Message-ID: <1974056.1075854845738.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 7 Aug 2001 10:42:53 -0700 (PDT) From: m..presto@enron.com To: john.arnold@enron.com Subject: RE: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Presto, Kevin M. X-To: Arnold, John X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Presto, Kevin M (Non-Privileged)\Presto, Kevin M.\Sent Items X-Origin: Presto-K X-FileName: Presto, Kevin M (Non-Privileged).pst Only if nuclear fuel storage problems persist. The nuclear fleet, if unencumbered by NRC or spent fuel storage problems, will operate at 90-95% (95% during non-refueling years and 90% during re-fueling years). Remember re-fuelings are now on a 24 month cycle and the next big cycle is spring and fall of 2003. The 2002 re-fueling outages are actually less than normal. -----Original Message----- From: Arnold, John Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:32 PM To: Presto, Kevin M. Subject: RE: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved do you agree with his numbers? -----Original Message----- From: Presto, Kevin M. Sent: Mon 8/6/2001 6:24 PM To: Arnold, John Cc: Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved FYI. -----Original Message----- From: Miller, Don Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 11:03 AM To: Presto, Kevin M.; Robinson, Mitch; Duran, W. David Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved FYI -----Original Message----- From: Jon Cartwright [ ] Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:52 AM To: RJF Energy-Gram (E-mail) Subject: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved > <> > > Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 08/06/01. > > Nuclear power production is about to reach a peak and then drop off > dramatically through the course of 2002. Record levels of nuclear power > production have offset the need for gas-fired electric production to the > tune of an estimated 1.5 to 2.5 bcf/d over the past six months and should > peak at about 3.5 bcf/d late this fall. However, nuclear power fleet > utilization is expected to drop to under 91% heading into summer 2002, > down from a historic high of nearly 97% this past summer. What does this > mean to gas demand for the balance of 2002? Based on our work, we see the > Y-O-Y return of between 1.0 to 1.5 bcf/day of natural gas demand when > nuclear production hits the production cliff next spring. While we have > generally been cautious short term on gas prices the past few months, we > have begun to identify or fill in some portion of the gas demand quotient > for next summer. Unlike this summer, next year is shaping up to be a far > more bullish year for gas, based on the need for gas-fired electric > production to pick up the slack. > > > The attached file is in the Adobe Acrobat *.PDF format. If you do not have > the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat Reader, you can download it free > from > . If you > should experience problems with this email, please contact Datra Roter, > droter@ecm.rjf.com. > > If you have further questions, please contact any of the following members > of the Raymond James Energy Team at 800-945-6275 (Houston). > > Research Team > Oilfield Service E&P Utilities/Energy Calgary > Energy > Marshall Adkins Wayne Andrews Fred Schultz Ken Faircloth > John Tasdemir John Gerdes Greg Haas Gordon Gee > Jim Rollyson John Tysseland Alexandra Fasoli Peter > Tertzakian > Matthew Burrus James Mullins Porfirio Hernandez Roger Serin > John Freeman Jeff Stultz Andrew > Bradford > > Kara Bayton > > Grant Daunheimer > > Angela Guo > Fixed Income > Jon Kyle Cartwright > (Florida Office) > 727-573-8366 > > Investment Banking Team > Oilfield Service E&P Utilities/Energy > Calgary Energy > Steve Grant C.W. Macleod Allen Lassiter Naveen > Dargan > Ron Montalbano Scott Mciell Mark Huhndorff Jason Holtby > John Sterling Wes Martin Barry Hill Igor > Falaleyev > Chad McEver > Caroline Troy > Gib Hordes David Gorman > > Kevin Smith > > Office Locations > Houston Dallas > 5847 San Felipe, Suite 720 2001 Ross Avenue, Suite 1100 > Houston, TX 77057 Dallas, TX 75201 > (800) 945-6275 FAX (713) 789-3581 (800) 393-1314 FAX (214) 720-1315 > (713) 789-3551 FAX (713) 266-4117 > > Calgary St. Petersburg > Suite 2500, 707 8th Ave. SW 880 Carillon Parkway, Tower III > Calgary AB T2P 1H5 St. Petersburg, FL 33716