Message-ID: <24458678.1075840084116.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Wed, 31 May 2000 02:59:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: jeffrey.shankman@enron.com
To: rick.buy@enron.com
Subject: 
Cc: jeff.skilling@enron.com
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While we are continuing to work with Ted Murphy, etc, regarding component 
VAR, expiry phenomena, and the other issues that are crucially important to 
be able to effectively manage risk, (and prevent frequent violations), you 
should know this is the most important immediate issue we face.  Even with 
the IT constraints, which Beth Perlman has done a good job addressing for me, 
our organization is willing to do anything to help manage this process.  I 
have committed to Beth that will we help her find people with the ultimate 
goal or being able to run real time VAR calculations.  Rick's idea of 
allocating VAR in times like this would certainly be helpful (while we work 
to perfect our risk management capabilities), but is only a short term 
solution. 

On another note, I really believe we will see gas prices significantly higher 
this year, and have been working with Gary Hickerson to identify the best 
equity plays as well.  Is there a way to further capitalize on our view, that 
is, can Enron do anything structurally to capture more of this opportunity? 
This gas move might be one of those once in a 100 year environments. (Board 
permission, special vehicle, asset purchase, etc?)
 
Just as an FYI, even if all the ammonia and methane plants go down, the Nukes 
run at +95% capacity, and there are no events to interrupt supply, we think 
gas storage will end up at 2.55-2.6 Tcf at the end of the injection cycle.  

I'd appreciate any ideas.