Message-ID: <11229309.1075861040145.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 16:12:25 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre= view February 7, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8702 $/JPY..133.92 GBP/$..1.4141 $/CHF.= .1.6914 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 12:00:00 AM J= apan Dec Machinery orders m/m (exp -10%, prev 14.9%) At 6:50:00 PM Japan Ja= n Domestic WPI y/y (exp -1.3%, prev -1.4%) Japan Jan Money Supply (exp 3.5= %, prev 3.4%) The dollar rose to 134 yen after January domestic WPI fell 0= .2% m/m. The index was down 1.4% from the previous year, the 16 th consecut= ive month of year on year decline, adding to gloomy economic outlook. Janua= ry M2+CD money supply rose 3.6% y/y. For the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada = this weekend, some analysts think that Japan seems reluctant to weaken the = yen significantly, given all the criticism by its Asian neighbors and US ma= nufacturers that the weak yen is undermining their trade competitiveness. I= n the meantime, markets are also anxious about any monetary policy decision= that might be reached at the ongoing Bank of Japan meeting. With deteriora= ting conditions, the BoJ is under considerable pressure to ease monetary po= licy to address the nation's economic quagmire. Since interest rates are ne= arly zero, the central bank may have to resort to increasing its purchases = of JGBs from the current level of 800 billion yen to nearly 1 trillion yen = in order to inject liquidity in markets and stabilize bond yields. Any such= move would likely weaken the yen further, and thus skeptics believe the Bo= J may refrain from such a drastic measure because of international pressure= at the G7 meeting. PM Koizumi said on Thursday he was willing to continue = with reforms despite the plunge in his cabinet's approval ratings.' I belie= ve structural reform is needed to realize sustainable growth of the Japanes= e economy in the future,'' the PM said. Koizumi also repeated the governmen= t's plan to take brave measures to evade a financial crisis. Support is vi= ewed at 133.40, 133.0 and 132.65. Upside capped at 134.15, 134.40 and 134.8= 0. US Treasury Secretary O'Neill advocated that all G7 nations must donate= to growth to increase living standards. He declared that the worst of the = US economic slowdown is over and that there are more signs that a US econom= ic recovery is present. Furthermore, O'Neill urged Japan to implement measu= res to get its economy on track, but declined to comment on the value of th= e Japanese yen. EUR/USD is trading near its day's highs of 87.13 underpinn= ed by ECB President Duisenberg's announcement of his retirement in July 200= 3, as well as optimism over the Eurozone's economic future. ECB's Duisenber= g announced today his decision to step down early for reasons of transparen= cy and to squash speculation, adding that it is a well-known fact that he w= ould not stay for a full-term, but ruled out the possibility of retiring ea= rlier than July 2003. He stressed that there is no connection between his a= nnouncement and a succession by serving Vice-President Noyer. German indust= rial orders rose 5.0% m/m in December from the previous 0.6%, fueling hopes= that a recbound is in the works. Traders disregarded the European Central = Bank's result this morning to hold rates steady at 3.25% because they are a= t an suitable level. ECB head Duisenberg commented that monetary developmen= ts do not create risks to price stability, but added that a reassessment ma= y be needed if the economy recovers. ECB President Duisenberg once again re= iterated that inflation should fall below 2% this year and stay there, thou= gh he foresaw inflation would be erratic in early 2002. Moreover, French Fi= nance Minister Fabius confirmed that he lowered France's growth outlook in = 2002 to 1.4-1.6% from an initial range of 2.25-2.5%, and projected GDP in 2= 003 between 2.8-3.2%. Resistance is seen at 87.20, 87.50 and 88.0. Support = stands at 86.35, 86.0 and 85.55-- the 71.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mo= ve from 82.25 to 95.95. The UK currency shrugged off the Bank of England's= unsurprising decision this morning to leave rates unchanged at 4.0% in lig= ht of the UK's 2-speed economy characterized by robust consumer and housing= spending that is being offset by a contracting manufacturing industry. Res= istance is eyed at 1.4165, 1.420 and 1.4235. Support holds at 1.4060, 1.404= 0 and 1.40. This week's remaining US indicator is wholesale trade. From t= he Eurozone, major economic releases consist of German industrial productio= n and Dutch CPI. Highlights from Japan are money supply, wholesale prices a= nd machinery orders. Over the weekend, currency traders will be carefully m= onitoring any developments at the G7 meeting in Toronto for any mention of = the weak yen or strong dollar policies. ECB President Duisenberg indicated = that the euro is unlikely to be mentioned in the G7 communique. =09[IMAG= E] Audio Mkt. Analysis Euro Crawls Higher in Quiet Trading Articles &= Ideas A Weak Yen Bites Even Koizumi Drags Down the Yen Articles &= Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library = [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. 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