Message-ID: <893964.1075842022584.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 07:19:31 -0800 (PST) From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com To: john.zufferli@enron.com Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Jan 31, 2002 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON X-To: Zufferli, John X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Zufferli, John\Deleted Items X-Origin: ZUFFERLI-J X-FileName: john zufferli 6-26-02.PST [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 31, 2002 at 0= 8:58AM EST Commentary last updated: Thursday, Jan 31, 2002 at 09:07AM ES= T Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratula= tions Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQ= UILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visi= t: AMS or Aquila New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have A= dobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition = of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Thursday, January 31, 20= 02 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] EC= AR(CTR) 51 +2 ERCOT(SP) 61 +2 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 35 +2= MAPP(HP) 24 +2 NPCC(NE) 29 +3 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 37 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -1 = WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 48 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 22 36 34 17 70 55 42 Max 42 27 40 37 = 23 74 65 48 Min 32 20 27 31 12 68 47 38 Range 10 7 13 6 11 6 18 10 StD-P 1.= 8 2.0 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 3.5 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to = See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Disc= ussion: The Great Lakes and New England see the full effects of a winter = storm. Colder air settling South and East over the next several days as sto= rms remain active. It is a very active weather map with extremes on it. Fo= r example, Tucson, AZ saw snow yesterday, Kansas City Ice, Chicago has seen= almost a foot of snow the last 24 hours and Washington DC was around 80 de= grees yesterday. This storm has been a slow mover, but should start to acce= lerate to the Northeast today. The next system in the short term is a quick= clipper system coming through the Great Lakes and heading out to sea. It m= ay rapidly intensify off the coast late in the period, but probably too far= offshore for any real problems. The air behind all of this is cold, but no= t arctic. Even though the five day numbers remain below normal in the West = and ! above in the East due to current extremes, the overall pattern will b= e relaxing for a few days allowing many areas to gravitate to close to seas= onal norms this weekend. Tomorrow: Friday, February 1, 2002 Syncrasy'= s Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 +2 = ERCOT(SP) 51 -1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 65 +5 MAIN(CTR) 32 +2 MAPP(HP) 24 -= 1 NPCC(NE) 41 +4 SERC(SE) 63 +1 SPP(SP) 41 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 31 +1= WSCC(SW) 51 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE= NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 44 36 23 66 46 47 Max 37 35 50 40 31 74 54 52 Mi= n 26 21 36 32 16 62 40 42 Range 11 14 14 8 15 12 14 10 StD-P 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.= 0 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Wea= ther Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Saturday, February= 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][= IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAG= E] ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 52 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 NC MAAC(NE) 38 NC MAIN(CTR= ) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 29 NC NPCC(NE) 26 -1 SERC(SE) 52 NC SPP(SP) 44 +1 WSCC(NW)= 40 NC WSCC(RK) 33 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [= IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 30 28 37 26 54 48 50 Max 31 34= 47 41 33 67 51 55 Min 24 27 20 34 17 47 42 46 Range 7 7 27 7 16 20 9 9 StD= -P 1.9 2.1 6.9 2.1 4.1 5.2 2.4 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here= to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: = Sunday, February 3, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Ma= trix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to = enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 57 -2 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE= ) 37 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 NC MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 25 NC SERC(SE) 52 -2 SPP(SP= ) 49 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 -1 Range Standard Dev= iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 26 38 29 53= 51 52 Max 32 36 32 42 38 57 55 57 Min 28 27 19 34 24 47 46 48 Range 4 9 13= 8 14 10 9 9 StD-P 1.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 = 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility M= atrix Day 5: Monday, February 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp.= Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cl= ick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 -1 ERCOT(SP) 57 -4 FRCC(S= E) 68 -3 MAAC(NE) 39 -1 MAIN(CTR) 32 +1 MAPP(HP) 28 +2 NPCC(NE) 27 -2 SERC(= SE) 53 -1 SPP(SP) 49 +5 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 58 NC Ra= nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 2= 9 32 27 39 28 51 52 54 Max 31 36 31 43 37 56 57 58 Min 26 30 22 33 19 45 48= 49 Range 5 6 9 10 18 11 9 9 StD-P 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.8 5.9 3.5 2.8 2.2 Count 10= 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: More active weather is expec= ted in the 6-10 day period. Winter storm enthusiasts may see a couple of ma= jor storms the first two weeks of February if the MRF is correct. These wil= l likely track farther to the South and East than recent storms opening up = the East coast to some potential snow and ice. The Canadian once again hint= s at a real cold surface high coming down next weekend. It does not show up= in the others, but the overall pattern would be supportive of a colder pat= tern. I don't see the numbers more than a few degrees below normal. The mai= n story could be the storms rather than the cold if the models verify. = Day 6: Tuesday, February 5, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary = information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IM= AGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +2 ERCOT(SP) 58 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 37 +1 MAIN(C= TR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 28 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 -1 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 42 -2 WSCC(N= W) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 26 40 31 51 50 54 Max 32 = 36 31 44 38 55 57 59 Min 28 25 20 35 25 45 44 50 Range 4 11 11 9 13 10 13 9= StD-P 1.1 2.8 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.1 3.9 2.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to= See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Wedne= sday, February 6, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matr= ix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en= large) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +2 ERCOT(SP) 59 -4 FRCC(SE) 68 NC MAAC(NE) = 38 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 29 NC SERC(SE) 49 -5 SPP(SP) = 48 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 -1 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 34 28 39 34 50 4= 9 54 Max 33 37 32 43 41 54 56 59 Min 29 30 21 32 26 46 41 51 Range 4 7 11 1= 1 15 8 15 8 StD-P 1.1 1.9 3.7 3.2 4.6 2.8 4.8 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Cli= ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 8: Thursday, February 7, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 52 -10 FRCC(SE) 55 = -6 MAAC(NE) 30 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 -1 MAPP(HP) 30 +3 NPCC(NE) 20 +3 SERC(SE) 42= -7 SPP(SP) 42 -1 WSCC(NW) 35 +2 WSCC(RK) 28 +7 WSCC(SW) 53 +6 Range St= andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 34 3= 0 38 34 50 53 54 Max 35 39 33 43 42 57 60 60 Min 31 30 22 33 24 45 47 49 Ra= nge 4 9 11 10 18 12 13 11 StD-P 0.9 2.9 3.4 2.9 5.1 4.4 4.1 3.8 Count 9 9 9= 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatil= ity Matrix Day 9: Friday, February 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta T= emp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -5 ERCOT(SP) 55 -4 FR= CC(SE) 58 -9 MAAC(NE) 33 -7 MAIN(CTR) 31 +3 MAPP(HP) 32 +8 NPCC(NE) 26 -6 S= ERC(SE) 44 -11 SPP(SP) 49 +12 WSCC(NW) 33 -6 WSCC(RK) 27 +2 WSCC(SW) 52 +3 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW = Mean 32 34 32 37 31 52 55 52 Max 35 37 35 43 40 58 59 60 Min 28 31 28 33 25= 47 49 44 Range 7 6 7 10 15 11 10 16 StD-P 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 2.3 4.3 = Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Saturday, February 9, 2002 Syncrasy's C= hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -8 ERC= OT(SP) 60 +8 FRCC(SE) 64 -6 MAAC(NE) 30 -12 MAIN(CTR) 37 +8 MAPP(HP) 30 +1 = NPCC(NE) 24 -2 SERC(SE) 48 -9 SPP(SP) 44 +4 WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 18 -7 W= SCC(SW) 50 -6 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE N= W RK SE SP SW Mean 32 27 26 31 20 49 50 43 Max 34 33 31 36 28 52 56 55 Min = 28 23 22 24 18 46 43 34 Range 6 10 9 12 10 6 13 21 StD-P 2.6 3.2 1.7 4.8 2.= 8 2.1 4.2 8.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around an= d formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? T= rader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenerg= y.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09