Message-ID: <25793133.1075861036029.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 16:22:53 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading = Preview January 21, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8829 $/JPY..132.84 GBP/$..1.4351 $/CH= F..1.6615 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. = In thin trading due to US holiday, market focus is shifting to a meeting be= tween the US Treasury Secretary O'Neill and Japanese Finance Minister Shiok= awa scheduled at 7:15 pm EST. Although traders do not expect the forex to b= e the main topic of the conversation, some think that O'Neill might say som= ething to approve the present government policy over weak yen. In yesterday= 's trading the BoJ published the minutes of their November 29 meeting, show= ing members voted 8-1 to ease monetary policy. Moreover, a Japan MoF offici= al urged debate on BoJ buying of foreign bonds as a way to weaken the yen. = Given BoJ Governor Hayami's increasing concern with deflation, it is likely= that the central bank could soon increase the money supply, allowing the y= en to depreciate further. The number of Japanese corporate bankruptcies in = 2001 was the second highest since the 1945 while total liabilities fell 30.= 8% from the record high in 2000. The number of corporate failures last year= jumped sharply after Mycal went bust and business sentiment deteriorated i= n the wake of the terrorist attacks on the U.S. in September Japan's Financ= ial System Minister Yanagisawa stressed PM's Koizumi's determination to tak= e every possible measure to avoid volatility in the financial system during= a Monday meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. During the mee= ting, Yanagisawa told O'Neill that Japan now has a secure safety net, after= going through the 1998 financial crisis. Yanagisawa also referred to a sys= tem that allows the government to inject up to 15 trillion yen worth of pub= lic funds in case of a financial crisis. Concerning the issue of bad-debt d= isposals, Yanagisawa told O'Neill that the Japanese government aims to take= final steps to separate bad loans from banks' assets in two to three years= . Moody's announced Monday it has changed the rating outlook for 10 major J= apanese banks from stable to negative, due to concerns over probable negati= ve effects of the planned April abolition of the government's full guarante= e on deposits at failed lenders. Finance Minister Shiokawa said Monday the = government plans to avoid a deflationary spiral with a second supplementary= budget for fiscal 2001, which is also aimed at speeding up the economic st= ructural reform initiatives of PM Koizumi. In December the government compi= led a package of economic programs worth 4.1 trillion yen ''to accelerate e= conomic structural reform and avoid the economy's deterioration with increa= sing speed along with continuing deflation . Support is seen at 132.0, 131.= 80 and 131.60. Resistance is eyed at 133.0 and 133.35. EUR/USD is trading = around 88.30 weighed by the third straight fall in Eurozone industrial prod= uction to -0.8% m/m in November from the previous -0.4%, or to -4.3% y/y vs= . the previous -2.7% in its largest annual decline since July 1993. The dat= a bodes poorly for Q4 GDP figures, and thus centers markets' focus on the E= uropean Central Bank. German FinMin Eichel said that German budgetary defic= it policy did not face any criticism on Monday's euro group meeting. Eurogr= oup's Rato believed the ECB thought economic downturn scenario not too worr= ying. Rato added that appropriate policies have been adopted to help recove= ry. EU's Solbes said euro zone structural deficits would improve in 2002 an= d 2003 while the euro zone CPI is likely to fall under 2% in Q1. Although t= he Bundesbank's Welteke reiterated the ECB's insistence on keeping monetary= policy unchanged, many analysts believe the ECB will lower rates by 50-bas= is points over the next few months now that inflation has fallen to the 2% = target rate. In addition, all ears will be tuned in to European Central Ban= k President Duisenberg's testimony on Wednesday before the EU's Economic an= d Monetary Affairs Committee for any hints about future interest rate cuts = and the Eurozone economic outlook. Resistance is seen at 88.80, 89.50 and 9= 0.0. Support is viewed at 88.0, 87.50 and 87.0. The major event of this we= ek will be Fed Chairman Greenspan's testimony before the Senate Budget Comm= ittee on Thursday since markets are anxious to hear his remarks on the econ= omy and any clues they might glean about the central bank's monetary policy= . In particular, economists believe that Greenspan's testimony may also be = supportive to the dollar following a report in the Washington post that acc= ording to Fed sources, Greenspan "sounded more pessimistic than intended ab= out the prospects for U.S. economic recovery". According to the sources, th= e Fed Chairman is likely to comment more positively about the current state= of the US economy, and therefore markets are now pricing in less than a 30= % chance of a rate cut at the Jan 30 meeting, leaving the majority to belie= ve rates will be held steady at a 40-year low of 1.75%. This week's other = key US indicators include jobless claims and existing home sales. Fed Chair= man Greenspan's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee will be the ma= jor event of the week, with markets cautious to hear his remarks on the eco= nomy. From the Eurozone, major data due for release consist of Euroarea for= eign trade, HICP, French CPI, Italian industrial orders, Euroarea labor cos= ts, German CPI, Italy's ISAE consumer confidence survey, ECB monthly bullet= in, German PPI, Italian CPI, Italy's ISAE industrial confidence survey, Ita= lian retail sales and Spanish PPI. Economic highlights from Japan comprise = the trade balance, index of tertiary sector activity, corporate service pri= ces and consumer prices. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Quiet Market Aw= aits Data, USD Talk Articles & Ideas Philly Fed-Supported Optimism = EUR/USD: Technical Analysis Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Econo= mic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe fr= om this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . 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