Message-ID: <10720611.1075858711301.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 7 Aug 2001 13:06:26 -0700 (PDT) From: aleck.dadson@enron.com To: richard.shapiro@enron.com Subject: RE: Ontario Market Opening - CONFIDENTIAL Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Dadson, Aleck X-To: Shapiro, Richard X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \RSHAPIRO (Non-Privileged)\Shapiro, Richard\canada X-Origin: Shapiro-R X-FileName: RSHAPIRO (Non-Privileged).pst Rick, here are my comments: There was never any alternative on the table but to align ourselves with the IMO/OEB Market Readiness Plan. It was never going to be possible to open the market without sufficient technical readiness on the part of the central institutions in the market - the IMO and the distributors. We could not reasonably expect the Government to open the market if the primary regulator - i.e. the OEB - was saying that the distributors were not ready. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming. We were instrumental in getting the OEB to adopt the "aggressive" timetable that they did. The distributors see us as being the main party pushing for tighter timelines etc. (And don't like us for it). There was little we could do (subject to what I say several bullets below) to effect readiness other than pushing for the OEB to enforce timelines. Contrary to what Rob says, at no time was it our position that it was highly likely that the OEB report would be positive. See the bottom of the first page of our briefing note for Lavorato and Lay (attached) where we express uncertainty regarding distributor readiness. Certainly our public position on readiness was upbeat - precisely so we could press our other positions re pricing, Pickering, etc. Those arguments would have been irrelevant if there was no prospect of sufficient technical readiness. Our whole objective since April has been to keep November 2001 alive as prospect - so long as there was sufficient technical readiness (a factor over which we had little control). Just so you know,several months ago, I raised the possibility of pushing for a split wholesale/retail opening and was told not to do so - because of the adverse commercial implications re the British Energy contract renegotiation. . In any event, I think sticking with a single market opening is the correct approach - because it puts the stronger institution - the IMO - in the position of having a strong interest in pushing/pulling the weaker one - the OEB - along. Just so you know, several months ago, I raised the possibility of Enron Canada investing more resources in developing or securing from otherssuppliers CIS systems etc. that could be made available to the distributors to get them ready. This was dismissed. My expectation for several weeks (prior to the OEB report) was that the report would involve some delay (length uncertain) in retail market readiness. Paul and others were advised. My understanding is that the IMO and IMO Board of Directors were informed of the OEB report the day or two before it was issued. Milnthorp made it clear to me that he was afraid of telling Lavorato and left it to me to do so (via the material for Harris). I our conversation, Milly blamed the Chair of the IMO Board for caving in. He never expressed the views set forth in his memo to you. Also, it is worth noting that the OEB report took the government - both the Ministry and the Premier's Office - by complete surprise. Having said all this, I have to say that Paul has been fully supportive and nothing herein should be read as a criticism of him. -----Original Message----- From: Shapiro, Richard Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2001 2:30 PM To: Dadson, Aleck Subject: FW: Ontario Market Opening -----Original Message----- From: Milnthorp, Rob Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2001 11:45 AM To: Shapiro, Richard Subject: Ontario Market Opening Rick, as you are likely aware, Ontario market opening has once again been pushed back with March 2002 likely the earliest possible start. From a strategic standpoint, you will recall that we decided to align our interests with the outcome of the OEB/IMO readiness report due out in September. Our regulatory position was that it was highly likely that the outcome of this report would be positive and by supporting this initiative it would push the government to immediately open the market (likely November 2001). In the interim however, the OEB has unilaterally deferred market opening to 2002 with the deferral of stage 2 of the self-certification process from August to December. In my mind, we actually gave credence to the OEB and to some extent gave them the mandate to defer market opening. Lets discuss when you have a moment. Regards Rob -----Original Message----- From: Lavorato, John Sent: Wednesday, August 01, 2001 1:01 PM To: Milnthorp, Rob Subject: On Alex or possible Paul. It seemed like we were way off base in predicting what would come out in the recent report re. readiness. Who missed this.