Message-ID: <31226794.1075861046707.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2002 16:13:09 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: <info@forexnews.com>@ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=SSHACKL> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Sara_Shackleton_Mar2002\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: sshackl (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre= view March 11, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8758 $/JPY..128.10 GBP/$..1.4196 $/CHF..1= .6792 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. As = repatriation continues ahead of March 31, the end of fiscal year in Japan, = the yen continues to show resilience vs. the dollar, hovering around 128 le= vels, despite verbal intervention from officials to step in the forex marke= t to stem the currency's strength and continued dismal economic data. Besid= e repatriation Japanese currency got support from another rally in the Nikk= ei-225 Index, which closed at 11919, its highest level in 7 months. The in= dex is now up 13% on the year thanks to government regulation to boost dome= stic equities. These measures include encouraging companies to buy back the= ir stocks and enforcing rules against short-selling, whereby brokers cannot= short stocks (sell them with the intention of buying them back at a lower = price) when the last price move was a down move (downtick). Credit rating a= gency Moody's made placed a temporary damper on yen sentiment, when it down= graded the insurance strength ratings of 8 Japanese life insurers to a nega= tive outlook. Moody's stated a weakening economy, grim outlook for a quick = recovery and uncertain prospects for additional external support as the rat= ionale for its action. Markets will eye announcement from the government o= f asset allocation plans from a pension plan which could sign a rise in for= eign bond investment. Japanese banks turned net sellers of Japanese govern= ment bonds for the first time in five years in 2001 due to stock market dec= line and the introduction of fair value accounting standards. Analysts esti= mate that if the tendency continues long-term interest rates could express = upward pressures, putting a further haul on the economy. January core machi= nery orders fell to15.6% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted b= asis, the biggest drop in 15 years due to lower orders from both manufactur= ers and non-manufacturers. The diffusion index of the Economy Watchers Surv= ey, which measures the opinions of people concerning the present state of t= he Japanese economy weigh against with three months earlier, rose 1.2 point= s from January to 33.1.It is possible that Japanese officials will step up= their interventionist rhetoric near the 126 level so as to build a floor a= t the psychologically and technically important level of 125. Technically, = 125.45 is the 50% retracement of the drop from this year's high of 135.15 t= o the September low of 115.75. 125.10 follows at the-200 day moving average= . Resistance starts at 129.50 followed by major pressure point at 130.65. = EUR/USD is trading around 87.55 after German based IWH Institute today rai= sed Germany's 2002 growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.6%. The Eurozone Q4 GDP = numbers will finally be released tomorrow at 5 AM, expected to show a 0.7% = decline from a 0.5% increase in Q3. This would translate into an annual gro= wth of 1.5% for 2001, compared to 1.2% in the US. At 2 AM, German inflatio= n figures for February are expected to show a 1.9% rise y/y from 2.3% in Ja= nuary. Yet, it's unlikely that the figures will prompt much change in the s= hrinking range of the EUR/USD. Initial support seen at 87.25 backed by 87.0= 0 and 86.75-70. 86.20-25 is the next major support, which lies on the trend= line support line extending from the 83.50 low thru the 85.63 low. Initial= upside capped at 87.60 followed by substantial pressure at 88.10--the 50% = retracement of the 90.63 high thru the 85.63 low. Next major resistance see= n at the 200-day MA of 88.50 followed by 88.70-80 which is presented by (i)= the 61.8% retracement of the aforementioned move and (ii) the trendline re= sistance which extends from the 93.35 high thru the 90.63 high. Oil prices= stabilized after nearing last week's 6-month highs earlier today, followin= g heightened fears of US military attack against Iraq. A statement from Ir= aq today saying UN weapon inspectors would not be allowed to return fuelled= tensions and fears of a US attack to force compliance. Meanwhile, OPEC sai= d it would extend its supply cuts into June and would explore the possibili= ty of keeping the output curbs in the second half of the year. April Brent = crude oil rose as high as $23.64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate = touched $24.40 per barrel. This week, markets should expect further good = news from the US as they witness the release of the Feb retail sales report= on Wednesday and the Feb industrial production figures on Friday. Retail s= ales are expected to have jumped by 0.9% after a 0.2% decline in January wh= ile industrial production is expected to post its first increase since risi= ng 0.2% in September 2000. Another reason to upward revisions to US growth = forecasts in the first half of 2002 is last week's signing of the fiscal st= imulus in Congress. Both parties finally agreed to launch a $51 billion pac= kage, which includes the extension of jobless benefits to an additional 13 = weeks (worth $8.5 billion), thereby extending relief to most workers whose = 6-month jobless insurance will expire this month after having lost their jo= bs after the September 11 attacks. The package also includes corporate tax = breaks of as much as 30% for companies with large capital budgets. The bill= is expected to boost corporate profits and lift GDP growth by about 0.5%. = =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Dollar Drifts in Quiet Trading Arti= cles & Ideas Yen's March Madness Will Dollar be Fuelled against the Euro= ? Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guide= s Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. 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