Message-ID: <30931843.1075841089356.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 06:26:30 -0800 (PST)
From: edward.kevelson@americas.bnpparibas.com
To: ekevelson@aol.com
Subject: BNP Paribas NYMEX Floor AM Update
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-From: edward.kevelson@americas.bnpparibas.com@ENRON
X-To: ekevelson@aol.com
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \ExMerge - Maggi, Mike\Deleted Items
X-Origin: MAGGI-M
X-FileName: michael maggi 6-25-02.PST



Well, let's get back to basics, since timing here on daily moves has been tough.
Are we still mired in a long term downtrend? Have things at least cleaned up a
little over the past two weeks? Is the physical overhang somewhat
counterbalanced by concerns over a widening of military action against other
nations, say Iran/Iraq? If you answered yes to all of these, you're eligible to
read further...

Just some facts:

*The US Northeast is now seeing the coldest temperatures all season, yet heat
cracks lost value yesterday.
*Gas cracks are still holding the $7.00 range, a sign the market is still
willing to give gas season the benefit of the doubt but not much more.
*Russia is still a concern for overproduction. A very soft economy and a desire
for hard currency could easily lead Russian oil companies to cheat the recent
quota.



The technical pattern looks very much like a bearish head and shoulders(see
chart below, I'm referring only to the most recent range between $18 and $22).
At the very least, it implies we will test the neckline again in the next two
weeks. This comes in right at $18.00. A close below would signal thew move
towards $14.00 that looks inevitable for now since the dominant channel is a
downward one. You can also see how we've had difficulty establishing $20.00 as
resistance or support; this is key since it will determine whether the next move
is to $24 or $17.25. Since gas is the seasonal product and gas cracks are still
firm, the range is still dominant. I would expect a close below $18.00 would be
coupled with a move back to or below $6.00 on Q2 gas cracks. But for now, expect
the move back towards $18.00 to get funds shorter again, then also expect the
market to use those new shorts as an upside squeeze play.
(Embedded image moved to file: pic05882.pcx)


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ce message et toutes les pieces jointes (ci-apres le "message") sont etablis a l'intention exclusive de ses destinataires et sont confidentiels. Si vous recevez ce message par erreur, merci de le detruire et d'en avertir immediatement l'expediteur.

Toute utilisation de ce message non conforme a sa destination, toute diffusion ou toute publication, totale ou partielle, est interdite, sauf autorisation expresse.

L'internet ne permettant pas d'assurer l'integrite de ce message, BNP PARIBAS (et ses filiales) decline(nt) toute responsabilite au titre de ce message, dans l'hypothese ou il aurait ete modifie.
	----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This message and any attachments (the "message") are intended solely for the addressees and are confidential. If you receive this message in error, please delete it and immediately notify the sender.

Any use not in accord with its purpose, any dissemination or disclosure, either whole or partial, is prohibited except formal approval.

The internet can not guarantee the integrity of this message. BNP PARIBAS (and its subsidiaries) shall (will) not therefore be liable for the message if modified.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 - pic05882.pcx