Message-ID: <13688501.1075840033683.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 19:28:02 -0800 (PST) From: jill.chatterton@enron.com To: tom.alonso@enron.com, robert.badeer@enron.com, tim.belden@enron.com, sean.crandall@enron.com, m..driscoll@enron.com, mark.fischer@enron.com, chris.mallory@enron.com, matt.motley@enron.com, jeff.richter@enron.com, diana.scholtes@enron.com, mike.swerzbin@enron.com, bill.williams@enron.com Subject: FW: Energy Market Report - 01/23/02 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Chatterton, Jill X-To: Alonso, Tom , Badeer, Robert , Belden, Tim , Crandall, Sean , Driscoll, Michael M. , Fischer, Mark , Mallory, Chris , Motley, Matt , Richter, Jeff , Scholtes, Diana , Swerzbin, Mike , Williams III, Bill X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Swerzbin, Mike\Inbox X-Origin: SWERZBIN-M X-FileName: Subject: Energy Market Report - 01/23/02 Energy Market Report Wednesday, January 23, 2002 *See attached pdf file. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) January 23, 2002 for January 24, 2002 Peak(Heavy) Low Change High Change NW/N. Rockies 18.50 0.00 19.00 0.00 Mid-Columbia 18.50 0.00 19.00 0.00 COB 21.25 0.25 21.50 -0.25 N. California 22.50 0.00 24.50 0.50 Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 22.55 1.30 24.40 0.40 Mead 21.00 -0.50 23.00 -1.75 Palo Verde 19.00 -2.25 23.00 -0.50 Inland SW 19.00 -2.25 23.75 -1.00 4-Corners 21.25 0.75 23.00 1.00 Central Rockies 19.50 -1.00 21.00 -0.25 __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change High Change NW/N. Rockies 16.25 0.25 16.75 0.25 Mid-Columbia 16.25 0.25 16.75 0.25 COB 16.50 0.50 17.00 -1.00 N. California 16.50 -0.50 18.00 0.50 Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 16.50 0.50 18.85 0.85 Mead 15.50 1.00 19.00 3.00 Palo Verde 14.00 0.25 16.25 0.75 Inland SW 14.00 0.25 19.00 3.00 4-Corners 14.75 0.75 15.50 0.50 Central Rockies 14.00 1.00 16.00 1.00 _________________________________________________________ Duncan Demands Immunity Day-ahead peak power prices in the Western U.S. were mostly steady for Thursday delivery amid weather forecasts calling for a slight increase in temperatures and an abundance of Northwest hydropower. However, temperatures were expected to drop again beginning on Friday, which offered sellers a glimmer of hope for a stronger end to the month. Additionally, the latest six-to-ten from the National Weather Service showed the Western U.S. blanketed in below-normal temperatures from January 29 through February 2. NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures were mixed in moderate trade Wednesday, with the fronts pushed down to new lows by mostly mild U.S. weather forecasts, and again later in the session by a bearish AGA weekly inventory report. February Hub gas fell 3 cents to close at 2.076$/mmBtu after reaching a new contract low of 2.04$/mmBtu shortly after the AGA report was released. March also hit a new low of 2.06$/mmBtu, but settled 2.9 cents lower than a day ago at 2.089$/mmBtu. The AGA inventory report indicated that 124 bcf were taken out of storage last week, below industry estimates and the five-year average drop of 182 bcf. Total U.S. inventories stood at 2.405 tcf, 1.036 tcf, or 76% above last year. Of the 124 bcf withdrawn, 21 were taken out of the Western Consuming Region. Total Western inventories stood at 379 bcf, or 75 percent full. Inventories for the same week a year ago were 241 bcf, and have averaged 280 bcf over the past five years. Now for your daily dose of Enron. David Duncan, the fired Andersen partner who was the lead auditor for Enron Corp, challenged Congress by stating via his attorney that he would invoke his Fifth Amendment rights and refuse to testify at a hearing scheduled for Thursday unless he was granted immunity. Committee chairman Rep. Billy Tauzin said that no immunity would be granted Duncan without consent of the Justice Department. "I will not provide immunity to anyone without consent of the Justice Department who is doing a criminal investigation. I have not received such a green light to this date, as to whether or not they change their mind I can't say," said Tauzin on CNN. Heavy load energy costs in the Northwest were unchanged Wednesday as abundant hydro supplies satiated regional heating demand. "It's still cold, but we've got plenty of hydro to cushion us," said one Northwest utility trader. Flow forecasts for Chief Joseph were revised higher Wednesday, coming in at 110 kcfs Thursday, 100 kcfs Friday, 75 kcfs Saturday, 65 kcfs Sunday, 105 kcfs Monday, and 100 kcfs next Tuesday and Wednesday. There was no major unit news to report, but Colstrip #3 (700 MW) remained down for generator repairs. According to Weather Derivatives, heating demand in the region was forecast to average 136% of normal through January 30, with the greatest demand expected early next week. Amid a healthy grid and concerns that weather could be slightly warmer than expected later in the week, electricity prices were mostly steady in the Golden State on Wednesday. "We're chasing gas and watching the extended forecast pretty closely, but otherwise it is a boring day," said one Western marketer. The heavy load product at SP15 changed hands between 22.55 and 24.4$/MWh, with the bulk of deals done around 23.25$/MWh, while light load pieces were bought and sold from 16.5 to 18.85$/MWh. In political news, the CPUC approved two measures necessary for SCE's return to solvency. SCE will be allowed to raise $1.5 billion in bridge financing, which when combined with $4 billion cash on hand, will permit the bankrupt utility to pay off its creditors by the end of the first quarter. Secondly, SCE will raise consumer rates to cover the bridge financing. "SCE needs to pay off their qualifying facilities, but it will be interesting to see whether they are actually willing and able to pay the CalPX for power purchased on the exchange, and for power purchased on their behalf by CAISO last winter. I'm a little skeptical, but I hope they do," commented one market analyst. In unit news, gas-fired Scattergood #3 (445 MW) was off the grid on Wednesday for planned maintenance. Highs for Thursday were predicted in the mid-60s in Los Angeles, and low-50s at mid-state load centers. Temperatures were expected to remain below normal in California through Sunday. The most current six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 29 to February 2. On forecasts calling for slight warming, peak power prices in the Southwest traded slightly lower for Thursday delivery. "Our overnight lows are supposed to climb back into the 40s beginning tonight, and that's much more tolerable than the 30s," said one Phoenix-based trader. Heavy load energy at Palo Verde traded anywhere from 19 to 23$/MWh, though most deals went through around the 22$/MWh mark. There was no significant unit news to report on Wednesday, but there was some talk of an upcoming maintenance outage. Sources indicated that Navajo #2 (750 MW) was coming down for planned maintenance on February 2, and returning on February 25. Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris _________________________________________________________ Western Generating Unit Outages Current Begins Ends Reason CAISO units <250/7054 total NA NA planned/unplanned* Alamitos #3/320/gas 21-Jan-02 ? planned Alamitos #6/480/gas 20-Jan-02 ? planned Colstrip #3/700/coal 11-Jan-02 ? repairs Encina #4/303/gas 12-Jan-02 ? unplanned Etiwanda #4/320/gas 21-Jan-02 ? planned Four Corners #5 09-Jan-02 14-Mar-02 maintenance Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs Haynes #6/341/gas 07-Jan-02 ? planned Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @506 MW, unplanned Morro Bay #4/336/gas 21-Jan-02 ? planned Moss Landing #7/739/gas 29-Dec-01 ? planned Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW, unplanned Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned Pittsburg #7/682/gas 21-Jan-02 ? unplanned Scattergood #3/445/gas 22-Jan-02 ? maintenance* Future Navajo #2/750/coal 02-Feb-02 25-Feb-02 maintenance* For unit owners refer to pdf version. *Indicates a change from previous EMR. ______________________________________________________________________ Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh) January 23, 2002 for January 24, 2002 Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh Low Change High Change Into Cinergy 15.50 -1.25 17.90 -0.60 Western PJM 21.50 -0.50 21.90 -1.05 Into Entergy 17.10 -0.60 18.00 -0.20 Into TVA 16.00 0.00 17.50 -1.75 ERCOT 17.10 0.10 17.90 0.30 ___________________________________________________________ Hope of an upswing in the spot electricity market was firmly squashed Wednesday as a bearish AGA report, incredibly warm January temperatures, and soft gas values plagued the market, sending day-ahead power prices mostly lower across the Eastern Interconnect. Temperatures were expected anywhere from 11 to 20 degrees above normal in the East on Thursday. The AGA weekly inventory report listed a total draw of 124 bcf, a number well below industry estimates of around 145 bcf. NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures, already low, sunk further on the disappointing news coupled with the warm weather pattern. February shed 3 cents to close at 2.076$/mmBtu, while the March contract fell 2.9 cents to end at 2.089$/mmBtu. Both months reached new contract lows during the day, before rebounding somewhat prior to the close. Heavy load energy costs slipped lower in the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. "The dailies were pretty lame today, with the extremely mild temperatures and the soft real-time prices. Prices were a little erratic early, on a possible unit outage, but demand is too weak for even a large curtailment to matter," summed up one PJM trader. Market players remained uncertain as to which unit shut Wednesday. Western PJM goods for Thursday delivery traded between 21.5 and 21.9$/MWh, while the February contract lost about 15 cents, trading mostly around 23.5$/MWh. LMPs remained low on Wednesday, after showing a little strength around 10:00 EST, and averaging 20.68$/MWh through 15:00 EST. Daytime highs were expected to hit 62 degrees in D.C. on Thursday, while other PJM load centers also expected warm temperatures, with highs in the mid-50s. The most current six-to-ten projected no relief in sight, as above-normal temperatures were forecast from January 29 to February 2. Amid mild weather conditions and little else, peak electricity prices shed value in the Midwest on Wednesday. Into Cinergy goods opened at the day's highest levels, and fell off steadily through the session, trading between 15.5 and 17.9$/MWh. According to traders, February was actively traded, bouncing between 19.4 and 19.55$/MWh. Temperatures were expected to reach highs in the low-50s on Thursday across ECAR. The latest six-to-ten called for above-normal temperatures from January 29 to February 2. Day-ahead power prices tanked in the Southeast on Wednesday, weighed down by bearish fundamentals. Into Entergy deals were done between 17.1 and 18$/MWh, with the bulk of transactions heard near 17.75$/MWh. February saw action from 18.3 to 18.4$/MWh. High temperatures across SERC were expected in the spring-like upper-60s to low-70s on Thursday. Texas power prices bucked the trend on Wednesday, rising on cooler weather for Thursday. The most current six-to-ten called for above-normal temperatures in the Southeast from January 29 to February 2. ___________________________________________________________ California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh Path Peak Off-peak for 24-Jan-02 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00 NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00 SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00 OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh Mid-C PV SP-15 Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask BOM NA NA NA NA NA NA February NA NA NA NA NA NA March NA NA NA NA NA NA April NA NA NA NA NA NA Q2 '02 NA NA NA NA NA NA Q3 '02 NA NA NA NA NA NA Q4 '02 NA NA NA NA NA NA Q1 '03 NA NA NA NA NA NA Cal '03 NA NA NA NA NA NA Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable by the Energy Market Report. Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh) Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change for 22-Jan-02 39.46 39.24 19.60 33.29 6.90 BPA's Offer for 01/25/02 and 01/26/02. Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered 7-22 200MW Market Price* Market Price* *Market price will be determined at time of request. NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu Close Change Feb 2.076 -0.030 Mar 2.089 -0.029 Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu Low High Sumas 2.01 2.06 So. Cal Border 2.12 2.17 San Juan 1.96 2.01 __________________________________________________________ Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201, Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com - Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.