Message-ID: <16142050.1075861043715.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 16:06:15 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre= view February 25, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8693 $/JPY..133.83 GBP/$..1.4253 $/CHF= ..1.6972 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. = The yen retained the upper hand against the dollar around 133.80, boosted = by Japan's trade surplus that came in above 118 billion yen in January, whe= reas its surplus with the US rose for the first time in 10 months by 14.9% = y/y to 524.8 bln yen. The latest data is to suggest that increasing US dema= nd and weaker yen levels could benefit Japanese exports. In addition, Japan= ese currency found strength as a result of repatriation flows before the fi= scal year ends in March. Latest report show that anti deflationary package = due on Wednesday will be a two part plan: the government will provide for m= easures to stabilize stock market and ask the BoJ for more easing. The seco= nd more important part of the plan will likely be revealed at the end of Ma= rch and will outline tax changes and tackling the bad loans debt. Thursday = meeting of the BoJ is not likely to produce any rate cut although that ques= tion remains open. If the central bank does not ease monetary policy, the y= en could weaken as traders express their disappointment by unloading the cu= rrency. However, if the BoJ does inject liquidity by raising its purchases = of government bonds, the yen is also likely to weaken. Markets will scrutin= ize news conferences from Financial Minister Shiokawa, Economic Minister Ta= kenaka and Financial Services Minister Yanagisawa. Japan's Fin Services Min= ister Yanagisawa was not considering new steps on bad loans in anti-deflati= on package. Yanagisawa explained that he had not received report on Bank re= port steps for Daiei According to a telephone survey released Monday by Tok= yo's TV 12 the support rate for the cabinet of PM Koizumi fell to 48.4%, th= e first time it has fallen below 50% since it took office last April. The a= pproval rating now stands below the 55.6% the cabinet received in the previ= ous survey conducted in late January, immediately after Koizumi fired Forei= gn Minister Tanaka. Support holds at 133.20, 133.0 and 132.50. Upside cappe= d at 134.0, 134.40 and 134.90. EUR/USD is trading around just below 87 ce= nts weighed by an unofficially released German jobless count for February s= howing a 30,000 rise to 4.32 mln, along with the news that Germany's cartel= office blocked Deutsche Telekom's planned sale of its cable assets to US m= edia group Liberty Media in a deal worth $4.81 billion. Investors are undou= btedly concerned about funneling their assets into a highly regulated Europ= ean region. In mid-morning, the euro's slide was temporarily reversed as ma= rkets reacted to a fall in Germany preliminary CPI to 0.3% m/m from 0.9% or= to 1.7% y/y from the previous 2.1%. German preliminary harmonised CPI also= dipped to 0.3% m/m from the previous 1.0%, or to 1.9% y/y from the previou= s 2.3%. The Statistics office cited drops in heating oil and fuel prices as= the primary reasons behind February's fall in inflation, which sparked hop= e that the European Central Bank would be able to lower interest rates.None= theless, the single currency was unable to find comfort in European Central= Bank president Duisenberg's optimism that the world economy would rebound = modestly, and that the Eurozone would grow close to its long-term trend bet= ween 2-2.5% by the end of the year. Markets now await tomorrow's release of= the German Ifo business sentiment survey that is forecasted to rise to 87.= 3 in February from the previous 86.3, reflecting the improvement seen in th= e ZEW sentiment survey. Support is seen at 86.80, 86.45/50 and 86.10. Resis= tance is viewed at 87.85, 88.10 and the 200-day moving average at 88.50. T= omorrow morning's release of the US Conference Board consumer confidence in= dex is forecasted to slip to 96.8 in February from the previous 97.3, mirro= ring the decline in the University of Michigan survey. However, some analys= ts anticipate the index will edge up slightly because the U. Michigan surve= y places more weight on stock prices, which have fallen recently on account= ing concerns. This week's other key US indicators include durable goods, ne= w home sales, jobless claims, GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, perso= nal income and consumption, University of Michigan confidence survey, ISM (= formerly NAPM) PMI. In the midst of all the economic releases, markets will= be carefully listening to Fed Chairman Greenspan's semi-annual monetary po= licy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday f= or any hint that the central bank may begin to raise interest rates sometim= e this year. Major data due for release from the Eurozone comprise the Ge= rman Ifo business climate indicator, French CPI, Italian foreign trade, Eur= oarea M3, German GDP, French INSEE industry survey, French PPI, Italian ret= ail sales, Belgian CPI, Euroarea HICP, German PPI, French unemployment, Ita= ly's ISAE industrial confidence survey, Italian PPI, Euroarea manufacturing= PMI, Euroarea retail sales, German manufacturing PMI, French manufacturing= PMI, France's INSEE household survey, Italian manufacturing PMI, Italian C= PI, Italian GDP, and Spanish unemployment. Highlights from the UK are GDP, = Gfk consumer confidence, nationwide house price index and the manufacturing= Puchasing Managers survey. Major data releases from Japan are commercial s= ales, industrial production, Shoko Chukin small firm survey, housing starts= , consumer prices, household survey of expenditures and the labor force sur= vey. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Rally in USD, Stocks Weigh on Europe= an FX Articles & Ideas Will Greenspan & Data Overcome Enronitis? O= ff Goes the Franc, On Comes Jospin Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary = Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . 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