Subject: FW: May forecast of EES CA loads
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 04:59:28 -0700 (PDT)

Mo:

Mike Frazier's May load forecast for the EES-CA portfolio comes in under the April forecast. April to May HLH drops from 1250 MW's to 1100 MW's while LLH drops from 900 MW's to 800 MW's. However, please plan on making May purchases today at a level equivalent to 50% of April forecast levels. I have provided a cash forecast to Kim Nelson based on 50% of April load forecast incorporating May forward prices, i.e., Kim is expecting to wire up to $15 million out this afternoon. As discussed before, you and M. Driscoll should plan on purchasing the remainder of EES base HLH and LLH needs next Tuesday (4/23). If May prices hold steady, Kim Nelson should expect to wire out another $10-$11 million on Tuesday (4/23). Just a reminder: please attempt to limit purchases from Avista.

EPMI May purchases: hold off executing purchases until I give the word. We should have a green light from the cash committee shortly.

Thanks.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Frazier, Michael  
Sent:	Wednesday, April 17, 2002 8:37 PM
To:	Baughman, Edward
Cc:	Ring, Richard
Subject:	May forecast of EES CA loads

Ed
The attached file includes current model estimates for May 2002 loads in California.  I've included known meter installs and contract rejections for Univ.California, et.al.  There will undoubtedly be changes in both increments and decrements to load as a result of timing changes and a host of factors we just don't know now.  In my opinion, additional losses of UCCSU/LAUSD accounts and those with natural contract expirations slated in May will approximately offset the remaining unscheduled meter installations and missing data, so that the net impact will be be small in either direction.  Hansen Cement is included in the North at a fairly steady volume of about 24 mW (average).

To me, these volumes imply that purchases of about 500 mW in NP-15 and 600 mW in SP-15 on-peak and about 400 mW off-peak in both regions might be pretty safe levels, but I leave that determination to you.  This is just what I can estimate from a number of variables available at this time, including assumed normal weather (a forecast is available for only the beginning of the period).  The overall impact of added meters offset by losses is a reduction from the previous estimate around 7% of total volumes.  If you went ahead with half of last month's purchases today, then you have covered 55-60% of the average load projections shown here.

We will, as always, continue to refine estimates of future load as more information becomes available.  Call me with any questions.

Michael
x 53200