Subject: Chicago - O'Hare
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 12:29:42 -0700 (PDT)

Per Your Request:

Average Monthly Temperature - Basis Normal:

May 2000:  +3.1
May 2001:  +1.1

From a demand standpoint:
 - May 2000 - Heating Demand:  There were 13 days with a minimum temperature below 50, 6 days below 45 and no days with a minimum below 40.  There was 1 day with a maximum temperature below 50: May 19th featured a maximum temperature of 48 degrees.  The lowest maximum temperature was 48 degrees on the 19th and the lowest minimum temperature was 40 set on the 14th.  There were no periods during the month where the minimum temperature dropped below 45 degrees for 3 or more consecutive days.
- May 2000 - Cooling Demand: There were 8 days with a maximum temperature 80 or higher.  3 days reached maximum temperature 85 or higher.  The warmest maximum temperature was 86 degrees on May 6th.  There was one stretch of 3 consecutive days where temperatures were 80 or higher - May 4, 5, and 6.

- May 2001 - Heating Demand:  There were 17 days with a minimum temperature below 50, 9 days below 45, and 3 days below 40.  The lowest minimum temperature in the month was 37 on the 13th and lowest maximum temperature was 57 on the 12th and the 27th.  There were two stretches of 3 or more consecutive days with minimum temperatures below 45 - May 11, 12, 13, 14 and May 23, 24, 25, 26.
- May 2001 - Cooling Demand:  There were 8 days with a maximum temperature of 80 or higher.  4 days reached a maximum temperature of 85 or higher.  The warmest maximum temperature was 89 on the 16th.  There were two stretches of 3 or more consecutive with maximums 80 or higher - May 1, 2, 3 and May 15, 16, 17.  May 15, 16, 17 each featured temperatures of 85 or warmer.

Comment:  I think that May of 2001 should have prompted more overall demand than May of 2000 based on the more extreme nature of heat and cool. 

June 2000:  -1.3
June 2001:  To Date: -11.1
                        Forecast for the month:  -3 to -6

From a demand standpoint:
- June of 2000 - Heating Demand:  There were 4 days with a minimum temperature below 50 and no days below 45.  The lowest minimum temperature was 45 on June 3, 5, 6.  One period during the month featured 3 or more days with a minimum temperature below 50; June 5, 6, and 7.
- June of 2000 - Cooling Demand:  There were 12 days with maximum temperatures 80 or higher.  5 days reached 85 or higher.  No days over 90.  The warmest maximum temperature was 89 on June 8.  There was one stretch with 3 or more consecutive days over 80, June 8, 9, 10, 11.  This stretch also featured 3 consecutive days over 85.

- June of 2001 - Heating Demand:  To date:   There have been 5 days with a minimum temperature below 50 and no days below 45.  June 3, 4, and 5 were consecutively below 50 for minimum temperatures.  Forecast:  The forecast through June is likely to bring at least 3 and as many as 6 more days with minimum temperatures below 50.
- June of 2001 - Cooling Demand:  To date:  No days 80 or higher.  Forecast:  June 7 through 20 will likely bring fewer than 4 days with a maximum temperature over 80 and 2 or fewer days over 85.  No days are expected to top 90 before June 20.  No stretches of 3 or more consecutive days over 85 are expected before the 20th.  Long range forecasts would indicate that it is unlikely that any significant stretches of heat will impact Chicago through the end of June.

Comment:  With below to much below normal temperatures continuing for much of June 2001 - cooling load will be less than June of 2000.  I'm not sure exactly how much the increased heating load will off-set the total monthly demand.

Let me know if I can help more...
Steve

Stephen Bennett
Senior Meteorologist
Enron Research
Ext 5-3661