.63 +29.91 IPIC INTERNEURON PHARMACEUTICALS 8.85 1.96 +28.41 EMEX EMEX CORP 9.58 2.00 +26.32 IMMR IMMERSION CORP 6.05 1.08 +22.09 HLYW HOLLYWOOD ENTERTAINMENT 7.40 1.31 +21.83 CWON CHOICE ONE COMMUNIC 6.68 1.19 +21.25 DLIA DELIA'S CORPORATION CL A 5.57 0.97 +21.18 FMKT FREEMARKETS INC 14.55 2.38 +19.48 CTXS CITRIX SYSTEMS 27.96 4.22 +17.80 LOSERS CHCOP CITY HOLDING CAPITAL TR II 19.00 -5.39 -23.81 GGNS GENUS INC 5.76 -1.07 -15.67 CLKB CLARK/BARDES INC 20.49 -3.73 -15.46 URBN URBAN OUTFITTERS 12.58 -2.09 -13.99 ATSN ARTESYN TECHNOLOGIES 13.31 -2.14 -13.93 RML RUSSELL CORP 15.86 -2.50 -13.59 TUES TUESDAY MORNING CORP 11.69 -1.73 -12.86 CGA CORUS GROUP PLC 8.93 -1.16 -11.50 RARE RARE HOSPITALITY INTL 20.95 -2.67 -11.29 ACI ARCH COAL 27.00 -3.31 -10.96 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@ect.enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.