Message-ID: <8961230.1075857106647.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 12 Dec 2000 11:12:00 -0800 (PST) From: owner-ctshottoday@ctsinternet.com To: ctshottoday@ctsinternet.com Subject: HotToday December the 13th, 2000 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: owner-ctshottoday@ctsinternet.com X-To: "Hot Today Subscribers" X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Andrew_Lewis_Dec2000\Notes Folders\Discussion threads X-Origin: Lewis-A X-FileName: alewis.nsf Please visit http://tradeworld2000.com The Internet's Premier site for Recommendations, Education, and powerful charts & tools! For subscr or unsubscr instructions, please see the bottom of this message. HotToday - http://TradeWorld2000.com ______December the 13th, 2000__________ ------------------------------------------------------- CTS HOT TODAY...By Nick Van Nice ------------------------------------------------------- _________Volume 2, Number 209 __________ Good morning everyone, the purpose of CTS Hot Today is to help you prepare for the trading day ahead. -------------------------------------------------------- Nick's Trading Tip of the Day (12/13) -------------------------------------------------------- "Harness the Power of Confluence" The Websters definition of confluence is; To come together or flow together like two streams converging into a river. For technical trading, confluence is a very powerful concept. For example, a stochastics crossover from oversold levels has no statistical significance on its own merit. However, as soon as you say the trend is up, then entering on the crossover produces positive results is some markets. Furthermore, let's say the oversold stochastics has formed while prices are testing major chart support or perhaps the breakout point of a weekly price pattern or congestion areas. That's a higher standard of confluence. For a current example of confluence, let's examine the Canadian dollar; 1. Trend is down as quantified by the CTS trend arrows. (Long and Int.) 2. Correction has unfolded in a text book zig-zag correction that has retested the neckline of a massive head and shoulder top as seen on the weekly chart at 66.00. 3. The zig-zag correction shows A and C are equal and both break down into 5 legs. 4. Daily stochastics show a trend confirmation sell signal with a clear failure point above the neckline. 5. Today's gap lower open has caused daily stochastics to cross and confirms the entire scenario. Bringing together two or more technical indicators or observations that point in the same direction is called confluence. My experience has shown me that the more technical evidence I can stack in my corner, the higher the probability of the desired outcome. Now please, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. I don't believe accurate technical analysis on it own produces a high probability of winning trades. A high probability of winning comes from your exit strategy. If you keep your expected profit/loss ratio small, then you will win on greater than 50% of your trades. However, if you look for the big ratio (3 to 1 or higher, then you're doing well to win on anything greater than 35% of your trades. One of the greatest exercises my Father passed down to me, was using all charting time frames to establish confluence before taking a trade. You start with the monthly chart, go to the weekly chart, then to the daily and finally the hourly. Write down on each chart what the indicators are saying and what price patterns have formed. If you find a market that has bullish evidence on every time frame, then you have a great candidate for a long entry. I like taking the CTS Market Selector list of strong trending markets, and doing a complete monthly chart to 60-minute chart review searching for confluence. The great trades almost always have substantial evidence from multiple time frames before unfolding. Another case and point is Feeders; The monthly and weekly charts clearly identified a major up trend in motion and a bullish price pattern several weeks ago. We had confluence on the daily price patterns and stochastics trend confirmation signals. Hogs and bellies recently had the same type of confluence and that lead directly to my 495 point, $1700 winner in Hogs after commissions winner. The Yen is another market with major confluence. The downside breakout of the prior 15-month old trading range was recently followed by a pause. Since we just took out last weeks low, this pattern now projects major downside potential. A quick view of the monthly chart shows the prior multi-year rally could be an ABC correction. Can you see the concept of confluence at work here? Homework: Review the list of CTS Market Selector bull markets and find the ones that have confluence on all time frames (M.W.D.60). Feel free to e-mail me your observations and I'll respond if you'd like. N ------------------------------------------------------- Key Technical Developments (close of 12/12) ------------------------------------------------------- March cotton dropped to new 5-week lows following the USDA report. The price pattern looks like an island top with a see through gap. Only a rally above the gap over the next few trading sessions will turn the technical positive. March Japanese Yen closed down 61 points and dropped below last weeks low. A further decline below last weeks low at 90.88 opens the door for a major collapse of 700 to 1000 points. Hold shorts if you got 'em with stops above last weeks high. The March Canadian dollar has confirmed our bearish outlook talked about yesterday. Huge downside potential is seen to the 62.00 level over the next few months. Tomorrow could be a large down day! December and February hogs are showing early signs of a short term climax. Consider taking profits and heading to the sidelines. ************CTS Universe Trader Banks $1700 profit************** After a flat performance period for the last few weeks, the CTS Universe Trader banked a 495 point profit in December Lean hogs. I really like what I'm seeing now in several markets and believe a very profitable period for swing trading lies dead ahead. Historically, the first quarter has always been outstanding. CTS swing trading pinpoints short term high probability trades in the strongest trending markets. We essentually look for corrections in the strongest trending markets which satisfy our set-up conditions. Our goal is to make $1,000 per month per contract, while keeping our exposure per trade under 5% of equity based on a 20,000 account. Another goal is to keep our largest drawdown under 20%. All the trades for the CTS Universe Trader are traded in a real-time account so that we report the exact same results our subscribers get. The account pays a $20.00 round turn commission rate and is handled by a broker taking the trades off the website the same time subscibers get the information. To join one of our exclusive CTS Swing Trader services go the home page at Tradeworld2000.com to place your order, or simply call us tomorrow morning at 1-800-331-1069 and tell 'em Nick sent ya. ********************************************************************** ------------------------------------------------------- Opportunity Alerts (Links to premium content) ------------------------------------------------------- The following are shortcuts to key links for our TradeWorld2000.com premium subscribers. If you are not a subscriber, it costs only $29.95 to have access to all of this and much more for the next 30 days. That's right! Less than $1 per day... Nick's Hot List...Strong Trends undergoing short term corrections! See the CTS Market Selector. AOL Users Click Here Nick's daily column of short-term opportunities See the daily trend watch . AOL Users Click Here See MR-2 alert! . AOL Users Click Here CTS Stock Selector . AOL Users Click Here See CTS Hot Stock Alert . AOL Users Click Here If the above links do not work, then consider accepting my invitation to subscribe to TradeWorld 2000.com. It will give you a serious edge! ------------------------------------------------------ Traders'Key Report Calendar ------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday, December the 13th 8:30 am ET Nov. Retail Sales - .1% Thursday, December the 14th 8:30 am ET Oct Business Inventories - est .3% November PPI - est .2%. Worldwide crop production report Friday, December the 15th 8:30 am ET Nov. CPI - est .2% 9:15 am ET Nov Industrial Production - est .1% Capacity Utilization - 81.9% ______________________________________________________ I hope you found today's message helpful. Your partner in futures trading, Nick Van Nice P.S. E-mail me your comments to: nvannice@ctsinternet.com . ------------------------------------------------------- House Keeping Notes ------------------------------------------------------- CTS HotToday is a free service for subscribers of CTS Financial Publishing and TradeWorld2000. If you do not wish to receive CTS HotToday, it's easy to unsubscribe. Simply, follow the instructions at the bottom of this email. Please address your comments and suggestions for this column to me at nvannice@CTSInternet.com . Please be aware that links to CTS paid content will work only for paid subscribers of TradeWorld2000.com. For subscription information, please see our site: AOL Users Click Here Or call 1-800-331-1069. ___________________###_______________________ CTS HOT TODAY is a service of CTS Financial Publishing, 1201 U.S. Highway 1, Suite 350, North Palm Beach, FL 33408, , 2000. This e-zine is a free service for CTS customers and friends, by request. If you are receiving this message, you are already subscribed. Friends and colleagues may subscribe by signing up on the main page at TradeWorld2000.com To see what TradeWorld2000 has to offer, or to discover more about the many and varied CTS products, please visit: . AOL Users Click Here DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of future results. The ideas expressed in this document should be viewed in an educational light. Use the concepts and trade suggestions to help stimulate prudent decision-making ideas. As with all speculation, there is risk of loss. It is up to each individual to determine his or her own financial suitability. Any mention to profits relate to hypothetical profits and may not accurately reflect the slippage and commissions in the real market. Trading futures is highly risky and should only be done after seeking the services of a registered series 3 broker or Certified Financial Planner. Use this information at your own risk. 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