Message-ID: <30282268.1075861039748.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 04:54:47 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: US Trading Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] USD Quiet Ahead of Key Q4 = Productivity Data February 6, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8675 $/JPY..133.41 GBP/$..= 1.4148 $/CHF..1.6955 USD Quiet Ahead of Key Q4 Productivity Data by Jes Bl= ack At 8:30:00 AM US Q4 Unit Labor costs prel (exp 2.2%, prev 2.3%) US Q4 = Productivity prel (exp 2.9%, prev 1.5%) There was little action in the for= eign exchange market on Wednesday ahead of today's key US productivity data= for the fourth quarter due at 8:30 AM. Consensus forecasts have been revis= ed higher this week as confidence in the US productivity miracle grew. Th= e currenct estimate is for Q4 productivity to rise 2.9% from the 1.5% gain = in Q3 of last year. That is close to the average annual rate of 3.07% per = annum from 1995-2002 estimated by White House economists in the Bush admini= stration's first annual Economic Report of the President, released on Wedne= sday. The productivity figure is key to the dollar because its strong perf= ormance against other currencies is a reflection of higher productivity gro= wth than other industrialized nations. This also explains why the US is a n= et beneficiary of capital flows as investors believe that productivity grow= th in the US will be a better investment. The dollar was little changed ag= ainst the euro from its US close after a sharp rebound on Tuesday allowed i= t to recover most of this week's losses. The euro held onto half of Monday'= s gains after a large rise against the yen helped it back above the psychol= ogical 87-cent mark. However, that brief rally soon ran out of steam and EU= R/USD is now trading in a range of 86.50 to 86.80. Failure to regain resis= tance at 86.80 is seen calling upon support at 86.35 and 86.00, before anot= her attempt at 86.60. Resistance is seen at 87.10, which marks the 38.2% re= tracement of the .8953-.8560 move. A rise above that level would target the= key 87.50 mark and a breach of this level would be bullish for the EUR/USD= . However, only a move above past resistance at 88.60 would really damage t= he bear trend. The euro was unchanged by data showing unemployment in Germ= any rose sharply in January, sending the jobless total above 4m. The season= ally unadjusted number of unemployed soared to 4.29m from 3.96m in December= , carrying the unemployment rate to 10.4% from 9.6%. German Labor office's = Jagoda says economic weakness continues to impact on labor market and as lo= ng as weakness persists he cannot rule out a marginal rise in unemployment = next month as well. The data is likely to give Chancellor Gerhard Schroder'= s centre-left government trouble as it is restrained from doing much due to= the fiscal restraints of the Masstricht treaty. Meanwhile, all eyes are o= n this week's central bank meetings from the Eurozone, UK and Japan. Both t= he ECB and BoE are expected to hold rates unchanged, but given the resurgin= g pessimism surrounding the Japanese economy, there is a chance the Bank of= Japan will take additional easing steps to stop the deflationary trend tha= t menaces the economy. In order to curb the sharp rise in Japanese Governm= ent Bonds, the Bank of Japan might surprise markets and increase the outrig= ht purchases of JGBs at Friday's policy meeting. Currently they purchase 80= 0 billion worth of JGBs per month and may decide to increase this by 10-25%= to around 1 trillion in an effort to increase liquidity and stabilize bond= yields. The move would likely weaken the yen. However, the yen has found = support from Japan's top financial diplomat, Kuroda, who said that rapid fo= reign exchange movements are undesirable and that he saw no risk of further= yen weakness, thereby hinting to dealers that Japan was comfortable with a= range of 130-135, for now. USD/JPY broke below support at 133.60 after fa= iling to break 134.20 earlier. The pair fell to a session low of 133.38. Su= pport is seen at 132.80 and this week's low of 131.90. Resistance is seen a= t 134.40 and 135.20. GBP/USD fell to a day's low of 1.4125, near yesterday= 's support at 1.4115 after peaking at a 1-week high of 1.4247 in European t= rade on Tuesday. A break below 1.4110 would call upon key support at 1.4180= , which marks the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4418-1.4038 move. Follow up su= pport is seen at last week's 6-month lows of 1.4045. Upside capped at 1.423= 5, 1.4270 and 1.4300. Sterling was supported by data showing the average v= alue of a UK house has risen above 100,000 GBP for the first time following= another strong price increase in January. The rise in home prices is likel= y to be a boost to consumer confidence and spending in the UK. The dollar = will continue to follow moves on Wall Street after another down day on Tues= day highlighted investors' concerns as the mood again turned to cautious fo= r the US. With the economic rebound already priced into the dollar at last = week's highs, Monday's US equity sell-off was all it took to bring about a = strong correction in USD from its recent six-month highs against the euro a= nd three-year highs against the yen. Today's earnings reports will focus o= n such key companies as Anheuser-Busch, Cisco Systems, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer,= and Pepsico. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Yen Crushed Amid Nikkei Slide= Articles & Ideas Dollar Does Davos In New York USD/JPY: ONeill, K= oizumi and January Effect Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic = Indicators Forex Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. 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