Message-ID: <11378989.1075860903190.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 10:12:56 -0800 (PST) From: rebrooks@earthlink.net To: rebrooks@rbac.com Subject: GPCM News: 2/13/02: EEA Says Demand Will Rise More Slowly: Pakistan -Afghanistan Plan Gas Pipeline: Alaska to Help Finance Pipeline Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Robert E. Brooks X-To: 'GPCM Distribution' X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Kim_Watson_Mar2002\Watson, Kimberly\E-mail Bin X-Origin: Watson-K X-FileName: kwatson (Non-Privileged).pst From http://www.enerfax.com : Demand Forecast to Rise Slower than Expected Annual natural gas demand will eventually reach the 30 Tcf level, but it will take longer than initially predicted, thanks to the price spikes of last winter and the current economic downturn, according to Energy and Environmental Analysis. Instead of reaching 30 Tcf by 2010, the nation will likely be consuming about 29.58 Tcf per year, and will reach 31.33 Tcf per year by 2015. Demand is forecast to increase in all sectors but most dramatically in power generation, which will likely see a 106% increase by 2015. Demand growth is driven by increased power generation demand, but a large amount of demand will continue to be for winter peaking needs. January consumption will increase from 86 Bcf per day in 2000 to 113 Bcf per day in 2015, or about 2 Bcf per year. The production base is sufficient to satisfy growing demand, but regional production patterns will shift as production grows in the deep water Gulf of Mexico, Rockies and Arctic. Prices are forecast to average in the $2.80 - $2.90 per Mcf range until 2010. But from 2015 to 2020, prices are predicted to average between $3.00 - 3.50 per Mcf. Pakistan and Afghanistan Plan Natural Gas Pipeline Pakistani President Musharraf and Afghan interim leader Hamid Karzai have agreed to cooperate in all spheres of activity, including a proposed natural gas pipeline project from Central Asia to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Pakistan and several multinational companies, including Unocal and Bridas of Argentina, have been considering the idea of constructing a 1,000-mile pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to growing natural gas markets in Pakistan and, potentially, India. Musharraf told Karzai that Pakistan and Afghanistan are bound together by common geography, faith, history and culture. Karzai says he looks forward to a tremendously good future ahead with Pakistan. Alaska Introduces Legislation to Authorize Bonds to Finance Pipeline Alaska's governor has introduced state legislation to authorize the Alaska Railroad Corp to issue $17 billion in tax-exempt bonds to finance the proposed Alaska Highway natural gas pipeline. The bill would amend existing law to authorize the railroad company to issue the bonds to finance construction and maintenance of a natural gas pipeline and related facilities for transporting volumes from Alaska's North Slope. It also authorizes the company to negotiate with producers on the bond issue. The railroad company was granted tax-exempt status when it was transferred from federal to state ownership in 1983, a status reaffirmed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986. It can be used for conduit financing of the proposed pipeline to the lower market states, but neither the company nor the state would own the pipeline or be liable for the debt. Debt responsibility would fall on privately owned companies that build, own and operate the pipeline. The governor says the project could help Alaska deliver up to 6 Bcf per day to the nation. The project would bring good jobs and revenue to the state. ExxonMobil and Phillips Petroleum have been studying the feasibility of building a pipeline through Canada. The pipeline's cost has been estimated at $15 billion - $20 billion. Bob Brooks GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System http://gpcm.rbac.com