Message-ID: <8093720.1075852348899.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 05:40:07 -0700 (PDT) From: doug.leach@enron.com To: greg.whalley@enron.com Subject: FW: Fw: Thoughts from former Dir of Mil History, USAFA Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Leach, Doug X-To: Whalley, Greg X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \GWHALLE (Non-Privileged)\Inbox X-Origin: WHALLEY-G X-FileName: GWHALLE (Non-Privileged).pst thought you would find this of interest > > Subject: Thoughts from former Dir of Mil History, USAFA > > A friend forwarded this to me. I think it well worth reading. > > << From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) > Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of > military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an > "open letter to Americans." > > Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001, > Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's > attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. > As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a > different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won or > lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,politicians or soldiers. > > Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the media, and even our own > government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally > deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of > mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated > adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I > deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels > that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not > only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, > but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 > years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation had > to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II. > > These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not > underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the > world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is > to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman > underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more > important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better > said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause. > > How committed are we America? And for how long? In addition to demonstrating > great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of > the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, > namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some > of these men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made > perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect > the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come. > This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the > good ol' U.S. of A. These men will not go easily into the night. They do not > fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional > strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the > underdog in this fight. > > As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for > the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously > trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better > than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, > but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the > occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a > war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our > enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will > be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as > many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. > > Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on > multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive > until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. > > For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself > and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted > because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will > not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike > with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be > helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the > coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked > aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the > ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. > > We must also be patient with our military leaders. Unlike Americans who are > eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their > side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping > to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to fight. > This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and > patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach > for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North > Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated > the United States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle. > American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in > 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they > returned. Although we hope > that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the > concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, > but also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock > infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities. > > These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the > average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our > resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will > of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy > has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn. > He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but > if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most > often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is > a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, > (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and > probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order. > > Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not > just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or > Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to > win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more > hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we > will eventually prevail. Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has > shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I > could do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, > and continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is > certain. > > If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain. > God Bless America > Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) > Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy > >>