Message-ID: <16301511.1075841090668.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 06:51:06 -0800 (PST)
From: edward.kevelson@americas.bnpparibas.com
To: ekevelson@aol.com
Subject: BNP Paribas NYMEX Floor AM Update
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Well, Thursday turned into quite a "corker" when for most of the day it looked
like nothing would happen. A late run up on products expiry caught the market
off guard and we were able to settle back above the $19.40 mark, which seems now
very unimportant. Believe it or not, we're still in a range, albeit a choppy and
volatile one. Incremental fund positions are getting chopped up. The Access
after market was extremely active and volatile on news reports of a natural gas
pipeline explosion near the Kuwait/Iraq border. We ran up to $20.03 before the
hysteria died down. We then sold back off to $19.09!! In the light of calm, both
are seen as overreactions and we should come in right around unchanged for spot
crude. The worry over the pipeline story wasn't necessarily on a supply
disruption, but the cause of teh explosion. Its proximity to the Iraqi border
raised more wide ranging issues. Heat spreads saw a solid jump up, Mar/Apr into
-10, Apr/May -15, May/June -40. All extended momentum, whether up or down,
appears to have waned. Summer gas cracks are holding on in front of $7.00,
another sign that the downward momentum isn't there right now. OPEC comments
that they would cut production if "other" producers flooded the market (i.ie.
Russia) and a (so far) failed threatened strike by refinery workers in the US
Gulf Coast are also causing some volatility. Good luck today.




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