Message-ID: <1206965.1075863191516.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 16:21:06 -0800 (PST) From: info@forexnews.com To: sara.shackleton@enron.com Subject: Japanese Preview Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: @ENRON X-To: Shackleton, Sara X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \SSHACKL (Non-Privileged)\Shackleton, Sara\Deleted Items X-Origin: Shackleton-S X-FileName: SSHACKL (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 2.0% 0.15% 3.2= 5% 4.0% 1.75-2.75% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Prev= iew November 19, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8733 $/JPY..123.07 GBP/$..1.4125 $/CHF.= .1.6577 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. T= he dollar advanced to three-month highs vs. the euro, yen, and the pound am= id rally in US stocks that signal rebound in the economy and optimism about= the anti-terrorist war in Afghanistan. The dollar rose to 123.50 yen, its = highest level since August 9 as Japanese currency weakened after the Bank o= f Japan downgraded its assessment of the economy for the sixth straight mon= th in its November, due to deteriorating consumption, corporate profit, cap= ital spending, employment and income. Thus the BOJ affirmed that "the adjus= tment is becoming more severe", and many economists already expect July-Sep= tember GDP to confirm the Japanese economy is in a recession. PM Koizumi de= cided to draw up second supplementary budget for the fiscal 2001 totaling m= ore than 2 trln yen. The second supplementary budget is aimed to boost the = ailing economy. Last week Parliament enacted a 3 trln yen budget to increas= e employment but Koizumi thought that the measure is not enough, as the eco= nomy continues to deteriorate. The Ministry of Finance projected that FY02 = tax revenue will probably be revised down by Y2.8 trln from Y49.6 trln, thu= s making it difficult to abide by the 30 trillion yen JGB cap pledged by Pr= ime Minister Koizumi. Index rebalancing by Morgan Stanley (global equities)= and JP Morgan (global bonds) are both yen negative which could further hur= t the yen to levels above 124 in near future. PM Koizumi's reform plan for = highway construction projects triggered opposition from some members of lea= ding LDP party. The issue is sensitive because road construction projects h= ave been on of methods for lawmakers to win votes. If Kouzimi stays determi= ned to reform highway projects about 40% of all projects may have to be cut= . Initial resistance is seen at 123.50, followed by 123.70 and 124.0. Sup= port stands at 123.0, 122.60 and 122.15. The euro is trading around 87.84= holding above its fresh 3-month low of 87.67after the Bundesbank's month= ly report for November noted German growth was flat in both Q3 and Q2, as m= any economists foresee a contraction in Q4 because of declining confidence = and weak manufacturing. Markets are anxious about Wednesday's German Ifo Bu= siness climate index that estimates German growth, which accounts for about= one-third of the total Eurozone. Economists forecast the Ifo will remain u= nchanged at 85 in November after plunging to that level in October from 89.= 5. Disappointing results will most likely spark renewed selling in the euro= . The euro got a brief support from the ECB's Chief Economist Issing who le= ft the door open for future rate cuts by saying there is a good reason to e= xpect Eurozone inflation in 2002 to fall below 2%. His colleague at the Eur= opean Central Bank Ernest Welteke cheerfully pronounced that the ECB does n= ot see a Eurozone recession in 2001 but rather growth both this year and ne= xt.Eurozone Industrial production will likely decline to -1.2% m/m in Septe= mber from the previous 1.1% or to -1.4% y/y vs. the previous 0.4%. Support = is seen at 87.50, 87.20 and 86.80. Upside capped at 88.05, 88.30 and 88.55.= Wednesday's release of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee m= eeting minutes for the explanation behind the rate cut enacted on November = 8, and also for any hints about future decisions. Another significant piece= of economic data that is likely to impact the pound's direction is the sec= ond release of the UK's GDP for Q3. Support is viewed at 1.410, 1.4075 and = 1.4050. Upside capped at 1.4230, 1.4265 and 1.430. Data due tomorrow from = the US include the September trade balance and the index of Leading Indicat= ors. Economists forecast the trade balance will improve to 24.7 billion in= September from the previous 27.1 billion, with some estimates indicating = an improvement to as much as 15.0 billion as both exports and import level= s dropped sharply after the September 11 attacks. Additionally, economists = attribute the narrowing trade deficit to the WTC-related reinsurance paymen= ts that ebbed as premiums flowed. In a tentative sign of improvement in the= US economy, the Index of Leading Indicators is anticipated to rebound in O= ctober to positive territory to 0.1% from the previous 0.5%, after posting= back-to-back drops. This week's other key US indicators consist of jobless= claims and the University of Michigan Confidence survey. =09[IMAGE] Aud= io Mkt. Analysis USD Hits Fresh Multi-month highs vs EUR, JPY, GBP Ar= ticles & Ideas USD/JPY: The Next Level OPEC: The beginning of a price wa= r? Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guid= es Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . =09