Message-ID: <16039424.1075858800977.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2001 04:38:45 -0700 (PDT) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: US Trading Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \SSHACKL (Non-Privileged)\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: SSHACKL (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 2.5% 0.15% 3.7= 5% 4.5% 1.75-2.75% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] FX Majors Rangebound, USD L= ooks To Earnings & Data October 18, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.9018 $/JPY..120.94 G= BP/$..1.4429 $/CHF..1.6383 FX Majors Rangebound, USD Looks To Earnings & D= ata by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM US Jobless Claims (exp 485k, prev 468k) At = 12:00:00 PM US October Phil Fed Survey (exp -16.5, prev -7.3) Major curren= cies moved rangebound in listless trade as markets lacked any new direction= . General reluctance to trade in an environment of global uncertainty kept = dealers on the sidelines. The dollar is seen on edge before the Wall Street= open as investors await another barrage of earnings reports. So far, 25 of= the latest 63 earnings results haven't met expectations, and the tech sect= or is under heavy pressure in Europe today after the Nasdaq dropped 4.4% an= d the Dow fell 1.61% overnight. Today's economic data may push the dollar t= o the lower part of its range. Expectations are for US weekly jobless claim= s to rise 485,000 in the October 13 week, up from 468,000 prior week. Last = week was impacted by seasonal data, but as continuing claims surge higher, = the unemployment rate is on its way to hitting 5%. The US Philly Fed survey= will also be watched because it is seen as an early read on US manufacturi= ng in October. The headline survey is expected to fall to -16.5 from -7.3, = and the market will also look to its new orders component, which is seen as= a leading indicator. The dollar steadied on Thursday after an extremely = choppy US session overnight, which was provoked by a surge in anxiety follo= wing news of more anthrax attacks against the US. Fed Chairman Greenspan tr= ied to calm fears by saying that long-term prospects of the US economy rema= ined bright, but US equity markets were more concerned about the uncertaint= y of when the US would recover. The White House's Lindsey also said on Wedn= esday the US will probably see "small negative" GDP in Q3, therefore making= it likely the US economy will have 2 quarters of negative GDP and official= ly be in a state of recession. Nevertheless, dealers were quick to push the= euro and yen back down amid sentiment that the US would fare better than J= apan and the Eurozone because of more fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U= S. Indeed that sentiment was reinforced by today's cut in the German growt= h forecast. FinMin Eichel said Germany's economy was likely to grow by arou= nd 0.75% this year and by 1.0-1.5% in 2002. Markets have long been weary ab= out European nation growth forecasts and this week even the European Union = warned against what it saw to be over inflated expectations. Therefore, the= market has been very reluctant to buy the euro, even amid the US war in Af= ghanistan (with ground troops now) and increasing occurrences of bio-terror= ism on US soil. The short-term outlook for the euro was not helped by the= European Central Bank's bulletin which echoed statements from last Thursda= y when it kept interest rates on hold. The ECB said that despite the fact t= hat the September 11 attacks could delay a rebound in the euro zone's slugg= ish economy, it felt that monetary policy was appropriate at the moment. De= alers were less sure, and kept EUR/USD near day lows around 90 cents. EUR/U= SD hit a session high of 90.40 but remains in its downward channel since pe= aking at 93.38 on September 17, and was further weakened by its inability t= o maintain gains above 90.85 last week, which led to a net reduction in lon= g positions. Therefore, the technical outlook for the euro remains bearish = as it targets last week's lows of 89.87. Near-term resistance is seen at 90= .40 followed by 90.85. Meanwhile, USD/CHF also traded rangebound around the= key 1.6400 mark. The biggest mover was sterling which broke lower out of = its consolidation pattern. GBP/USD hit a session low of 1.4423 after testin= g upside resistance at 1.4500. Cable continues to trade in a range from 1.4= 400 to 1.4550 since last Thursday. Resistance is now seen at 1.4450, the 61= .8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 1.4395-1.4540. If sterling canno= t regain this level, cable is seen targeting 1.4400, the 38.2% Fibonacci re= tracement of the move from 1.37 to last Monday's 8-1/2 month high of 1.4836= . Today's mixed retail sales data had little effect on the pound. Monthly= retail sales were lower than expected but the August figures were revised = up. Retail sales growth is still very strong and this is a positive for ste= rling because it shows a resilient consumer. And, since the BoE has left th= e door open for more rate cuts, any fall in consumer confidence would likel= y be met by further rate cuts, thus supporting sterling. Meanwhile, USD/JP= Y traded around the 121 figure. A minor setback in USD/JPY came following c= omments by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who was reported as= saying it was harmful to think a weak yen would solve Japan's economic pro= blems. But, the dollar continues to find support on hopes the U.S. economy = will improve in the long term. Today, Finance Minister Shiokawa said he cou= ld not assure that the Japanese economy would not contract. But this was no= t a surprise to the markets considering Japan's GDP fell 0.8 percent in Apr= il-June from the previous quarter, and many economists expect full-year con= traction for the current fiscal year ending in March 2002. USD/JPY now hove= ring above support at 120.85 after failing to break resistance around the 1= 22 level on Wednesday. For now, bull trend remains in doubt unless it can r= egain the 121.00 level. If not, USD/JPY expected to trade in a range of 120= to 122. European bourses are down around 2% this morning, following techs= lower after yesterday's slide in the Nasdaq. The tech sector is under heav= y pressure and 4 key tech companies report today. Those are Sun, Ebay and G= ateway. But Microsoft's announcement is not seen to be key because the rele= ase of Windows XP later this month will put that revenue in next quarter's = release. GM's earnings will be watched for a positive surprise considering = their large gains in market share through 0% financing in the later part of= Q3. The dollar will likely trade around the earnings parade and given stro= ng investor worries about the economic recovery in the US, the dollar will = be affected by the direction of US stocks. Other key companies announcing t= heir earnings today are Coke, Merrill, and Boeing. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. = Analysis Euro Closes Below 90.50 Despite New Anthrax Cases Articles &= Ideas EURO: German IFO Will Remind ECB to Build Growth Dollar Comeback= Stopped by Risk of Terrorism Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Econo= mic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . =09