Message-ID: <24240518.1075844048961.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 01:01:00 -0700 (PDT) From: jeffery.fawcett@enron.com To: lorna.brennan@enron.com, lynn.blair@enron.com, rick.dietz@enron.com, steven.january@enron.com, sheila.nacey@enron.com, donna.scott@enron.com, julia.white@enron.com, mike.mcgowan@enron.com, michael.bodnar@enron.com, joni.bollinger@enron.com, david.badura@enron.com, janet.bowers@enron.com, craig.buehler@enron.com, bob.burleson@enron.com, allen.cohrs@enron.com, john.fiscus@enron.com, steve.gilbert@enron.com, morgan.gottsponer@enron.com, stephen.herber@enron.com, dana.jones@enron.com, stephanie.korbelik@enron.com, bill.mangels@enron.com, penny.mccarran@enron.com, vernon.mercaldo@enron.com, larry.pavlou@enron.com, eileen.peebles@enron.com, tony.perry@enron.com, loren.penkava@enron.com, ken.powers@enron.com, chris.sebesta@enron.com, frank.semin@enron.com, neal.shaw@enron.com, larry.swett@enron.com, kay.threet@enron.com, mike.ullom@enron.com, lisa.valley@enron.com, chuck.wilkinson@enron.com, jim.wiltfong@enron.com, jo.williams@enron.com, karen.lagerstrom@enron.com, bob.stevens@enron.com, sue.neville@enron.com, mike.barry@enron.com, martha.janousek@enron.com, kimberly.watson@enron.com, don.powell@enron.com, steve.weller@enron.com, michael.stage@enron.com, tim.johanson@enron.com, laura.lantefield@enron.com, frank.oldenhuis@enron.com, jeff.nielsen@enron.com, tracy.schwartzkopf@enron.com, robert.mason@enron.com, sean.bolks@enron.com, miriam.martinez@enron.com, lee.ferrell@enron.com, john.williams@enron.com, reyna.cabrera@enron.com, theresa.branney@enron.com, rockey.storie@enron.com, kent.miller@enron.com, john.dushinske@enron.com, dave.neubauer@enron.com, bill.fowler@enron.com, steven.harris@enron.com, lorraine.lindberg@enron.com, kevin.hyatt@enron.com, christine.stokes@enron.com, tk.lohman@enron.com, michelle.lokay@enron.com, lindy.donoho@enron.com Subject: CPC's Winter Weather Prediction for the U.S. Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Jeffery Fawcett X-To: Lorna Brennan, Lynn Blair, Rick Dietz, Steven January, Sheila Nacey, Donna Scott, Julia White, Mike McGowan, Michael Bodnar, Joni Bollinger, David Badura, Janet Bowers, Craig Buehler, Bob Burleson, Allen Cohrs, John Fiscus, Steve Gilbert, Morgan Gottsponer, Stephen Herber, Dana Jones, Stephanie Korbelik, Bill Mangels, Penny McCarran, Vernon Mercaldo, Larry Pavlou, Eileen Peebles, Tony Perry, Loren Penkava, Ken Powers, Chris Sebesta, Frank Semin, Neal Shaw, Larry Swett, Kay Threet, Mike Ullom, Lisa Valley, Chuck Wilkinson, Jim Wiltfong, Jo Williams, Karen Lagerstrom, Bob Stevens, Sue M Neville, Mike Barry, Martha Janousek, Kimberly Watson, Don Powell, Steve Weller, Michael G Stage, Tim Johanson, Laura Lantefield, Frank Oldenhuis, Jeff Nielsen, Tracy Schwartzkopf, Robert Mason, Sean Bolks, Miriam Martinez, Lee Ferrell, John Williams, Reyna Cabrera, Theresa Branney, Rockey Storie, Kent Miller, John Dushinske, Dave Neubauer, Bill Fowler, Steven Harris, Lorraine Lindberg, Kevin Hyatt, Christine Stokes, TK Lohman, Michelle Lokay, Lindy Donoho X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michelle_Lokay_Dec2000_June2001_1\Notes Folders\Articles X-Origin: LOKAY-M X-FileName: mlokay.nsf Kevin Hyatt and I attended Sempra Energy Trading's weather derivatives briefing in Houston last night, chaired by their chief meterologist, Dan Guertin. Dan's forecast for the winter of '00-01 seems to track pretty much lockstep with the CPC's. Dan also believes that this will be an "oceanographic neutral" winter, with no El Nino or La Nina influences. He sees slightly above average temperatures for the western marketplace and a relatively "normal" winter pattern (30 yr. avg.) for the mid-continent. As far as monthly variations, he is predicting a cooler than usual November - December, and a slightly warmer than usual pattern for the remainder of the heating season. He has promised to make his presentation information available to the briefing attendees. If I can secure a copy of it, I'll pass it on. ET & S Business Intelligence Department From: Lorna Brennan on 09/21/2000 04:04 PM To: Lynn Blair/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Rick Dietz/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steven January/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Sheila Nacey/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Donna Scott/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Julia White/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike McGowan/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michael Bodnar/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Joni Bollinger/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, David Badura/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Janet Bowers/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Craig Buehler/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bob Burleson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Allen Cohrs/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, John Fiscus/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steve Gilbert/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Morgan Gottsponer/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Stephen Herber/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Dana Jones/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Stephanie Korbelik/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bill Mangels/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Penny McCarran/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Vernon Mercaldo/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Larry Pavlou/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Eileen Peebles/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Tony Perry/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Loren Penkava/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Ken Powers/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Chris Sebesta/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Frank Semin/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Neal Shaw/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Larry Swett/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kay Threet/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike Ullom/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lisa Valley/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Chuck Wilkinson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jim Wiltfong/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jo Williams/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Karen Lagerstrom/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bob Stevens/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Sue M Neville/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike Barry/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Martha Janousek/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kimberly Watson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Don Powell/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steve Weller/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michael G Stage/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Tim Johanson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Laura Lantefield/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Frank Oldenhuis/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Jeff Nielsen/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Tracy Schwartzkopf/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Robert Mason/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Sean Bolks/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Miriam Martinez/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lee Ferrell/ET&S/Enron@Enron, John Williams/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Reyna Cabrera/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Theresa Branney/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Rockey Storie/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kent Miller/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, John Dushinske/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Dave Neubauer/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bill Fowler/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Steven Harris/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jeffery Fawcett/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lorraine Lindberg/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kevin Hyatt/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Christine Stokes/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, TK Lohman/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michelle Lokay/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Lindy Donoho/ET&S/Enron@ENRON cc: Subject: CPC's Winter Weather Prediction for the U.S. Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook ? ??? The Climate Prediction Center, a unit of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, discusses the outlook for this winter. The agency does not expect El Nino and La Nina to affect global weather for the next nine months. The two weather patterns, which occur because of changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, directly influence US rain patterns and land temperatures. The CPC says this winter will be the first year in three that the US has not had a strong influence from this particular climate-driving force. But, that does not mean there will be a whole lot of difference in terms of when winter will start. It will have something to do with temperatures, because both La Nina and El Nino have tended to make temperatures moderate in the winter.? The CPC expects that this winter nationwide on average will still be slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as the last three. The northern part of the nation and particularly the Northeast, however, could be an exception with colder weather. The warmer pattern will be confined more to the West and the South. East of the Mississippi with the exception of Florida should be cooler this winter and most of California and the northern half of the Rockies and the Dakotas. For the fall and winter, expect the Southwest to be the mild and dry.