Message-ID: <6280040.1075861041174.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 16:07:56 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre= view February 12, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8763 $/JPY..132.75 GBP/$..1.4320 $/CHF= ..1.6850 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 6:50:00 PM J= apan Q3 GDP y/y revised (exp n/f, prev -2.2%) Japan Q3 GDP q/q revised (exp= n/f, prev -0.5%) The dollar fell to a new one week low vs. the yen around= 132.70, due to repatriation flows and on talks government would step up to= rescue ailing banks. The Japanese currency also rose by nearly a full yen = to a 3-session high of 116.19 against the euro, in spite of the Bank of Jap= an's continuing gloomy economic outlook for the second month in a row in Fe= bruary. In its monthly report, the BOJ cited deteriorating labor market con= ditions and a worsening deflationary spiral as reasons for its pessimism. J= uly-Sept real GDP revised to - 0.5% q/q (vs. prel -0.5%) Japan July Sept ca= pital spending revised to up 1.6% q/q (prel up 1.1%) Japan Jan net foreign = bond selling Y3.0712 trln yen (Dec Y827.1 bln selling) Foreigners' Jan net = Japan bond selling Y1.2368 trln (Dec Y172.22 blne selling). Separately, a r= eport in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said that Standard & Poor's rating agency= might change its ratings on Japanese government bonds unless Japan pushes = through reform measures or starts exhibiting signs of a rebound. In the com= ing days, FX traders will be listening for any comments that may emerge fro= m President Bush's trip to Japan on February 17. Nihon Keizai Shimbun surve= y showed that only balancing economic stimulus pared with structural reform= s could bring the country out of recession. Only one out of three Japanese = in a survey thinks that PM Koizumi will be able to implement reforms withou= t sacrificing growth, employment. Japan is nervously trying to create the o= utline of its comprehensive policy remedy to tackle inflation ahead of US P= resident Bush's weekend visit to Japan. "The problem of deflation is an ext= remely important issue in structural reform," Koizumi said and "the governm= ent and the BOJ must tackle this together." Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey con= ducted over the weekend announced that public approval for PM Koizumi plung= ed to its lowest level of just 55% down 23 points from November due to rece= nt firing of foreign minister Tanaka and prolonged economic slowdown. USD/J= PY support is seen at 132.50, 132.20 and 132.0. Resistance is eyed at 134.0= , 134.60 and 135.0. The pound soared nearly a full cent to a 3-week high o= f 1.4346 against the dollar and climbed one-third pence to a 1-week high of= .6111 against the euro, cheered by the larger-than-expected surge in UK RP= IX to 2.6% y/y in January from the previous 1.9%, thereby breaking above th= e Bank of England's 2.5% inflation target. The data suggests that as inflat= ion rises because of strong domestic consumption, the BoE could begin raisi= ng interest rates soon since it has the highest rate of growth among all th= e G7 nations. Thus markets will be interested in seeing the BoE's quarterly= inflation report due tomorrow for clues about its next monetary policy dec= ision. The BoE Governor George said that January unexpected jump in inflati= on was likely erratic and it should be around 2.5% Bank's ceiling around = two years. His comments could dampen the market expectations of rate rise. = George said that he could not say the rate hike is imminent, but he is prep= ared to lower rates if needed. George also commented that the euro's levels= are puzzlingly weak and he believed the single currency would strengthen i= n near future. EUR/USD is trading around 87.60 underpinned by relief that= Germany was not issued a formal warning about its budget deficit at the Eu= rozone finance ministers' meeting. Both Germany and Portugal vowed to keep = their budget deficits below the EU's 3% of GDP limit. Analysts noted that b= ecause of the lack of a reprimand, Germany would not have to slash public s= pending that would boost growthThe single currency was under slight downwar= d pressure from reports that European telecom Carrier 1 was filing for bank= ruptcy. Upside capped at 88.0, 88.50 and 89.0. Support holds at 87.0, 86.65= and 86.40. Tomorrow's release of US retail sales is expected to show a d= ecline to -0.3% in January from the previous -0.1% due to falling auto sale= s. However, retail sales ex-autos are forecasted to rise to 0.4% in January= from -0.1% in December helped by strong general merchandise and apparel sa= les. This week's other major US economic releases include retail sales, jo= bless claims, business inventories, import prices, PPI, industrial producti= on and the University of Michigan confidence survey. Key Eurozone indicator= s consist of the ECB monthly bulletin, Dutch GDP, French employment, French= trade balance, French industrial production and Italian industrial product= ion. Noteworthy UK data releases are the labor market report and the Bank o= f England inflation forecast. Highlights from Japan comprise GDP, balance o= f payments, industrial production and Tokyo department store sales. =09[= IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis JPY, GBP rise in quiet session Articles & = Ideas Euro Rally Running Out of Steam The Swiss National Bank and the fr= anc Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Gui= des Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09