Message-ID: <5912233.1075861034428.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 05:13:56 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: US Trading Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Markets Eye Earnings Af= ter Greenspan Effect Weighs on USD January 14, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8930 $/JPY= ..131.66 GBP/$..1.4494 $/CHF..1.6554 Markets Eye Earnings After Greenspan = Effect Weighs on USD by Jes Black No Key Data. Event New York Fed Pres McD= onough to speak at 1:15 PM, Minneapolis Fed Pres Stern to speak at 4:00 PM.= USD started the week lower across the board following the Asian markets r= eaction to last Friday's comments by Fed Chairman Greenspan, where he point= ed out that the optimistic view of economy has not yet been reflected in th= e real fundamentals. Therefore, markets are wondering whether earnings warn= ings this week will depress Wall Street after US equities ended a down week= on a down note on Friday. Signals from Greenspan is that it's no shoe in t= hat the economy will come out of the slowdown and return to fast growth als= o mean that markets will look to this week's US data for hints as to the Fe= d's next move at its monetary policy meeting on January 30. EUR/USD rose t= o a day's high of 89.53 before paring gains in European trade to a day's lo= w of 89.22. Weakness against the pound and yen weighed on the EUR/USD rate = as the single currency tested support at 61.50 pence and 117.35 yen. The e= uro barely held above last Friday's low of 117.25 and failure to hold above= 117.50 could be a bearish sign for the euro, especially since much of the = euro's recent strength against the dollar has been derived from its strong = gains against the yen. However, further weakness is not seen unless EUR/USD= falls below support at 89.10. EUR/USD continues to move within a channel = from 88.70 to 89.50 as it hovers around the key 89.10 level, which marks th= e 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 82.25 to 95.96. This level is = significant in that it reflects an equilibrium in supply and demand conditi= on between euro and dollar. Today, the pair briefly tested resistance at 89= .50, but was rejected. Moves higher are not seen by the market as indicatin= g strength given the euro's difficulty to remain above 90-cents. Given the= mixed data from the Euro area and the US, investors are seen waiting on th= e sidelines ahead of the latest round of earnings reports from the US for b= etter direction. Dealers will watch to see if U.S. markets are getting ahea= d of themselves in anticipating a U.S. recovery, meaning that share prices = may be overvalued. Until we see corporate earnings improving, share prices = aren't likely to rise. Moreover, companies are likely to put all their bad = news into Q4 reports for a clean slate in 2002, stock analyst say. On Frid= ay, Greenspan said a key feature of the recent downturn was a lack of busin= ess investment. He said that when it does recover, spending will not resume= at breakneck speed. Instead, the present cycle will be driven by a return = of corporate profits and capital investment. But those levels aren't expect= ed to reach the levels it did in 1999 and early 2000 when companies were pr= eparing for the Y2K date change and spending large amounts of money on IT i= nvestment. This chimed with Richmond Fed president Broaddus who said last w= eek "there's a good chance that the US economy may be at least a little sof= ter than the consensus" expectations and predicted "a more gradual recovery= from the recession than in most other post-war business cycles. Although= a restrained economic assessment by Greenspan initially weighed on the dol= lar, markets may interpret it as slowing the recovery in the euro area as w= ell, which would weigh on the euro. Sterling rose to a day's high of $1.45= 05 continued to trade near a day's high of 61.55 pence despite November ind= ustrial production, which fell more than expected at -0.7% m/m and -5.4% y/= y. The manufacturing numbers were disappointing , but not surprising given = the attention paid to the UK's "two speed" economy which BoE officials have= spoken of in the past. The data confirms the recessionary state of the sec= tor. GBP was supported by weekend comments from PM Blair concerning EMU e= ntry. Blair's cautionary remark that there must be an examination of the ec= onomic benefits of joining the euro before his government could recommend m= embership helped push EUR/GBP to a low of 61.55. GBP is now close to its 20= 01 opening level around 61 pence after falling as far as 62.80 at the start= of the year. GBP/USD resistance is seen at 1.450 and 1.4550. Support holds= at 1.4370, 1.4340 and 1.4320. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis BoE inact= ion Lifts GBP, Comments Hurt CHF Articles & Ideas Greenspan Widens = Door for One More, But... A Weak Yen Is the Solution for Now Artic= les & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Libr= ary [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe fr= om this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . =09