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Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 16:12:17 -0800 (PST)
From: info@forexnews.com
To: sara.shackleton@enron.com
Subject: Japanese Preview
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[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums:  Forexnews Forum       T=
echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca   J.P. Chorek=
   Technical Research Ltd.   Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's     =
  Interest Rates   US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland:   1.75%  0.15%  3.=
25%  4.0%  1.25-2.25%       [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE]  Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view  February 20, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8700 $/JPY..133.77 GBP/$..1.4271 $/CHF=
..1.6997  Japanese Forex Trading Preview  by Darko Pavlovic  At 6:50:00 PM =
Japan Dec Tertiary Index (exp -1.5%, prev 1.7%) Japan Dec All ind. index (e=
xp -0.5%, prev 0.4%)  The dollar is likely to test 134 yen on Tokyo's Thurs=
day trading following the rise in US stocks and optimism about the world's =
biggest economy.  In Asian trading, the Japanese currency had risen on repo=
rts that Bank of Japan Governor Hayami had asked Prime Minister Koizumi to =
consider injecting public funds into the ailing banking sector, although go=
vernment spokesman Fukuda later denied. Markets will eye speech from former=
 finance minister for international affairs Sakakibara alias Mr. Yen for hi=
s most of the times accurate predictions about the economic outlook. The sp=
eech is due at 1:00 AM EST. Japan Dec all industries activity index rose 1%=
 from the previous month. The core component of tertiary sector index rose =
0.7%. For the Oct-Dec quarter the all industries index fell 0.7% from the p=
revious quarter. The tertiary index was up 0.1% In the immediate-term, the =
yen's losses are likely to be limited by repatriation before the Japanese f=
iscal year ends on March 31, after which point, the currency is seen to tum=
ble further in the absence of crucial reform initiatives. The mid sized bui=
lder company Haseko's shares had been temporarily suspended in Tokyo tradin=
g after media reports that the company will ask creditors to covert 150 bln=
 yen in debt to equity. The lower house Budget Committee will hold public h=
earings on the fiscal 2002 budget next week, clearing the way for the budge=
t's passage in the full lower house as early as March 5. Subsequent to pass=
age in the lower house, the government and the coalition parties expect to =
have the full upper house approve the fiscal 2002 budget on about March 20.=
 The January consumer sentiment index rose 5.4 points from the previous mon=
th to -31.2, its first improvement in two months. Of respondents, 9.5% repo=
rted improved circumstances, up 2.4 pts from December, and 40.7% reported a=
 worsening in their financial state, down 3.0 pts. The BoJ Hayami was reluc=
tant on Feb. 15 meeting to increase its outright monthly govt. bond purchas=
es due to negative side effects on long term rates. The Finance Minister Sh=
iokawa has frequently said he would like the BOJ increase its JGB buys to Y=
1.0 trillion from the current Y800 billion. Resistance is eyed at 134.0, 13=
4.45 and 134.85. Support holds at 133.20, 133.0 and 132.50.  EUR/USD is tra=
ding just below 87 cents as the euro failed to profit on stronger than expe=
cted Italian ISAE Consumer Confidence Survey which gained 1.6 points to 126=
, showing that customers felt the most optimistic in 12 years since unemplo=
yment has been falling. Market participants believe that Euroarea consumpti=
on will have to replace weak business spending in order to avoid a recessio=
n in the Eurozone. The ISAE commented that consumers were "more positive ab=
out the near-term prospects for the economy", adding that they did not anti=
cipate significant inflationary pressures. Support is viewed at 86.80, 86.4=
5/50 and 86.10. Resistance is seen at 87.85, 88.10 and the 200-day moving a=
verage at 88.5  Cable fell after Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committe=
e meeting minutes showed that two of the nine members voted in favor of a 2=
5-bp rate cut. Markets wait for tomorrow's release of UK retail sales that =
are expected to edge up 0.6% m/m or 5.8% y/y in January. The pound could re=
new its climb should the data show strong levels of consumption that would =
induce the central bank to raise interest rates. Support stands at 1.4225, =
1.420 and 1.4150. Upside capped at 1.4340, 1.4365 and 1.440.  Markets will =
first assess tomorrow's US international trade balance, which is expected t=
o widen to  28.3 billion in December from the previous deficit of  27.8 bil=
lion as sluggish global demand takes its toll on US exports.Then traders wi=
ll look at tomorrow morning's release of the Index of Leading Indicators th=
at is forecasted to post a more moderate gain to 0.5% in January from the p=
revious increase of 1.2% due to improvements in jobless claims and in the I=
SM manufacturing survey.    This week's other key US indicators consist of =
jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey and the Federal budget. Eurozone hi=
ghlights include German CPI, Italian industrial orders, Euroarea balance of=
 payments, Euroarea foreign trade, French GDP, Italian CPI and Spanish CPI.=
 The last data release from the UK this week is the CBI Industrial Trends s=
urvey. The remaining economic indicator from Japan is the index of tertiary=
 sector activity.    =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Yen Tumble Drives up EU=
R/USD       Articles & Ideas  Off Goes the Franc, On Comes Jospin   JPY: Ja=
pan's Reform Dilemma       Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary   Economic Indic=
ators   Forex Guides   Link Library      [IMAGE] =09
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