Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Thursday, February 28 2002 No. 951
Visit: http://www.enerfax.com to view our web version or for Oil Prices & News http://www.enerfaxgold.com
PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES ??
Gulf/Eastern Region
| Agua Dulce | 2.38 |
| ANR SE | 2.44 |
| Carthage Tailgate | 2.44 |
| Chicago Citygate | 2.50 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 2.47 |
| Dominion South Point | 2.76 |
| Henry Hub | 2.48 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 2.48 |
| Katy Tailgate/Exxon | 2.45 |
| NGPL LA Pool | 2.44 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 2.36 |
| NGPL STX | 2.39 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 2.41 |
| NNG Demarc. | 2.46 |
| Niagara | 2.62 |
| Sonat Tier 1 | 2.44 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 2.60 |
| Tetco ELa | 2.46 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.91 |
| Tetco STX | 2.42 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 2.42 |
| TGP Zone 1 (500 Leg) | 2.49 |
| TGT Zone SL | 2.47 |
| New York Citygate | 3.67 |
| Transco Station 65 | 2.50 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 3.67 |
| Trunk ELa | 2.43 |
| Western Region
| California Border | 2.34 |
| El Paso Keystone | 2.28 |
| El Paso San Juan-Blanco | 2.19 |
| Waha Hub | 2.39 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 3.28 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 2.51 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 2.25 |
| Wyoming Pool | 2.05 |
| Opal | 2.04 |
| PGT-Malin | 2.31 |
| Sumas | 2.24 |
Flow Date 2/28
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NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub
12 Month Strip ?2.8278 ? ? ?
18 Month Strip ?2.9299? ?
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| APR | 2.435 | 2.330 | 2.427 | +0.038 |
| MAY | 2.480 | 2.400 | 2.479 | +0.030 |
| JUN | 2.540 | 2.470 | 2.536 | +0.027 |
| JUL | 2.595 | 2.545 | 2.591 | +0.027 |
| AUG | 2.645 | 2.595 | 2.641 | +0.027 |
| SEP | 2.635 | 2.600 | 2.652 | +0.028 |
| OCT | 2.675 | 2.640 | 2.691 | +0.032 |
| NOV | 2.940 | 2.910 | 2.953 | +0.032 |
| DEC | 3.175 | 3.150 | 3.205 | +0.044 |
| JAN | 3.310 | 3.270 | 3.319 | +0.053 |
| FEB | 3.280 | 3.210 | 3.265 | +0.054 |
| MAR | 3.190 | 3.120 | 3.175 | +0.059 |
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Natural Gas Futures Higher Despite Lower AGA
Natural gas futures for April delivery on the NYMEX continued higher yesterday, gaining $0.038 to $2.427 per MMBtu, despite a lower than expected AGA withdrawal. The May contract rose $0.03 to $2.479 per MMBtu. The AGA reported only 64 Bcf was withdrawn from storage last week. However, as has been the case for the last several weeks, technicals have trumped storage data as the market driver. But the bearishness has been canned, to be drug out in a couple days as a reason for the market to fall. The fundamentals are known and the AGA doesnt really matter now because it does not materially affect the fundamentals on a short term basis. Storage inventories now stands at 1.88 Tcf, compared with the 5-year average of 1.25 Tcf. Estimated volume was about 50,000 contracts, most of which were spreads. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and Canada was generally flat to plus or minus $0.05. Natural gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub gained $0.02 to $2.48 per M!
MBtu.
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Today's Power Bulletins
* Reliant Resources Suspends 2 Executives After Internal Review of Accounting Errors that Led to Postponement of 4th Quarter Earnings Report and 14% Drop in Stock Price
* Georgia Power Faces New Discrimination Lawsuit
* PG&E Bankruptcy Judge Rules California PUC May Submit Own Reorganization Plan
* Marce Fuller, CEO of Mirant, to Speak at Morgan Stanleys Global Electricity and
Energy Conference at 7:30 AM EST March 5th; Available Through Link from
www.mirant.com
* Pepco-Conectiv Merger Settlement Agreement Reached in District of Columbia
* Bankruptcy Court Allows PG&E to Pay $333 Million Mortgage Bond Maturity
* Edison Electric Institutes Alliance of Energy Suppliers Introduces Siting Power Plants: A Guide to the Permitting Process to Help Developers Gain State Approval for Permitting Fossil Fuel Power Plants in 9 States
* Severed Enron Employees Coalition Gains Seat On Class Action Steering Committee
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AGA Natural Gas Storage Report
Week Prev
Ending Prev Prev Year
| Region |2/22/02 | Week | Diff | % Full | Year | % Full|
| Prod | 598 | 608 | -10 | 63% | 242 | 25% |
| East | 979 | 1033 | -54 | 53% | 456 | 25% |
| West | 303 | 303 | 0 | 60% | 161 | 33% |
| Total | 1880 | 1944 | -64 | 57% | 859 | 26%
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Canadian Naturals 4th Quarter Earnings Plunge
Canadian Natural Resources has reported that 4th quarter profit fell 76% because of lower oil and natural gas prices and a C$19 million after tax loss on the sale of Gulf of Mexico properties it acquired in its takeover of Ranger Oil. Canadian Natural earned C$52 million, or C$0.43 per share, compared to C$223 million, or C$1.77 per share in the 4th quarter of 2000. Analysts average estimate was C$0.65. Cash flow dropped 41% to C$328 million, or C$2.63 per share, from C$555 million, or C$4.39. Sales fell from C$838 million to C$578 million. In the 4th quarter, Canadian Natural received an average of C$21.28 per barrel for its oil, down 16% from the year before. In December, it shut down some heavy crude production and delayed drilling until the spread between heavy and light oil prices narrowed. Its average natural gas price was C$2.94 per Mcf for the quarter, 60% lower than the previous year. Oil production averaged 198,000 bpd, slightly below the 4th quarter of 2000. Natur!
al gas production climbed 22% to over 1 Bcf per day partially due to drilling success at Ladyfern in northeastern British Columbia. Canadian Natural expects to produce 379,000 to 393,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2002, up 7% from 2001. That would include 1.08 to 1.1 Bcf of natural gas and up to 210,000 barrels of oil and gas liquids per day.
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Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
02MAR 66,955
02APR 33,847
02MAY 5,169
02JUN 3,394
02JLY 2,378
02AUG 4,018
02SEP 912
02OCT 2,525
02NOV 2,368
02DEC 2,451
03JAN 3,468
03FEB 442
03MAR 450
03APR 150
03MAY 87
03JUN 20
03JLY 30
03AUG 209
03SEP 156
03OCT 382
03NOV 12
03DEC 937
04JAN 330
04FEB 0
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Analysts Testify Before Congress on Enron Rating Debacle
Wall Street analysts, whose firms sold most of the $25 billion in stock and bonds issued by Enron, testified before Congress yesterday that they were not influenced by their companies dealings with Enron, and were misled about Enron's financial condition. As late as November 8th, 11 of the 16 analysts whose job it was to follow Enron still rated the company as buy or strong buy. Enron has been involved in 69 acquisitions, valued about $40 billion and held 62 bond and note sales since 1985. Salomon Smith Barney was the biggest adviser on Enron mergers, with about $5 billion in transactions, followed by Credit Suisse with $4.45 billion. Credit Suisse served as the sole lead manager for $1.75 billion in secondary stock sales by Enron over the last 10 years, generating about $52.5 million in fees. Chase Manhattan arranged more than $7 billion in financing for Enron. Even though the analysts may not have directly benefited from their stock recommendations, senators pointed to!
a potential conflict of interest because their firms have business ties with companies the analysts follow. And, analysts can receive bonuses based on overall profits of their firms, which in turn can depend on the companies the analysts follow. The 4 analysts testifying at the hearing said they get bonuses on that basis. Some have proposed new regulations to increase barriers between investment bankers and analysts within a security firm. Analysts would have to disclose whether they personally hold any stock of a company they recommend and if their firm has business ties to that company. The analysts that testified yesterday represent Credit Suisse, JP Morgan Chase, Lehman and Citigroups Salomon Smith Barney.
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PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 32.50 | 30.00 | 31.25 |
| ECAR | 37.00 | 28.00 | 32.55 |
| ERCOT | 28.25 | 19.75 | 22.80 |
| Entergy | 31.00 | 28.00 | 30.00 |
| TVA | 42.30 | 37.20 | 40.55 |
| ComEd | 29.00 | 27.00 | 27.95 |
| Nepool | 33.50 | 31.50 | 32.45 |
| PJM West | 30.75 | 30.00 | 30.35 |
| Main | 34.00 | 27.00 | 29.75 |
| MAPP | 32.00 | 28.00 | 29.65 |
| Palo Verde | 25.40 | 24.00 | 24.80 |
| Mid C | 23.50 | 22.50 | 23.05 |
| COB | 25.00 | 24.50 | 24.80 |
| 4 Corners | 24.50 | 23.50 | 24.00 |
| Mead | 26.50 | 25.00 | 25.50 |
| NP 15 | 26.75 | 26.00 | 26.50 |
| SP 15 | 26.75 | 25.75 | 26.25 |
Power Delivered 2/28
-------------------------------------------------------------
FERC Approves Duke Purchase of Westcoast
The FERC has approved Duke Energys $8.5 billion acquisition of Westcoast Energy. The action cleared the way for Duke to take over ownership of Engage America and a power generation project operated by Frederickson Power, both subsidiaries of Westcoast. The new company will have natural gas related assets, including about 18,900 miles of transmission pipeline, 241 Bcf of natural gas storage, 58,700 miles of gathering pipeline, 84 processing facilities and 16,500 miles of distribution pipeline. The acquisition has already been approved by Canadian regulators but must still be reviewed by the Investment Canada board. The deal must also be approved by the FTC and the SEC, which is not expected to be a problem.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Todays Gas Bulletins
* Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Stocks Jump to Record High; TSE Oil and Gas Sub-Index Up 1.4% to New High of 9810.24
* S&P Says Amerada Hess Rating Unaffected by Sale Pursuit
* Federal Judge Delays Ruling on Request from JP Morgan Chase for Immediate Payment of $965 Million from Group of Insurers for Energy Enron Failed to Deliver
Federal Judge Orders DOE to Give Documents to Natural Resources Defense
Council Seeking to Learn If Enron Influence Administrations Energy Policy
* AltaCanada Energy Shareholders Approve Acquisition of Control of 74% of Outstanding Securities of Alberta Selecta
* Moodys and S&P Affirm Williams Progress to Resolve Financial Issues Related to Williams Communications; But Moodys Changes Outlook to Negative from Stable
* NUI Corporation Offers 1.5 Million Shares of Common Stock in Public Offering for
$23.09 per Share
* Astros to Give Enron $2.1 Million and Its Name Back
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POWER FUTURES ?
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| MAR | 20.00 | +0.00 | 22.50 | +0.00 |
| APR | 20.25 | +0.00 | 24.00 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 19.75 | +0.00 | 25.00 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 21.00 | +0.00 | 28.50 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 28.75 | +0.50 | 39.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 37.50 | +0.00 | 45.25 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 33.50 | +0.00 | 34.50 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 29.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 29.00 | +0.00 | 28.50 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 30.50 | +0.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 30.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 29.00 | +0.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| MAR | 20.00 | +0.00 | 21.10 | +0.00 |
| APR | 20.00 | +0.00 | 21.60 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 22.50 | +0.00 | 24.70 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 27.50 | +0.00 | 30.00 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 34.50 | +0.00 | 38.25 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 34.50 | +0.00 | 38.25 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 21.50 | +0.00 | 22.90 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 21.85 | +0.00 | 22.90 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 21.85 | +0.00 | 22.90 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 21.85 | +0.00 | 22.90 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 24.10 | +0.00 | 25.90 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 24.10 | +0.00 | 25.90 | +0.00 |
------------------------------------------------------------
Power Futures
| Month | PJM | Change |
| MAR | 25.10 | +0.00 |
| APR | 25.10 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 28.25 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 35.00 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 46.15 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 46.15 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 27.15 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 26.00 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 26.00 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 26.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 30.25 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 30.25 | +0.00 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Platts Says Power Prices Down 85% Nationwide from Year Ago
Wholesale day-ahead power prices are down 85% from year-ago levels, according to Platts. The average of benchmark prices across the nation fell $121.75 to $22.01 per MWh from mid-February 2001. The national average slipped only $0.16 from January to February. The greatest year-on-year declines remain in the West, where the region's power crisis sent prices to record levels last year. However, prices east of the continental divide also saw a significant drop. Day-ahead prices for Mid-Columbia fell 95% from $452.89 per MWh in mid-February 2001. In the last month, prices rose 6% to an average of $21.43 per MWh. At Palo Verde, the most active Western hub, day-ahead prices slipped 94% to $23.82 per MWh from $397.63 per MWh in mid-February 2001. Palo Verde spot prices have gained $0.67 in the last month. Northern and Southern California spot prices were each down 94% year-on-year from an average of $433.11 per MWh and $452 per MWh, respectively. NP15, which corresponds to the!
California ISOs congestion zone for the Northern portion of the state, saw prices rise 7% to $25.67 per MWh from January to February. Prices for SP15, which corresponds to the Southern portion of the state, climbed 7% to $25.66 per MWh during the month. Spot power prices in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states saw declines both year-on-year and month-on-month. New England day-ahead prices fell 43% to $27.42 per MWh from $47.77 per MWh in mid-February 2001 when strong natural gas prices buoyed prices. PJM West saw prices drop 24% to $21.98 per MWh from $28.99 per MWh February 2001. Prices in PJM are down $1.54 from last month. Into Cinergy day-ahead prices fell 51% to $18.58 per MWh from $38.64 per MWh year-on-year. Prices have moved up $1.54 since last month. Price for delivery to ERCOT, the grid operator for Texas, were $18.47 per MWh in mid-February, a 58% drop from the same time last year. The day-ahead prices have climbed $1.07.
-------------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nymex Natural Gas Option Volatility
Supplied by "The Daily Hedger"
Http://www.energy-institution.org
Futures Implied
Month Settlement Days Left Volatility Apr $2.427 25 76.6%
May $2.479 56 75.0%
Jun $2.536 89 45.1%
Jul $2.591 117 45.0%
Aug $2.641 148 45.0%
Sep $2.652 180 44.9%
Oct $2.691 209 45.2%
Nov $2.953 242 42.2%
Dec $3.205 270 46.1%
Jan $3.319 301 47.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------
PRICES AT KEY LEVEL
Since late January, natural gas futures have made an impressive advance of over 30 cents under fundamental conditions that appear to be unsupportive of increasing prices. Although students of the laws of supply and demand would require a shift in production, consumption, or other economic variables to revise their assessments of natural gas prices, market technicians see the situation from the standpoint of only analyzing price behavior or variables derived from price movements. "I look at a number of different tools, but there is a beautiful (down) trend-line (that projects lower prices)," says an Oklahoma City analyst. "The big debate as prices move up is that although there are overlapping technical patterns, the current rise may be the fourth (wave higher) of a five wave pattern down and there is one more new price low coming. The counter to that argument is that if prices reach and hold above $2.50, prices will not make that final (fifth wave) down, and that there is !
a bigger rally coming. A close over $2.50 per MMBtu, not just a trade over $2.50 is one issue that we are studying carefully," he said. Prices maybe at a pivotal point. "It will be key to see how prices handle themselves in the mid $2.40's. There's a very good chance that prices will retreat to the low $2.20's I am in a negative mode on this market. But if we close above the trend-line at $2.50 then I will take a neutral to positive stance on this market.
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-------------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 increased 79.42 points to 7646.89
The CRB Index gained 0.19 points to 191.44
The US Dollar dropped 0.26 points to 119.57
The Dow advanced 12.32 points to 10127.58
The S&P 500 rose 0.51 points to 1109.89
The Nasdaq was down 14.98 points to 1751.88
April NYMEX Crude Oil lost 0.12 to 21.29
Canadian-US Exchange fell 0.0027 to 1.6083
-------------------------------------------------------------
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