Message-ID: <4228446.1075861039105.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 17:06:36 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre= view January 31, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8578 $/JPY..134.90 GBP/$..1.4093 $/CHF.= .1.7207 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. T= he dollar is trading off its fresh 3-years high of 135.14 yen on combinati= on of possibility of S?downgrade; fall in PM Koizumi's popularity and marke= ts optimism about the US recovery. Standard & Poor's rating agency said Jap= an faces the risk of a third rating downgrade in a year because its economy= has fallen into a worrisome'' deflationary recession. " Furthermore, ove= rnight comments by MoF Mizoguchi did little to stem the bearish sentiment t= owards the yen, since he said that while Japan was not driving the yen down= , it was still correcting from excessive strength. Japanese network Tokyo C= hannel 12 showed Prime Minister Koizumi's popularity fell to 34.7% after he= fired Foreign Minister Tanaka compared with a 64.4% rating two weeks earli= er. Markets were uneasy about Koizumi's political decision, since it could = impede the implementation of structural reforms. US Secretary of Treasury O= 'Neill said that he had no sympathy for US manufacturers who are complainin= g about the strong dollar and expressed his hope about the economic recover= y. At the current World Economic Forum in New York, Fuji Xerox's Chairman a= nd CEO Yotaro Kobayashi said today that it would be acceptable for the yen = to weaken to 140 per dollar, but a fall below that to 150-160 per dollar wo= uld create trouble since "it may have a major negative impact on interest r= ates and on our trade relationship with the United State or other countries= " Kobayashi also pointed out that the falling yen would ameliorate Japan's = deflationary spiral, but warned that too steep a plunge would push up real = interest rates that would hinder Japan from clawing back out of its fourth = recession in the past ten years. Foreign investors were net sellers of Japa= nese equities for a second week in the five days ended Jan. 25. Nikkei fell= below 10,000 yesterday for the first time since Oct. 10 as Japanese stocks= remain lethargic, reflecting the poor outlook of Japanese economy. Japan = has been pressured by other Asian nations, such as China and South Korea, t= o stem the yen's decline as it makes their exports less competitive. Japan = December housing starts fell 12.9% from a year-earlier to 95,431 units, due= to weakening consumer desire for mortgages as unemployment continues to ri= se. Resistance is seen at 135.25, 135.80 and 136. Support holds at 134.50, = 134, and 133.70. The euro fell two-third cents to a 3-session low of 85.7= 9 against the triumphant dollar, dragged by the rise in German CPI to 0.9% = m/m in January from the previous 0.1% and upbeat market sentiment about the= US recovery. Preliminary data from several German states indicated that th= e upswing in prices resulted primarily from rising food prices and increase= s in taxes rather than euro cash related markups. Since German prices excee= ded forecasts and because they tend to be be indicative of an overall rise = in Eurozone inflation in January, analysts believe the European Central Ban= k is unlikely to lower interest rates when it next meets to determine monet= ary policy on February 7. This was evident in ECB Wellink's statement that = there is no need for monetary policy action to counter the effect of the eu= ro on prices. Support is seen at 85.55-- the 71.8% Fibonacci retracement of= the move from 82.25 to 95.95, backed by 85.0. Upside capped at 86.60, 87.0= and 87.50. The first piece of data markets will look at Friday is the Jan= uary US labor market report. Although the unemployment rate is forecasted t= o creep higher to 5.9% in January from the previous 5.8%, non-farm payrolls= are seen to improve to between 27k and 50k from 124k in December. The a= pparent contradiction between the aforementioned variables is explained by = the unrelenting climb in continued claims to 3,382,000 in the week of Janua= ry 19 from the previous revised 3,361,000, whereas the US 4-week average fe= ll to its lowest level since August 2001 to 386k in the week of January 26 = from the previous revised 401,250. The greenback overlooked this week's ris= e in US jobless claims to 390k from the previous revised 360k, since it cam= e in below the 400k-level. Following tomorrow morning's labor report, the d= ollar is likely to find support from the release of the ISM (formerly NAPM)= Purchasing Managers Index as it looks poised to jump to 49.4 in January fr= om the previous 48.2, possibly even breaching the key 50-level. Various com= ponents of the index, including production, new orders and employment, are = forecasted to exhibit a similar expansion. The University of Michigan confi= dence survey is not anticipated to generate waves in FX markets, as forecas= ts call for the final January reading to remain virtually unchanged at 94.3= . Meanwhile, traders will also be monitoring this week's World Economic For= um in New York and next week's G7 meeting in Toronto for any dollar policy = rhetoric in light of the recent complaints about the strong dollar by manuf= acturers. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Yen Battered Across the Board = Articles & Ideas USD/JPY: ONeill, Koizumi and January Effect Fed M= oves On, Dollar Moves Up Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic I= ndicators Forex Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . 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