Subject: Senate Drama Affects Energy Bill Outlook
From: [email-masked]
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Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 03:21:00 -0700 (PDT)

At 1pm Houston time today, Senator James Jeffords (R-VT) will announce that 
he is switching from the Republican Party to become an Independent voting 
with the Democrats.  If this happens, control of the Senate will switch to 
the Democrats, which will give the Dems a majority and control of the 
Senate.  

? All committee chairs would become Democratic and the Dems would control the 
legislative agenda
 ( Energy bills, California bailout, possible investigation of who influenced 
the Cheney plan etc.).  In a profound ideological  shift, Sen. Murkowski (R- 
AK) would be replaced by Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) as chair of the Senate Energy 
Committee

? The recommendations for loosening regulations for oil/gas drilling, coal 
and power as well as incentives for new generation contained in the Cheney 
bill are likely to be heavily revised in favor of more conservation-oriented 
measures.

? The tax bill will likely be downsized, particularly if Jeffords makes his 
switch immediately.  The timing is important because the Senate-House 
conference on the bill must be appointed immediately.

? All presidential appointments would be controlled by the Dems.  This is 
significant because of the large number of sub-cabinet level appointments 
that need to be approved.

At the same time, Republicans are trying to convince Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA), 
who already votes Republican, to switch to the Republican party.  If this 
happens, it will cancel out the expected Jeffords move.  Initial reports are 
that Miller will not switch.

One other caveat -- Jeffords has pondered a switch in the past and then 
flaked out.  But if Jeffords goes through with it and Miller stays put, the 
balance of power in Washington will be tipped in favor of the Democrats.