Message-ID: <23015264.1075842023247.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 07:22:37 -0800 (PST) From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com To: john.zufferli@enron.com Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Jan 30, 2002 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON X-To: Zufferli, John X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Zufferli, John\Deleted Items X-Origin: ZUFFERLI-J X-FileName: john zufferli 6-26-02.PST [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Jan 30, 2002 at = 07:04AM EST Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Jan 30, 2002 at 09:52AM = EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratu= lations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 = AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please vi= sit: AMS or Aquila New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have= Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definitio= n of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Wednesday, January 30,= 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 43 +1 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 32= NC MAPP(HP) 20 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 +1 SERC(SE) 76 +2 SPP(SP) 37 -2 WSCC(NW) 34 = NC WSCC(RK) 19 NC WSCC(SW) 46 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAG= E] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 18 42 32 16 71 63 42 Max 37 22 46 = 35 19 76 66 47 Min 28 14 35 28 11 68 57 37 Range 9 8 11 7 8 8 9 10 StD-P 1.= 8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.0 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to = See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Disc= ussion: A major winter storm will pound the Plains, Lakes and New England= the next couple of days. Medium range models now suggest this may NOT be w= inters final gasp. I don't believe I hype storms as much as many forecast= ers, but the current storm now forming in the Plains deserves some attentio= n. Some serious snow and ice accumulations are possible from Oklahoma NE to= Wisconsin and eventually to Interior New England. Copious rains will fall = in the warm sector. This storm should end the recent record warmth in the E= ast with signs now that it may not return for sometime. One thing that has = my attention is this current situation is colder than forecasted in the col= d sector of the storm and thats the first time this winter the models have = underdone the cold. Until now, its been the other way around. I am not look= ing for an! ything bitter under a split flow jet stream, but its late Janua= ry and early February and it can still get cold. Also, the pattern while te= mporarily taking a break from the storms after this current event looks to = reload again in the medium range. The short term temperatures still reflect= the heat in front of this winter storm, so most of the East is still above= normal while the West is below. Tomorrow: Thursday, January 31, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 49 -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -3 FRCC(SE) 82 +1 MAAC(NE) 49 +7 MAIN(CTR) 32 NC MAPP= (HP) 23 +2 NPCC(NE) 26 +3 SERC(SE) 73 +1 SPP(SP) 35 -2 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(= RK) 25 NC WSCC(SW) 48 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 22 36 35 18 71 54 43 Max 39 29 43 38 24 77= 62 48 Min 30 18 25 31 11 68 47 39 Range 9 11 18 7 13 9 15 9 StD-P 2.1 2.1 = 3.4 1.5 3.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Ea= ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Friday, Febr= uary 1, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [= IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +1 ERCOT(SP) 51 -2 FRCC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) 58 +3 MAIN= (CTR) 29 +2 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 35 -6 SERC(SE) 62 +2 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC= (NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAG= E] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 42 35 22 65 46 47 Max 3= 4 31 47 40 30 74 53 52 Min 26 21 33 32 13 62 38 42 Range 8 10 14 8 17 12 15= 10 StD-P 1.8 2.7 3.6 2.2 4.0 3.3 3.8 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Cli= ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 4: Saturday, February 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 54 NC FRCC(SE) 74 += 2 MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 31 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 +1 SERC(SE) 52 = NC SPP(SP) 43 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 33 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Sta= ndard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 29 27= 37 25 55 47 50 Max 31 34 42 40 34 67 52 54 Min 23 26 20 32 15 46 41 46 Ran= ge 8 8 22 8 19 21 11 8 StD-P 1.8 1.9 5.9 2.4 4.5 5.3 3.5 2.1 Count 10 10 10= 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vo= latility Matrix Day 5: Sunday, February 3, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: D= elta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 60= NC FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 -1 MAIN(CTR) 33 -2 MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 2= 5 -2 SERC(SE) 54 +2 SPP(SP) 47 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 -1 WSCC(SW) 58= +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP= SW Mean 30 29 27 37 29 53 51 52 Max 32 35 32 42 36 58 56 57 Min 27 24 15 3= 3 22 47 46 48 Range 5 11 17 9 14 11 10 9 StD-P 1.5 3.4 4.1 2.5 4.1 3.2 2.9 = 1.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast = Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: There are severa= l considerations in the 6-10 day period. First, we could briefly turn on th= e "Lake Effect" snow machine with a weak Clipper system early next week. Th= is should not be anywhere near the magnitude of the Buffalo Christmas event= , but is the first one since then. It drags a moderately cold airmass in be= hind it. Then, later in the period the Southern jet stream becomes active o= nce again. Most models show another sizeable winter storm mid to late next = week and at a farther South latitude than the current one. Now, I dont see = this 6-10 day period as particularly cold in a relative sense though certai= nly it will be chillier than recent periods. Numbers may turn out a bit bel= ow normal especially over the Northern half of the USA. Some of the models = just past this period suggest a more significant Canadian high woul! d be p= oised to drop down. The warming of the Canadian prairies does not look as l= ikely as I have thought over the past few days, so this idea may have some = merit. If the surface pressures forecast turn out to verify, the ocean indi= ces(NAO and PNA) switch their signals and we get some snowcover the next 10= days from potential storms, then this may all come to pass. It would not b= e an exaggeration to suggest the coldest air mass of the season could come = down the second week of February. Day 6: Monday, February 4, 2002 = Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: D= elta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 -3 ERCOT(SP) 60= -1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 40 -1 MAIN(CTR) 30 -5 MAPP(HP) 26 -3 NPCC(NE) 2= 9 -3 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 44 -4 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 -3 WSCC(SW) 58= NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP= SW Mean 28 30 29 40 29 52 52 54 Max 31 35 33 42 35 57 56 58 Min 21 25 21 3= 5 20 47 46 50 Range 10 10 12 7 15 10 10 8 StD-P 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.5 5.7 3.1 3.0= 2.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi= thin the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Tuesday, February 5, 2002 Syncrasy's= Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -7 E= RCOT(SP) 59 -6 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 36 -5 MAIN(CTR) 31 -4 MAPP(HP) 27 NC= NPCC(NE) 27 -5 SERC(SE) 51 -4 SPP(SP) 45 -6 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 38 -2 = WSCC(SW) 60 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 32 26 39 32 51 49 54 Max 32 35 32 43 39 57 56 59 Min= 25 29 22 36 25 46 41 51 Range 7 6 10 7 14 11 15 8 StD-P 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.= 5 3.5 4.8 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Wednesday, February 6, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 22 -13 ERCOT(SP) 56 -7 FRCC(SE) 57 -8 MAAC(NE) 25 -14 MAIN(CTR) 30 -2 = MAPP(HP) 31 +9 NPCC(NE) 17 -19 SERC(SE) 43 -8 SPP(SP) 44 -7 WSCC(NW) 33 NC = WSCC(RK) 28 +3 WSCC(SW) 51 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 33 26 38 34 51 53 54 Max 33 37 31 43 = 41 56 60 60 Min 27 30 19 33 26 45 46 51 Range 6 7 12 10 15 11 14 9 StD-P 1.= 6 2.0 4.2 3.4 4.9 3.8 3.2 3.6 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each= Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, Febr= uary 7, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [= IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +4 ERCOT(SP) 62 +5 FRCC(SE) 62 -9 MAAC(NE) 31 -10 MAI= N(CTR) 34 +10 MAPP(HP) 27 +16 NPCC(NE) 17 -7 SERC(SE) 49 -7 SPP(SP) 42 +7 W= SCC(NW) 33 -1 WSCC(RK) 21 -1 WSCC(SW) 47 -2 Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 31 29 37 30 52 55 51 Ma= x 34 38 34 43 41 57 60 60 Min 30 26 21 33 21 48 48 45 Range 4 12 13 10 20 9= 12 15 StD-P 1.0 4.1 4.2 3.2 6.8 2.6 4.3 4.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click He= re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1= 0: Friday, February 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility= Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image = to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +16 ERCOT(SP) 59 +15 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MA= AC(NE) 40 +7 MAIN(CTR) 28 +18 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 32 +20 SERC(SE) 55 +1= 1 SPP(SP) 36 NC WSCC(NW) 39 +7 WSCC(RK) 25 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 -1 Range Stan= dard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 27 31 = 33 21 49 47 43 Max 29 32 34 38 27 57 54 53 Min 22 19 26 28 13 39 34 35 Rang= e 7 13 8 10 14 18 20 18 StD-P 3.1 3.6 2.3 4.0 3.3 5.5 5.9 7.4 Count 6 6 6 6= 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatilit= y Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE= ]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be v= iewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.co= m [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09