Message-ID: <17680586.1075851830648.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 09:55:00 -0800 (PST)
From: tom.may@enron.com
To: lloyd.will@enron.com, robert.stalford@enron.com, gautam.gupta@enron.com, 
	mark.davis@enron.com, narsimha.misra@enron.com, 
	paul.broderick@enron.com, paul.thomas@enron.com, 
	robert.benson@enron.com, joe.quenet@enron.com, 
	jeffrey.miller@enron.com, larry.campbell@enron.com, 
	joe.stepenovitch@enron.com, richard.hrabal@enron.com
Subject: Re: HQ precipition
Cc: kevin.presto@enron.com
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FYI.  Here is Dave's view of the precipitation outlook for HQ.  Environment 
Canada is indicating a dry year.

Tom.
---------------------- Forwarded by Tom May/Corp/Enron on 02/05/2001 05:51 PM 
---------------------------


David Ryan
01/31/2001 12:51 PM
To: Tom May/Corp/Enron@Enron
cc:  

Subject: Re: HQ precipition  

First, I will say that this forecast is close to 2 months old already - and 
they will have a new one out March 1, I believe. 

It seems reading through some of their literature that they are basing this 
forecast on the assumption that we quickly come out of our weak/moderate La 
Nina in the Pacific and return to neutral conditions by the end of Spring - 
and weak to perhaps moderate El Nino conditions set up by the end of the 
year. 

From recent observations - this timing seems to be too quick. However, it is 
accepted by us and in the weather community that eventually a weak El Nino 
will develop. The timing may be for neutral conditions later in the summer 
and a weak El Nino by the end of the year. This is what we are favoring. So 
the effects may be for a neutral to slightly dry Summer and Fall in those 
areas, but we do not see anything significant. In fact in those regions, 
albeit a little drier than normal this winter, the snowpack has been 
established fairly nicely - so I would expect a fairly "normal" runoff period 
this Spring, as compared to last year when it was well below average. 

Bottom line - while certainly possible, recent conditions in the Pacific lead 
us to believe that the forecast from Environment Canada is too quick with the 
evolution of the pattern in the Pacific and therefore is overdone in the dry 
look for later in the year. 

-Dave