Message-ID: <20002533.1075840035747.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 28 Dec 2001 12:18:54 -0800 (PST) From: jill.chatterton@enron.com To: tom.alonso@enron.com, robert.badeer@enron.com, tim.belden@enron.com, sean.crandall@enron.com, m..driscoll@enron.com, mark.fischer@enron.com, chris.mallory@enron.com, matt.motley@enron.com, jeff.richter@enron.com, diana.scholtes@enron.com, mike.swerzbin@enron.com, bill.williams@enron.com Subject: FW: Energy Market Report - 12-27-01 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Chatterton, Jill X-To: Alonso, Tom , Badeer, Robert , Belden, Tim , Crandall, Sean , Driscoll, Michael M. , Fischer, Mark , Mallory, Chris , Motley, Matt , Richter, Jeff , Scholtes, Diana , Swerzbin, Mike , Williams III, Bill X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Swerzbin, Mike\Inbox X-Origin: SWERZBIN-M X-FileName: Energy Market Report Thursday, December 27, 2001 *See attached pdf file. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 26, 2001 for December 30, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 21.00 NA 22.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 21.00 NA 22.00 NA COB* 19.25 NA 20.50 NA N. California* 19.25 NA 23.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 18.50 NA 25.00 NA Mead* 18.50 NA 19.00 NA Palo Verde* 18.00 NA 19.00 NA Inland SW* 18.00 NA 19.00 NA 4-Corners* 18.25 NA 19.50 NA Central Rockies* 14.50 NA 15.50 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 21.00 NA 22.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 21.00 NA 22.00 NA COB* 19.25 NA 20.50 NA N. California* 19.25 NA 23.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 18.50 NA 25.00 NA Mead* 18.50 NA 19.00 NA Palo Verde* 18.00 NA 19.00 NA Inland SW* 18.00 NA 19.00 NA 4-Corners* 18.25 NA 19.50 NA Central Rockies* 14.50 NA 15.50 NA *Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products. **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 26, 2001 for December 31, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 22.75 NA 23.25 NA Mid-Columbia 22.75 NA 23.25 NA COB 24.00 NA 24.75 NA N. California 26.00 NA 26.50 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 25.30 NA 27.00 NA Mead 25.00 NA 26.00 NA Palo Verde 25.00 NA 26.00 NA Inland SW 25.00 NA 26.00 NA 4-Corners 24.75 NA 26.00 NA Central Rockies 21.50 NA 22.50 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 21.00 NA 22.00 NA Mid-Columbia 21.00 NA 22.00 NA COB 19.25 NA 20.50 NA N. California 19.25 NA 23.00 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 18.50 NA 25.00 NA Mead 18.50 NA 19.00 NA Palo Verde 18.00 NA 19.00 NA Inland SW 18.00 NA 19.00 NA 4-Corners 18.25 NA 19.50 NA Central Rockies 14.50 NA 15.50 NA **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ Gasping Over Gas As EMR staff and Western traders trickled into work from their extended holidays, peak prices in the Western energy markets backed down slightly from levels seen on Wednesday. "Well, weather's not atplay here - there's a lot of water for the hydro, it's cool, but not cold, and it's the holidays," explained one Northwest marketer. "There's just not a lot of motivation to buy or sell," he added. Off-peak power firmed up slightly across the entire WSCC, likely due to increased overnight heating demand, some analysts ventured. Other likely contributors to Thursday's softening of WSCC peak power prices were high gas inventories and lower spot prices, according to players. The AGA's weekly natural gas inventory report was released on Thursday, showing a draw of 81 bcf - a bigger draw than the industry expectations of 65 to 70 bcf, but well below last year's draw of 175 bcf and the historical average of 145 bcf. Combined with the fact that current U.S. stocks stand at 2.980 tcf, or 90% of capacity, Thursday's natural gas news wreaked havoc on NYMEX futures prices. The January contract expired Thursday after plummeting 35.6 cents to settle at 2.555$/mmBtu, while the February contract trailed along, losing 31.8 cents to close at 2.619$/mmBtu. "I felt like I was on a sinking ship," exclaimed one exasperated gas marketer, "Everyone was yelling 'Bail, bail, bail!'" Despite the excitement in natural gas markets, most energy traders reported another day of thin and illiquid trading as most businesses and all schools will remain closed until after the New Year. Northwest peak power prices for the Sunday-Monday package eased off almost 2$/MWh from levels seen on Wednesday. Monday peak goods at Mid-Columbia traded in a tight range from 22.75 to 23.25$/MWh. Temperatures in the Northwest ranged from the upper-40s west of the Cascade Mountains to below freezing east of the Cascades. The five-day forecast called for temperatures across the region to converge on normal as the weekend progresses into Monday. The latest six-to-ten called for temperatures to range from normal to below normal across the region from January 2 through 6. Flows at Chief Joseph were revised slightly upward, coming in at 90 kcfs Friday, 75 kcfs Saturday, 60 kcfs Sunday, 90 kcfs Monday, 55 kcfs New Year's Day, and 100 kcfs Wednesday through next Thursday. There was no unit news to report in the Northwest on Thursday. Amid near-normal weather forecasts and weak spot gas prices, heavy load energy costs fell in the Golden State on Thursday, while light load prices were up on the usual all-day Sunday premium. Sunday-Monday package prices at SP15 won the pole position on Thursday, with peak goods changing hands between 25.3 and 27$/MWh, while off-peak power was traded from 18.5 to 25$/MWh. "L.A. is supposed to be about 10 degrees warmer than load centers farther north so weather's probably not a factor, but New Year's loads are usually higher, particularly in Pasadena with the Rose Bowl and all," speculated one California player. Another added that liquidity was still affecting the market on Thursday. Spot natural gas prices at the Southern California border followed the general trend when they slipped 23 cents, trading between 2.52 and 2.57$/mmBtu. In generation news, gas-fired Moss Landing #6 (739 MW) returned to service on Thursday. The unit has been down since December 19 for unplanned maintenance. Los Medanos (550 MW) was operating at 125 MW, down from Wednesday's level of 200 MW. Additionally, there was an extra 640 MW off-line on Thursday from units with a capacity less than 250 MW. On the weather front, the outlook was less than exciting, with temperatures across the state expected to linger within five degrees of normal through Monday. Overnight lows were forecast uniformly in the mid-40s. The latest six-to-ten from the NWS called for above-normal temperatures from January 2 to 6. Not even sustained below-normal temperatures could prop up power prices for peak goods in the Southwest on Thursday against the gas-led tumble that rattled the WSCC. Peak goods at Palo Verde traded in a dollar range from 25 to 26$/MWh, a softening of 4$/MWh on the high end. Temperatures were normal to below normal across the region, and one couldn't even break a sweat in Phoenix on Thursday. The five-day forecast called for temperatures to heat up on average, but they were still not expected to warm into above-normal territory. The latest six-to-ten predicted temperatures to remain normal or below normal through January 6. Nary a murmur was heard of unit outages in the region on Thursday. David Ramberg and Jessie Norris _________________________________________________________ Western Generating Unit Outages Current Begins Ends Reason CAISO units <250/6515 total NA NA planned/unplanned* Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned Alamitos #4/320/gas 23-Dec-01 ? planned Big Creek Project/1020/hydro 09-Dec-01 ? @752MW, planned El Segundo #3/337/gas 02-Oct-01 ? unplanned Etiwanda #3/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Etiwanda #4/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW, unplanned Los Medanos/550/gas 25-Dec-01 ? @125 MW, unplanned* Morro Bay #4/336/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW, unplanned Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned Sutter Plants/546/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned For unit owners refer to pdf version. *Indicates a change from previous EMR. ______________________________________________________________________ Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh) December 27, 2001 for December 28, 2001 Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh Low Change High Change Into Cinergy 19.00 -3.00 21.50 -5.50 Western PJM 25.50 -0.50 26.35 -0.15 Into Entergy 21.00 -2.50 22.50 -3.00 Into TVA 20.00 -4.00 20.50 -5.00 ___________________________________________________________ As natural gas prices dropped considerably and below-normal temperatures reigned supreme, peak power prices for Friday delivery settled lower across the Eastern Interconnect. "The Jan/Feb contract came off a lot today, but otherwise there wasn't much interest or liquidity in the market," commented one southern trader. The AGA's weekly inventory report listed an 81 bcf draw on Thursday, above most industry forecasts of 65 to 70 bcf. NYMEX Henry Hub futures were unable to sustain recent gains, and slipped substantially. On its last day of trading, the January contract sunk like a stone, losing a traumatic 35.6 cents to close at 2.555$/mmBtu. February fell an equally depressing 31.8 cents to end at 2.619$/mmBtu. Despite a new unit outage and continued cold weather, day-ahead electricity prices edged down in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. According to sources, Indian Point #2 tripped off-line sometime Wednesday and remained down on Thursday. Some traders speculated the unit would be back up Saturday, December 29. Western PJM daily goods changed hands between 25.5 and 26.35$/MWh. "Someone was buying a lot of power early so prices were strong, but after that they fell. There was some West to East congestion which kept them from dropping too much and the real-time number was also robust," summed up one PJM player. LMPs lingered above 40$/MWh for two hours in the late morning, but were averaging 25.85$/MWh through 15:00 EST. The five-day weather outlook predicted sustained below-normal temperatures through Monday, with highs uniformly expected in the mid-30s across PJM. The latest six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 2 to 6. Forecasts for bitterly cold temperatures by the weekend cheered Midwestern sellers, but despite the good news heavy load energy costs for Friday delivery slumped on Thursday. Into Cinergy pieces traded between 19 and 21.5$/MWh, losing a painful 5.5$/MWh off the high end and 3$/MWh off the low. "Load forecasts for the new week are higher, so we should see some strength on Friday," opined one trader, while another said, "I think people will keep the thermostat up and their gas fireplaces crackling over New Year 's." No new curtailment information was available on Thursday. High temperatures were expected in the low-20s to high-teens by Saturday, with little change expected through Monday. The most current six-to-ten predicted below-normal temperatures from January 2 to 6. Amid much weaker natural gas prices, peak electricity prices tumbled in the Southeast on Thursday. Into Entergy deals were done from 21 to 22.5$/MWh, with the bulk of transactions seen nearer the high end. Into TVA prices were heard between 20 and 20.5$/MWh, losing at least 4$/MWh off both ends, while traders said the hub was very illiquid. Friday forecasts predicted slightly below-normal temperatures, with overnight lows in the 28 to 34 degree range. Substantial cooling was expected by Sunday and Monday, with lows predicted in the mid-20s across the entire region. The latest six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 2 to 6. ___________________________________________________________ California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh Path Peak Off-peak for 28-Dec-01 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00 NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00 SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00 OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh Mid-C PV SP-15 Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask BOM -- -- -- -- -- -- January 24.75 26.25 27.25 28.25 28.50 29.50 February 21.50 23.00 26.00 27.00 27.00 28.00 March 19.00 20.50 25.50 26.50 26.50 27.50 Q1 '02 21.50 23.00 25.75 26.75 27.50 28.50 Q2 '02 16.50 18.00 28.00 29.00 28.00 29.00 Q3 '02 33.50 35.50 43.75 44.75 42.00 43.00 Q4 '02 28.50 30.00 28.75 29.75 31.00 32.00 Cal '03 30.75 32.25 34.00 35.00 35.00 36.00 Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable by the Energy Market Report. Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh) Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change for 26-Dec-01 24.48 22.85 16.88 20.98 5.76 BPA's Offer for 12/27/01 and 12/29/01. Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered 7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price* *Market price will be determined at time of request. NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu Close Change Jan 2.555 -0.356 Feb 2.619 -0.318 Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu Low High Sumas 2.40 2.45 So. Cal Border 2.52 2.57 San Juan 2.37 2.42 __________________________________________________________ Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201, Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com - Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001.