Subject: NYMEX Technical Update
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2001 11:34:40 -0700 (PDT)

As I indicated in the Friday, July 20 morning meeting, Thursday's price action whereby prompt August took out the previous low of 3.003 on the continuation chart has opened the door for significant downside potential.  With an Access low of 2.881 and Friday's close at 2.955, here's a look at the current market structure:

4.640 to 3.003 = < III> dn
3.003 to 3.450 = <IV> up
3.450 to ????  = < V> dn

Assuming 3.450 marked the end of the corrective wave <IV> up, the end of impulse wave <V> down has three realistic targets (2.615, 2.365, and 1.970) which essentially remain in effect until prices close > 3.145.  In summary:  

3.145 = minimizes the 1.970 downside target if closes > 3.145 (.7862 of 3.215 to 2.881)

3.070 = overlap point; for this current move down to look like bottoming action, spot futures must at least close > 3.070.

2.955 = Friday, July 20 close for NGQ1. 

2.615 = minimum implied target

2.365 = .852 of entire 1.020 to 10.100 multi-rear rally from Jan 92 to Dec 00.

1.970 = most bearish long-term scenario; where length of wave <I> from 10.100 equals length of wave <V>.

Call if you have any questions. LP