Message-ID: <30015933.1075858661413.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 11:44:38 -0800 (PST)
From: solutions@zepower.com
To: rring@ees.enron.com
Subject: FORWARD PRICE VIEWS FOR COMPETITIVE ENERGY MARKETS
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 Link to www.ze.com  [IMAGE]  [IMAGE]  [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   =
Forward Price Views for Competitive Energy Markets  [IMAGE] =09
  [IMAGE]   Dear Jubran,   Recognizing the pronounced volatility and uncert=
ainty  in the energy industry, ZE PowerGroup has developed processes and  t=
ools to facilitate dynamic trading and risk management. One of  the foremos=
t tools required for competitive operation is the availability  of represen=
tative forward natural gas and power views for the various  market hubs.   =
Given that generation resource development, price behavior and  industry re=
sponsiveness has been significantly outside of historic  norms established =
during the extended period of regulation, and  given recent world events ha=
ve resulted in greater uncertainty in  the economy it is critical that an o=
rganization be able to probabilistically  predict future prices, with some =
degree of accuracy.  The market is always asking itself questions like:   S=
hould I commit to a deal now or wait?  For how much and for how long should=
 I commit? What is the impact of this transaction on my portfolio? How do m=
arket events impact near, mid and long term pricing? How long will the pric=
e remain at the current level?  A forward view is a prerequisite to manage =
and optimize on an energy  portfolio in competitive markets. ZE PowerGroup =
provides short,  mid and long-term Forward Price Views. The Forward Price V=
iews are  developed using sophisticated, top-down market simulation models =
 that are readily customizable and adaptable in size and scope to  any regi=
on in North America. The Forward Price Models have been  designed using the=
 key drivers and fundamental parameters of the  natural gas and electrical =
power industries in combination with  econometric techniques and expert jud=
gment. The value of the model  is in its ability to extract and quantify th=
e expert judgment.  The difference between the ZE PowerGroup Forward Price =
Model and  other models is that of a top-down market simulation versus bott=
om-up  generation modeling. The bottom-up generation model does not always =
 account for market behavior and assumes that generation is predominantly  =
economically. These modes make little or no allowance for market  power, in=
efficiencies, gaming or other operational or unique market  factors.  ZE Po=
werGroup developed their first price views in 1996. The Forward  Price Mode=
l has performed well as a guiding tool; the views created  from the models =
have consistently predicted the direction of price  movement in the markets=
. It was one of the few models that predicted  rapid and consistent price i=
ncreases after deregulation when the  industry consensus was that prices wo=
uld retreat. Clients who have  incorporated the price views into their stra=
tegic planning have  reaped significant benefits and mitigated price risks;=
 fairing better  than their counterparts.  The Forward Price Model can be c=
oupled with the Market Monitoring  subscription, which adds value through t=
argeted intelligence required  to optimize positioning in uncertain and vol=
atile markets.  ZE PowerGroup strives to provide timely and required intell=
igence  at reasonable cost.  For more information on ZE PowerGroup's Forwar=
d Price Views  or on subscribing to a monthly market monitoring service, pl=
ease  visit our web page at www.ze.com ,  contact us by email at paul@ze.co=
m   or by phone at 604-244-1469.   [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =09
  [IMAGE]   Link to www.ze.com   [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   [IMAGE]   [IMAGE=
]   You received this newsletter because your email  address is on our mail=
ing list. We hope you find our mailings useful.  However, if you'd like you=
r name taken off the mailing list, you  can do so by replying to this email=
 with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.  =09