Message-ID: <31644638.1075861046324.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 04:53:06 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: US Trading Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] JPY Cools on Jawboning, Be= wildered USD Awaits Data March 8, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8783 $/JPY..128.15 GBP= /$..1.4253 $/CHF..1.6728 JPY Cools on Jawboning, Bewildered USD Awaits Dat= a by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM US Feb Payroll Employment (exp 9k, prev -89k)= US Feb Unemployment (exp 5.7%, prev 5.6%) US Feb Avg Hourly Earnings (exp = 0.3%, prev 0%) US Feb Avg Work Week (exp 34.2%, prev 34%) The dollar recov= ered to back above 128 yen after Thursday's record four-yen decline and reb= ounded one half cent against the euro from an overnight 6-week low of 88.40= . Further gains in the Nikkei today had little effect on the yen and trade = was subdued ahead of key US jobs data due at 8:30 AM. Japanese official, = Kuroda, said the Finance Ministry would take action against rapid currency = fluctuations. This helped the dollar come off recent lows. However, it lack= ed urgency as BoJ Governor Hayami said he was not worried about current FX = levels. Instead, Hayami gave credit to the recent move as part of the BoJ's= monetary policy easing last week. Dealers also suspected the government's = top priority is to keep stocks strong ahead of fiscal year-end bookclosings= as dealing with a financial crisis would be worse than the effects of a st= ronger yen. USD/JPY is now supported at 127.75, which marks the 38.2% ret= racement of the 115.75-135.15 move provided a solid base for a corrective r= ally in the pair. However, speculators who had been on the sidelines have p= oured in to go long the yen. Therefore, USD/JPY could still target 125.28, = the 50% retracement of the same move. More importantly, the yen is approach= ing its 200-day moving average of 125 for the first time since November. M= eanwhile, the government's resolve to boost Japanese assets ahead of March = 31 is likely to fend off any negative news that comes its way. Case in poin= t was today's 2% rise in the Nikkei despite Japan's Q4 GDP which fell 1.2% = q/q and was the first time in nearly a decade that output had fallen three = quarters in a row. The figure attracted little attention and instead, talk = of a global recovery has sparked a wave of foreign money coming into Japan = as large American banks have announced their repositioning in favor of Japa= nese shares. Japanese banks are pinning their hopes on the stock market ho= lding onto recent gains, at least until the end of the fiscal year end on M= arch 31, when they book their massive stockholdings at market value. If pla= yers can hold the Nikkei at 12,000, banks could slash latent stock losses b= y trillions of yen, help improve their capital adequacy ratios and keep the= m solvent. However, this would still not solve their fundamental proble= ms. Therefore, there still remains doubt as to whether the Nikkei can maint= ain its recent gains after the March 31 fiscal year end and whether the spe= ctacular rise in yen on speculative trading will come undone over the next = few weeks. BoJ Governor Hayami alluded to this today when he said he expect= ed the market to be stable through the end of March, but did not say what c= ould happen afterwards. USD/JPY fell nearly 5% this week alone, while EUR/= JPY fell only 3%. This gap has been filled by the 2 cent rise in EUR/USD an= d supports the notion that rise in the yen is strictly a Japan-driven play = rather than a global growth-driven play. The enforcement of anti-short-sell= ing laws in Japan and the rebound in the Nikkei enhances the yen repatriati= on play. EUR/USD fell to a day's low of 87.80 as it retreated from an over= night high of 88.40. On Thursday, the market ignored the European Central B= ank's decision to keep rates steady at 3.25%. Markets had anticipated the c= entral bank would take no action due to growing signs of Eurozone economic = recovery and rising inflationary pressures. But despite the recent rise in = EUR/USD, the dollar's weakness is primarily contained to the yen. Neverthel= ess, the euro is still threatening to take out 88.10 cents, which is the 50= % retracement of this year's move 90.63 to 85.63. From there, the euro face= s its next resistance at 88.50. Support is viewed at 87.0, backed by 86.65 = and 86.30. The pound was also steady against the dollar around 1.4250 afte= r whipsawing between a 1-1/2 week high of 1.4313 against the dollar, and a = 2-session low of 1.4184 cents. Resistance is still seen at 1.4300 and the 2= 00-day moving average of 1.4333, followed by 1.4370 and 1.440. Support hold= s at 1.420, 1.4170 and 1.4130. Traders will watch today's US labor report = for signs that the recession is taking less of a toll on the workers. The l= abor market is expected to begin a service production recovery while manufa= cturing payrolls will continue to contract. US employment labor report is e= xpected to show the creation of 5K to 10K in non-farm payrolls, though some= private forecasts expect the creation of 100K. The unemployment rate is ex= pected to rise to 5.8% from 5.6%, while average hourly earnings are seen up= 0.3% from 0.0%. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Yen Soars 3.5% vs USD = Articles & Ideas Yen's March Madness Will Dollar be Fuelled against th= e Euro? Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex= Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09