Message-ID: <7147154.1075841394036.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 12:50:29 -0700 (PDT) From: joe.parks@enron.com To: stanley.k.horton@dynegy.com Subject: RE: We Don`t Buy the Falling Natural Gas Demand Story Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Parks, Joe X-To: 'Stanley.K.Horton@dynegy.com' X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Parks, Joe\Sent Items X-Origin: PARKS-J X-FileName: joe parks 6-26-02.pst -----Original Message----- From: Stanley.K.Horton@dynegy.com [mailto:Stanley.K.Horton@dynegy.com] Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 2:50 PM To: Parks, Joe Subject: We Don`t Buy the Falling Natural Gas Demand Story ----- Forwarded by Stanley K Horton/HOU/Dynegy on 05/28/02 02:49 PM ----- RJ EnergyGroup m.rjf.com> cc: Subject: We Don`t Buy the Falling Natural Gas Demand Story 05/28/02 10:20 AM <> Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 5/28/2002. Over the past several weeks, numerous analysts' reports have suggested there has been a massive destruction of gas demand, as gas prices have recently moved above $3.50/mcf. We believe the foundation for many of these reports is both poor analytical methodology and bad data. To conclude that weather-adjusted natural gas demand has fallen by 5 to 10 bcf per day implies a demand deterioration level similar to what we saw in early 2001, when prices soared to near $10 per mcf. Unlike then, today's fuel-switching incentives still favor natural gas. Secondly, there is little economic incentive for today's industrial consumers of natural gas to shut down plants in an improving economic environment. The current economy is very different than the deteriorating economic environment in early 2001. The attached file is in the Adobe Acrobat *.PDF format. If you do not have the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat Reader, you can download it free from http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html#reader. If you should experience problems with this email, please contact Datra Roter, droter@ecm.rjf.com. If you have further questions, please contact any of the following members of the Raymond James Energy Team at 800-945-6275 (Houston). Research Team Oilfield Service E&P Calgary Energy Marshall Adkins Wayne Andrews Ken Faircloth John Tasdemir Jeff Mobley Gordon Gee Jim Rollyson John Tysseland Roger Serin Matthew Burrus Jeff Stultz Andrew Bradford John Freeman James Mullins Grant Daunheimer Matt Meloy Angela Guo Fixed Income Jon Kyle Cartwright (Florida Office) 727-573-8366 Investment Banking Team Houston Dallas Calgary Howard House Allen Lassiter Naveen Dargan Steve Grant Mark Huhndorff Ed Bereznicki Ron Montalbano Scott McNeil Jason Holtby Michael Ames Wes Martin David McGorman John Sterling Kevin Palma Igor Falaleyev Gig Hordes Caroline Troy Vikram Singh Kevin Smith Office Locations Houston Dallas 5847 San Felipe, Suite 720 2001 Ross Avenue, Suite 3500 Houston, TX 77057 Dallas, TX 75201 (800) 945-6275 FAX (713) 789-3581 (800) 393-1314 FAX (214) 720-1315 (713) 789-3551 FAX (713) 266-4117 Calgary St. Petersburg Suite 2500, 707 8(superscript: th) Ave. SW 880 Carillon Parkway, Tower III Calgary AB T2P 1H5 St. Petersburg, FL 33716 888-477-6451 High Grade Trading 800-248-8863 ext. 8336 403-509-0536 High Yield Trading 800-448-6623 Fixed Income Research (727) 573-8366 (See attached file: iEne052802b_16201.pdf)