Message-ID: <26516075.1075841088350.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 06:36:34 -0800 (PST) From: edward.kevelson@americas.bnpparibas.com To: ekevelson@aol.com Subject: BNP Paribas NYMEX Floor AM Update Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: edward.kevelson@americas.bnpparibas.com@ENRON X-To: ekevelson@aol.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Maggi, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: MAGGI-M X-FileName: michael maggi 6-25-02.PST DOE's were seen as more negative than API's and will lead to a slightly more bearish tone this morning. Other nuggets on stats: 1) Gasoline demand remains solid. 2) Heating oil days of supply fell to 8 over last year and demand reflected colder than normal temps in the US. Anyway, not a huge surprise in the numbers. The large range game should continue as conflicting geopolitical and fundamental factors cancel each other out and lead to inaction. OPEC is now reported leaking up to 1mmb/d, Russian overproduction is still a concern. However, Iran and Iraq may be draw into the larger military conflict and Iran's current war of words with Israel makes that seem more immediate. So, what to do? Well, we're still in a larger downtrend, as stocks and negative paper spreads make clear. Many are still pinning their hopes on gas season, and demand is still nicely robust. The key will be blending ability, and the overall health of the economy. The uncertainty of last year for refiners is largely removed due to the resolution of the Unocal debacle. That at least gives refiners and blenders a clear playing field. Now the economy; If chemical, jet and industrial demand remains soft, refiners won't see competiton for those blending components. So, we probably will still not see anyone putting all their cards on the table until the start of March, but my gut says there will be no problem making summer spec gas and that talk of a huge gas demand season is largely overblown. Passenger load on airlines now looks to be less than 10% below pre-Sept 11th levels, and a soft economy doesn't necessarily imply people will drive to vacations rather than fly, they may just cut back entirely. Anyway, until the question of gas season is solved we will likely not budge from the existing, but volatile, $18-$21 range. April-June gas cracks did settle back at $7.00, but that's not a big deal given that the range of these over the past two months is $6-$7.50. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Ce message et toutes les pieces jointes (ci-apres le "message") sont etablis a l'intention exclusive de ses destinataires et sont confidentiels. Si vous recevez ce message par erreur, merci de le detruire et d'en avertir immediatement l'expediteur. Toute utilisation de ce message non conforme a sa destination, toute diffusion ou toute publication, totale ou partielle, est interdite, sauf autorisation expresse. L'internet ne permettant pas d'assurer l'integrite de ce message, BNP PARIBAS (et ses filiales) decline(nt) toute responsabilite au titre de ce message, dans l'hypothese ou il aurait ete modifie. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message and any attachments (the "message") are intended solely for the addressees and are confidential. If you receive this message in error, please delete it and immediately notify the sender. Any use not in accord with its purpose, any dissemination or disclosure, either whole or partial, is prohibited except formal approval. The internet can not guarantee the integrity of this message. BNP PARIBAS (and its subsidiaries) shall (will) not therefore be liable for the message if modified. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________