Message-ID: <10509028.1075851700448.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2001 05:59:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: kevin.cline@enron.com
To: eric.saibi@enron.com, doug.gilbert-smith@enron.com
Subject: ERCOT load growth: Q12000 to Q12001
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The actual mwh growth from Q12000 to Q1 2001 was 3.56% (59,426,845 mwh to 
61,543,268 mwh).  Through my calculations, which I will describe below, I 
arrived at a weather-normalized growth of 4.28% (59,114,067 mwh to 61,646,157 
mwh).  While I would not say that load growth exactly matches my figure, I 
feel confident that load growth in ERCOT was in the range of 3.5% to 4%, year 
over year.

Methodology

To arrive at the 2000 typical loads, I estimated the model using two and one 
half years of data (7/1/97 through 12/31/99) and inserted typical ERCOT 
weather for the period of January 1 through March 31, 2000.  I used the 
resulting loads in my analysis for typical first quarter 2000 loads.  The 
amount of data I used to estimate the ERCOT model in this example is standard 
for each of the load forecasting models I have developed (when that amount of 
data is available). 

To arrive at the 2001 typical loads, I estimated the model using two and one 
half years of data (7/1/98 through 12/31/00) and inserted typical ERCOT 
weather for the period of January 1 through March 31, 2001.   I used the 
resulting loads in my analysis for typical first quarter 2001 loads.

I then compared the results, which I have summarized above.

Let me know if you have any questions.