Subject: Oil Fundamentals- Choke Points
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2001 15:50:17 -0700 (PDT)

Eric/ Clay:
Here is a list of items we feel are the major determinants of oil price moves. Please add your two cents. Following your input, I think we need to classify each as to whether they affect the price,daily, weekly or over the long-term.
JF

1.0 Basic Economic Indicators:

GDP, IP (EU, AP, NA)
Transportation indices ( EGM fundy publishes a weekly trucking/rail/freight economic series- we are also trying to determine a diesel index based on freight capacity)

2.0 Refinery Indicators

Cracks ( EGM post a daily analysis of cracks region by region and by crude type- from 2:1:1 to 7:4:3
Marketing Margins (secondary indicator)
Refinery Maintenance ( We suscribe to ISIs-LOR-and publish a summary of the programs their effects on crude--i.e. how much is disaplced)
Refinery Outage (EGM fundy produces a daily global analysis)

3.0 Crude Oil

OPEC
Geo-Political Events in the Middle East, Africa
Non-OPEC Production
Iraq
US Crude Runs
US imports
PADD II Storage Levels
Freight Rates
Brent Loading Programs
Crude Differentials (WTI vs Brent, vs WAFR, ME crudes, Hi-Lo sulfur spreads (impacts refinery output)

4.0 Regulations

Auto  Oil II (EC Spec changes to HU and HO)
EPA Phase on HU and HO re sulfur specs
PUC utility rules mandate all utilities with IT (NG) must back up with disl or resid and prove they have sufficient supply ahead of the winter season in US NE

5.0 Heating Oil

Inter-geography arbs
Storage levels, especially PADD I
New cogens (Demand for low sulfur HO)
BTU equilibrium with natural gas (can add or subtract 500Kb/d of demand) (EGm publishes a btu report)
Weather- EGM has a HDD demand model for US and are developing one for UK/EC)

P/L and Jones Act issues for Transportation

6.0 Gasoline

Inter-geography arbs
Conventional vs RFG
HO vs HU
Boutique HU- 52 kinds of FRG
P/L and Jones Act issues for Transportation Butane and MTBE costs (Need to track NGL FRAC spread/ NG feestock costs)

7.0 Residual Fuel

BTU equilibrium with natural gas (can add or subtract 800Kb/d of demand) (EGM publishes a btu report and has a switching model)
Utility storage and buying patterns
Weather : we have the HDD analysis

8.0 Petroleum Statistics:

API/DOE
EIA
IEA