Message-ID: <19235676.1075861044485.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2002 05:03:10 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: US Trading Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] JPY Up On Repatriation Flo= ws, USD Awaits Manufacturing ISM March 1, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8675 $/JPY..13= 3.15 GBP/$..1.4206 $/CHF..1.7009 JPY Up On Repatriation Flows, USD Awaits = Manufacturing ISM by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM US Jan Personal Consumption (= exp 0.2%, prev -0.2%) US Jan Personal Income (exp 0.1%, prev 0.4%) At 9:45:= 00 AM US Feb U. of Michigan Sent. Final (exp 91.5, prev 93) At 10:00:00 AM = US Feb ISM (formelrly NAPM) (exp 50.6, prev 49.9) US Jan Construction Spend= ing (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%) The dollar fell back to one-week lows against th= e yen but remained rangebound against the European majors in Friday morning= trading ahead of key US data. Upbeat manufacturing figures from the Eurozo= ne failed to lift the single currency, but a surge in UK PMI pushed sterlin= g higher across the board. Meanwhile, repatriation fears kept the yen from = falling, but this seasonal advantage should give way to further weakness in= the weeks ahead. Today's data from the US is expected to show manufactur= ing expanded in February for the first time in over 1-1/2 years. The Instit= ute for Supply Management's (ISM) closely watched headline index is forecas= t to rise above the 50-mark, indicating expansion and would add to yesterda= y's upbeat revision to Q4 GDP which overshot forecasts as it surged to 1.4%= q/q from the previous 0.2%, posting its largest gain since Q4 '00. Trader= s feel that at some point the good US economic data should push EUR/USD bel= ow 86 cents to test previous 6-month low of 85.63. But despite the upbeat f= orecasts, Enronitis and stock market valuations could keep the dollar under= wraps. Also to be released today is the final reading of February U. Mic= h sentiment which is expected to rise from the preliminary release of 90.9 = to 91.2, but remain below January's 93.0. US income and expenditure growth = is expected to continue in January, but at a slower pace. EUR/USD held ste= ady around 86.80 after Eurozone PMI rose to 48.6 in February, more than the= anticipated 47.2 and above a revised 46.3 in January. The data shows an ec= onomic recovery is still on the way. However, more hefty gains will be need= ed to drive the figure above the key 50 mark. In contrast, traders expect t= o see the US ISM (NAPM) rise today to 50.6 in February from 49.9, putting i= t back into expansion. Sentiment is mixed however and only a move through 8= 6.30/15 on its way to 85.63 low would put the euro back in full bear mode. = Support is seen at 86.30, 86.15, and 85.60. Resistance is viewed at 86.60, = 87.10, and 87.85. Other data showed French consumer confidence took a step= backwards in February to minus 15 from minus 12, ending four consecutive m= onths of gains. However, the EUR/USD stayed steady around a day's low of 86= .67 after the news. Dealers do not see it as a sign of reversal in the impr= oving trend. Recall that US Conference Board Consumer Confidence tumbled to= 94.1 in February from the previous revised 97.8, below forecasts calling f= or a decline to 96.8. GBP/USD added to Friday's recovery from an overnigh= t 3-week low of 1.4110 and reached a high of 1.4218 after UK February manuf= acturing PMI unexpectedly rose above the 50-mark indicating manufacturing h= as recovered from yearlong contraction. However, sterling is likely to rema= in weakened by EMU expectations and the fact that BoE Governor George again= tried to talk down the currency since sterling strength exacerbates the im= balances the central bank would like to correct. The bank feels a downward = correction would help the BoE do its job to get the economy on one track ag= ain. The pound is also likely to remain pressured by selling from traders = who had expected that the UK would soon begin to tighten monetary policy, t= hereby making rates more favorable there than elsewhere among the G7 nation= s. But it now appears GBP will not benefit from higher interest rates since= George clarified that people "should be careful how much weight they put o= n the steepness of this curve", referring to short sterling rate futures. G= BP/USD resistance seen at 1.4240. Support at 1.4180. Sterling also rises to= day's high of 61.07 pence vs. Euro, thereby not allowing EUR/USD to gain. = USD/JPY encountered further weakness as pressure builds ahead of year end = book closings on March 31. Dealers now say that another wave of repatriatio= n could be in store as investors fear a credit crunch at the end of March 3= 1 FY-book closing. Japanese repatriation flows in January brought an enormo= us 3.3 trillion yen back home. This was a major reason the yen was able to = fend off further losses. But with repatriation poised to slow near the end = of March and net outward investment to resume thereafter dealers expect to = see further yen weakness in the weeks to come allowing USD/JPY to target 14= 0 once the 135.00/20 major resistance band is broken. Upside capped at 133.= 70, 134.00/10, 134.70/85 and strong resistance at 135.15. Support holds at = 133.50, 133.20, 133.0 and 132.50. Also giving yen support were comments fr= om Japanese Economics Minister Takenaka that it may be necessary to conside= r taking more steps to further stabilize Japan's financial system before th= e end of the fiscal year. Takenaka specified that it would intermittently t= ake steps if needed in the run up to the end of the current fiscal year on = March 31. However, he did not commit to the injecting of public funds into = major commercial banks to help them deal with the massive bad loans on thei= r books. This is seen as a necessary step for Japan to move ahead with refo= rms. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis USD Slips Despite GDP Overshoot = Articles & Ideas JPY: Koizumi Fails To Deliver Goodbye Hope, Sayonara Ye= n Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guide= s Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. 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