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Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2002 16:05:44 -0800 (PST)
From: info@forexnews.com
To: sara.shackleton@enron.com
Subject: Japanese Preview
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[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T=
echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek=
Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's =
Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view March 7, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8812 $/JPY..127.70 GBP/$..1.4260 $/CHF..1.=
6697 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 6:50:00 PM Japan=
Q4 GDP q/q prel. (exp -1%, prev -2.1%) Japan Feb Domestic WPI y/y (exp -1.=
4%, prev -1.4%) Feb Overall WPI y/y (exp -0.1%, prev -0.6%) Private Consump=
tion (exp 2.5%, prev -6.7%) Feb M2+CD y/y (exp 3.5%, prev 3.6%) Japan Feb =
M2+CD m/m (exp 5%, prev 7%) The yen rose to its highest levels since Octob=
er 1998 vs. the dollar as the surge in Nikkei boosted demand for the curren=
cy. The yen rose more than 3% to 126.40 before falling to the current level=
s of 127.70. The Japanese currency has gained 5.7% since the end of January=
. Japan Oct-Dec GDP fell real 1.2% q/q (worse than expectations of a 0.9% c=
ontraction) showing economy shrank for the 3rd consecutive quarter. Japan O=
ct-Dec real GDP down annualized 4.5% Japan Feb M2+CD money supply up 3.7% y=
/y Dec nominal GDP down 1.2% q/q Oct-Dec private sector consumption up 1.9%=
q/q Oct-Dec housing investment down 0.2% q/q Oct-Dec private capex down 12=
% q/q Feb domestic WPI up 0.1% m/m Oct Dec public investment down 2% q/q Ja=
pan Oct-Dec GDP deflator down 1.2% y/y Feb domestic WPI down 1.3% y/y Oct-D=
ec external demand GDP contribution -0.1% domestic -1%. Current account sur=
plus 2.9% of GDP in Oct-Dec Japan says govt 1% FY GDP forecast needs outcom=
e of +1.6% in Jan-March Japan says calendar 2001 GDP down real 0.5% y/y Rec=
ent changes in the law concerning the short-selling of stocks, as well as i=
ncreasing confidence of a US-led global economic recovery spurred the re-al=
location of assets from the US to Japan and other markets. In addition, rum=
ors that the Bank of Japan was in the market also fueled the currency's ris=
e, in spite of warnings from the MoF's Kuroda and Muto that Japan would be =
monitoring for speculative and excessive moves. There is a possibility that=
MoF could warn of possible intervention if the yen continues to strengthen=
. Foreigners bought a net 114-bln yen in Japanese shares last week, the big=
gest amount in seven weeks. The currency also strengthened due to repatriat=
ion talks ahead of March 31, the end of fiscal year in Japan. For the past =
five weeks, Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign securities.=
Japan's January index of leading economic indicators in January stood at 7=
5.0, above the 50 mark, assuming the economy may hit bottom and improve in =
coming months. The lagging indicator for January came in at 16.7, while the=
coincident indicator was 33.3.Rating agency Fitch IBCA said Japan's near-t=
erm sovereign risks are small for government bonds and other debt securitie=
s issued or guaranteed by the government. The firm currently rates Japanese=
long-term bonds double A. But Fitch remains bearish, saying Japan's massiv=
e fiscal deficit remains on an "unsustainable medium-term path." PM Koizumi=
promised on Thursday to take all required steps to revive Japan's sagging =
economy, but added there are no ''quick fixes.'' ''There is no change in my=
policy that the economy will not recover without reform and to promote str=
uctural reforms,'' Koizumi said. Resistance seen at 128 and 128.50. Support=
at 127 and at the 200-day moving average of 125.0. EUR/USD is trading aro=
und 88.10 after reaching a 1-1/2 month high of 88.39 cents, shrugging off t=
he European Central Bank's decision this morning to keep rates steady at 3.=
25%. Markets had anticipated the central bank would take no action due to g=
rowing signs of Eurozone economic recovery and rising inflationary pressure=
s. ECB President Duisenberg repeated that he expects inflation to fall belo=
w 2% "in the course of the coming months", helped by falling producer price=
s that will be reflected in CPI, and by moderation in M3 components. Noneth=
eless, he warned that for inflation to stay below its limit would depend on=
wage moderation, which is crucial to growth in jobs and stable prices. EUR=
/USD faces resistance at its 200-day moving average of 88.50. Next upward t=
arget is seen at 89.0 and 89.40. Support is viewed at 87.40, backed by 87.0=
and 86.65. The pound gained a cent to peak at a 1-1/2 week high of 1.4313=
against the dollar, after dropping to a 2-session low of 1.4184 cents in r=
eaction to the Bank of England's expected decision to keep rates unchanged =
at 4.0% this morning. On its part, the IMF recommended the Bank of England =
should be ready to adjust monetary policy in either direction, noting the n=
eed to monitor escalating home prices and consumer debt. The IMF forecasted=
UK growth in 2002 at 1.8%, noting the slowdown would be brief but subject =
to risks. Next key upward target is seen at the 200-day moving average of 1=
.4333, followed by 1.4370 and 1.440. Support holds at 1.420, 1.4170 and 1.4=
130. In his testimony to the House of Representative, Greenspan altered hi=
s speech slightly as he stated that the US economic expansion is "well unde=
rway and that an array of influences unique to the current cycle are likel=
y to moderate their pace. He indicated encouraging signs that demand trends=
are strengthening but the size of the pickup is uncertain, especially sinc=
e business investment elsewhere, including aircraft, will most likely remai=
n weak. Thus he commented that a US recovery almost certainly would not mat=
ch the average growth of past recessions, which have typically averaged aro=
und 7%. Tomorrow's release of the key US employment labor report is expect=
ed to show the creation of 5K to 10K in non-farm payrolls, though some priv=
ate forecasts expect the creation of 100K. The unemployment rate is expecte=
d to rise to 5.8% from 5.6%, while average hourly earnings are seen up 0.3%=
from 0.0%.Key Eurozone indicators include Italian GDP and Dutch CPI. Highl=
ights from Japan comprise GDP, money supply and wholesale prices. =09[IM=
AGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Yen Soars 3.5% vs USD Articles & Ideas Yen'=
s March Madness Will Dollar be Fuelled against the Euro? Articles &=
Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library =
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